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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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Skiing? Did he take a trip to the Rockies to escape the mental pain and anguish caused by the PSUHoffman storm threat, Ji, and the weenie population readying the noose if snopocalypse isn't replicated? yikes.pngthumbsupsmileyanim.gif

No he is in our area to ski, but if this threat does not work out he may have to go to the Swiss alps to escape the wrath here :pimp: .

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Yeah but I'm encouraged that all the models are settling on a relatively good surface low track and that this will at the very least be a close call with rain/snow. I

I looked at the SREFs and the freezing line at the surface is along I-95 at the height of the event, but further northwest in the hours before. 850s are plenty cold for the area and cool further as the storm wraps up. I guess that would be drizzle/light rain to a snow thump NW of I-95 taken literally.

IMO, this is all pointing towards a pretty classic NW suburbs storm. I don't think you'll need to be way out in WV to see good snow. Maybe just Leesburg and Westminster.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER BUT HAS COME INTO BETTERAGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND GENERAL TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOWTHAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK. NOT TOO SURPRISED TOSEE THIS SLOWER TREND AS IT HAS HAPPENED IN SOME OF THE PAST BIGGERSTORMS SO FAR THIS WINTER WHILE THE MODELS TRIED TO HANDLE THECOMPLEX NATURE OF SRN AND NRN STREAM PHASING. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEPERIOD FOR PRECIP FROM THE LOW IS NOW DELAYED UNTIL LATE TUE NGTWITH MOST OF IT FALLING DURING THE DAY WED. PRECIP EVEN MAY LINGERUNTIL WED EVE. IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT THE STORM TRACKSWEST OF THE AREA...AND LESS LIKELY THAT IT TRACKS OUT TO SEA ANDMISSES THE REGION ENTIRELY.ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STORM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MIXED WINTRYPRECIP TO THE AREA IS INCREASING...THE EXACT PTYPE...RAIN AND/ORSNOW...STILL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT ISSUE YET TO BE DETERMINED.ALTHOUGH CLIMO SAYS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST/NRNROCKIES...AND THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM CAPEHATTERAS TO 50-150 MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WOULD FAVOR AN I-95SNOWSTORM...THERMAL PROFILES SEEN IN THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT ARA/SN MIX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH MOSTLY SN BUT LESS PRECIPFARTHER WEST. MODIFIED ARCTIC HIPRES THAT IS CURRENTLY SUPPLYINGTHE REGION WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ALREADY WILL HAVE MOVED WELLEAST OF THE AREA AND OUT INTO THE NRN ATLANTIC BY THE START OF THEEVENT. WITHOUT THIS HIGH TO THE WEST OR NORTH...THE MID-ATLANTICREGION WILL NOT HAVE A STRONG SOURCE OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITHDURING THE EVENT /ASIDE FROM DYNAMICAL COOLING AND NE FLOW AROUNDTHE DEVELOPING LOW/. ALSO...SINCE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULDFALL DURING THE DAY WED...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE FCSTD TOBE ABOVE FREEZING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MELTING OF SNOW TO SOMEDEGREE.

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euro ens mean looks decent.. a little east of the op, 850 0c never gets much west of d.c... track pretty similar tho, main diff is low is a bit weaker and slower (6 hrs or so)

still warmish at the surface tho.. backs 32 into western pa/cdntral oh with small 32 circle in wv at 18z WED. 40 is se of dc tho so as with others it's not toasty but marginal at the surface.32 creeps back to blue ridge area as low pulls out at 00z thurs

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still warmish at the surface tho.. backs 32 into western pa/cdntral oh with small 32 circle in wv at 18z WED. 40 is se of dc tho so as with others it's not toasty but marginal at the surface.32 creeps back to blue ridge area as low pulls out at 00z thurs

Despite the flip-flopping, the American models have mostly been more east and cooler while the Euro and GGEM have been more inland and warm.

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oof yeah that is pretty ugly

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znampmsl10mwinds2mtemps072.gif

prob because no precip makes it in to cool the atmosphere

850s have a colder look, so I don't think this run would be any warmer than the Euro or GFS if precip made it in. We are going to need heavy stuff to cool the surface, period.

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850s have a colder look, so I don't think this run would be any warmer than the Euro or GFS if precip made it in. We are going to need heavy stuff to cool the surface, period.

yeah i suppose that makes sense. cold is so marginal on every model though i think the max area is going to be pretty small horizontally if there is one. heck the weaker 500mb vort on the nam sorta makes sense with more waves trailing right behind it and the way this season has gone.

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yeah i suppose that makes sense. cold is so marginal on every model though i think the max area is going to be pretty small horizontally if there is one. heck the weaker 500mb vort on the nam sorta makes sense with more waves trailing right behind it and the way this season has gone.

There will be a thin stripe where the precip is heavy enough to pile up snow and cool the surface. East of that will be rain and west will be the fringe zone. Nailing this all down will be super-tough.

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The strung out 500h is the culprit the run. Without the evaporational cooling it would warm at the surface.

i have a hard time trusting the nam in this range on those details so i guess ill toss it for now

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yeah i suppose that makes sense. cold is so marginal on every model though i think the max area is going to be pretty small horizontally if there is one. heck the weaker 500mb vort on the nam sorta makes sense with more waves trailing right behind it and the way this season has gone.

The weaker 500h does make sense with so many impulses on its heals. That doesn't mean it's right but does mean you can't just toss it.

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