usedtobe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm going to suggest it was all about cold air damming. The models are somewhat biased and often seem to under-estimate cold air damming. Oddly, for that setup, areas with very borderline boundary layer temperatures changed over to rain, freezing rain or sleet and then expectantly flipped back to sleet and snow. I'm guessing that 850 mb warm air advection underperformed but can't tell you why. The winds were really light during that event which certainly helped. Usually the stronger the wind field the harder it is for cold air damming to hold on. This is a tricky situation because the surface temps will be above freezing prior to the event. Heck, I'm close to freezing here today. However, the dewpoints will be low which should allow some evaporational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 this is 312 hours out but its still really fun to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It was a really interesting event to watch IMBY. I was really surprised how cold it stayed and am hoping cold air can make it happen this time. It would be an interesting discussion to read what others think about why warm air advection at 850 mb was so weak and so easily overcome. It seems that boundary layer temperatures should have warmed enough to reduce frozen precipitation but that did not happen. Furthermore, there was not much dew point depression; dew points rapidly rose to near freezing yet the frozen stuff hung on. Maybe surface winds had just enough of a sustained northerly component to keep the vast majority of the lower atmosphere cold enough for white stuff, sleet and graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 this is 312 hours out but its still really fun to see DC snow rhombus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The winds were really light during that event which certainly helped... Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W4CGT Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks like us folk out in western Loudoun might still have some hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 this is 312 hours out but its still really fun to see How much for Bermuda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks like us folk out in western Loudoun might still have some hope Might? - I would think that even the DC and Balt metro areas still have "some" hope as you say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I absolutely think I95 has hope. Being in a slightly western suburb of Bmore I'm actually pretty optimistic for an all snow event. The Euro has been overdramatic with temps and storm track all winter so with current guidance being as it is I think snow is far from out of the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The winds were really light during that event which certainly helped. Usually the stronger the wind field the harder it is for cold air damming to hold on. This is a tricky situation because the surface temps will be above freezing prior to the event. Heck, I'm close to freezing here today. However, the dewpoints will be low which should allow some evaporational cooling. I don't think Kocin is going to be teasing me during his presentation next conference. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Any Mets take a look at the 15z SREFs yet? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I like the look of the SREFs. Surface looks warm at 75 but cools as the storm gets closer. 850 cools fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't think Kocin is going to be teasing me during his presentation next conference. lol Your sig is offensive and disgusting. Just kiddin- good season up in your parts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Your sig is offensive and disgusting. Just kiddin- good season up in your parts! Last season was hell, but I have to admit that all the ribbing I took at the conference was fun.....great group of guys and it was all good natured. GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Last season was hell, but I have to admit that all the ribbing I took at the conference was fun.....great group of guys and it was all good natured. GL. Don't worry we will make up the entire seasonal deficit between us and you with this upcoming storm according to IAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Don't worry we will make up the entire seasonal deficit between us and you with this upcoming storm according to IAN. LOL I think March kick's azz for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Last season was hell, but I have to admit that all the ribbing I took at the conference was fun.....great group of guys and it was all good natured. GL. I haven't been to a conference yet but I'm thinking I need to go and learn a few things. Plus it would be fun to meet some peeps from the board. I'm pretty easy to get along with. My board name is actually my real nickname. Been called that for 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Don't worry we will make up the entire seasonal deficit between us and you with this upcoming storm according to IAN. I'm workin to subtract some of what they have already seen fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL I think March kick's azz for everyone. Big snow that's gone in a couple days? I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I like the look of the SREFs. Surface looks warm at 75 but cools as the storm gets closer. 850 cools fast. The sref 2m temps are quite bit warmer than the previous run and the run is quite a bit wetter probably because more members have a track closer to the coast. Living in Dc, I don't think the warm temps are a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL I think March kick's azz for everyone. We are weenies, we refuse to wait until then. There will be a revolt in here if we do not get any snow from this storm. We will sacrifice PSUHOFFMAN if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm workin to subtract some of what they have already seen fall. . This area sucks and Wes is making me even more depressed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Any Mets take a look at the 15z SREFs yet? Thoughts? No met, of course, but they're obviously much wetter, and there is also more consistency throughout than this morning. I guess I view them as positive in that they all throw more precip back to the Shen Valley. There are some that are very warm though. One thing that might be said is that we might start to see more consistent modeling and a more certain forecast soon. Who knows what that will be. I'm encouraged by today's models though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 We are weenies, we refuse to wait until then. There will be a revolt in here if we do not get any snow from this storm. We will sacrifice PSUHOFFMAN if that happens. PSUhoffman mentioned he was drinking and taking tequila shots last night--it must be taking an extensive mental toll on his psyche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The sref 2m temps are quite bit warmer than the previous run and the run is quite a bit wetter probably because more members have a track closer to the coast. Living in Dc, I don't think the warm temps are a good thing. Yeah but I'm encouraged that all the models are settling on a relatively good surface low track and that this will at the very least be a close call with rain/snow. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 PSUhoffman mentioned he was drinking and taking tequila shots last night--it must be taking an extensive mental toll on his psyche. He is skiing today, and if this storm does not start looking colder soon i am going to put a big tree right in the middle of his slope . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ian how do the EURO ensembles look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 He is skiing today, and if this storm does not start looking colder soon i am going to put a big tree right in the middle of his slope . Skiing? Did he take a trip to the Rockies to escape the mental pain and anguish caused by the PSUHoffman storm threat, Ji, and the weenie population readying the noose if snopocalypse isn't replicated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ian how do the EURO ensembles look? About 30% of the Euro ensemble members are more amplified than the op and would represent a farther west solution than the op. Most are faster and less amplified. All I have are the H5 spag charts, but that would be my educated guess. It won't be a lot farther east and I think more than anything confirms the suspicions that a 30 hr snowstorm with no block is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I haven't been to a conference yet but I'm thinking I need to go and learn a few things. Plus it would be fun to meet some peeps from the board. I'm pretty easy to get along with. My board name is actually my real nickname. Been called that for 20 years. Go.....not only do you learn, but it also takes the dynamic between you and those you meet to new level; once you know folks personally and you can put a face to the avatar, everything changes for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.