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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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Is that some high pressure (relatively) building to the north and west of the low, I see before me? Also, what's that small vort/shortwave just to the west of the main storm? Was that there before, because I wonder if that's making it scoot out to sea more, rather than turn more northeast?

Was thinking the same on both counts. Definitely a good run for the GFS though. If it had continued to trend S or E then we would have been in trouble. Those of us in Central MD are still looking for a westward shift but that might not be too much to ask at this point. I am worried about that kicker though... hopefully we can continue to trend west.

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Wow, looking at the loop of the latest GFS I would say the H5 track is VERY similar to the surprise MECS/HECS in January 2000 that surprised the mets. It's funny because it closed off just a little before the models projected and bit westward and slammed the coast. Wouldn't it be nice for a repeat of that on this one?

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Wow, looking at the loop of the latest GFS I would say the H5 track is VERY similar to the surprise MECS/HECS in January 2000 that surprised the mets. It's funny because it closed off just a little before the models projected and bit westward and slammed the coast. Wouldn't it be nice for a repeat of that on this one?

There are plenty of differences though, and the models back then were vastly inferior to what we run now. The one interesting aspect that will be similar is the interaction once the upper energy hits the GoM .... even today's models don't handle this kind of situation that well (people talk about convective feedback...but sometimes organized convection does in fact transfer information upscale....through large scale latent heat release and the generation of diabatic low level potential vorticity).

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