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The Psuhoffman Storm


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From LWX...

FOR TUE NGT WE HV CHC OF S WRN 3/4 OF THE CWA W/ LKLY R/S FM I-95

E...THEN CHC R/S E OF THE MTNS MJAORITY OF THE AREA DURG WED.

GIVEN THE WIDE MDL DISPARITY THAT SEEMS LK A REASONABLE PLAN OF

ATTACK...BUT CONFIDENCE RMNS *LOW* W/ THIS SYSTEM. MDLS HV HAD GRT

DIFFICULTY W/ CSTL STORMS THIS SEASON...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS ONE

MAY HV THE GREATEST MDL DIVERGENCE OF ALL..SO WE`LL ALL WAIT AND

SEE HOW THIS STORM DVLPS NAD MAKE ACCORDING CHGS TO THE FCST. STAY

TUNED.

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The 9z srefs are a little better, but how it gets there is interesting. The individuals show several vastly different scenarios, from a complete whiff, to a soaker in two parts, to a much delayed event. I know many don't put any faith in these, but I think it just emphasizes the high unpredictability of this. I gonna bet that the NAM shows us a completely different look than its 6z run.

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The 9z srefs are a little better, but how it gets there is interesting. The individuals show several vastly different scenarios, from a complete whiff, to a soaker in two parts, to a much delayed event. I know many don't put any faith in these, but I think it just emphasizes the high unpredictability of this. I gonna bet that the NAM shows us a completely different look than its 6z run.

And we have a winner! This is why looking at the ensemble means can be useless and misleading.

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Oy! So I wake up this morning only to find yet more uncertainty especially after the 06Z GFS!! In a way, this is almost amusing and all you can do is shake your head. What's the old joke about some unstable Central American governments...something along the lines of, "if youd don't like the government, it'll change by tomorrow!" Seems to be the case here, if you don't like the look of one model run, wait until the next cycle for something completely different!

It seems the only remotely consistent thing being shown is that this storm is occurring later, more like late Tuesday night into Wednesday night, or there about.

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And we have a winner! This is why looking at the ensemble means can be useless and misleading.

Yup...in a situation like this, very true, when there are a wide range of solutions or a couple of very different ideas that "average out". But in a situation where there's decent agreement, they can be more informative. If I'm not mistaken, ensembles are best used for the medium-longer range to get an idea of the overall longwave flow, and in that they excel much more (EDIT: I'm talking more the global ensembles here).

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NAM is a miss with substantial precip it seems as its out to 84 on Raleigh's site, but looks like more would fall

sim/rad maps will confirm one way or the other once out on ncep

EDIT: and it sis rain east of the mts

Actually looks like a classic hit. Surface temps may be an issues, 850's at 0 just south of DC. Actually one of the better NAM hits if you ask me.

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