Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 6.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

How are you looking at it? :)

we need to thread the needle.. it doesnt work well here. right now it seems like we could get an OK track with not enough cold. storms have not developed fast enough for our neck and that might be the seasonal trend of most note rather than some weird idea that there is a snow eating field around the area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You would think that it would be difficult to model this accurately at this range because of where the players are located currently. If I'm not mistaken, the primary energy is still in the GOA, just coming onshore. And, is the energy in the northern plains at 84 on the NAM the reason that this gets kicked to sea? If so, that energy is way out in the Pacific. Well, someone can educate me on this line of thinking. I'm just hoping for high QPF, just to see if it can actually happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

how can it be a joke when they do look good for right now? as well as the euro ensembles?

on e-wall it looks like about 2 indiv members are very good for dc and the other areas nearby or in a ne/sw line. the others are all warm or too far east. maybe 1 or two more that work for further west. there are a couple with us in some of the comma after missing out on a front end but we'll see how that works out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What are you talking about? Clearly there's still disagreement with the models. And as we saw today there have been huge shifts in the GFS run-to-run. It went from Miller A to Miller B to Miller A OTS to Miller A NC coast and OTS. In one day.

The only thing consistent is that none gave us decent snow! Next...(Looking ahead to Dec 5 storm)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

on e-wall it looks like about 2 indiv members are very good for dc and the other areas nearby or in a ne/sw line. the others are all warm or too far east. maybe 1 or two more that work for further west. there are a couple with us in some of the comma after missing out on a front end but we'll see how that works out.

:huh:

I count about 6 as good hits... one has the storm moving into our region... 3-4 are either OTS or NE of us... and one is no good at all at 96 hrs

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:huh:

I count about 6 as good hits... one has the storm moving into our region... 3-4 are either OTS or NE of us... and one is no good at all at 96 hrs

i dont think so. if nothing else the bl on some will be warm even if the track looks ok. raleigh's are better to glean from but they arent out yet. either way it's not something im going to hang my hat on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i dont think so. if nothing else the bl on some will be warm even if the track looks ok. raleigh's are better to glean from but they arent out yet. either way it's not something im going to hang my hat on.

I was using e-wall's btw. bl are close enough on 4 of them that it should be wet snow for I-95 W... 2 others are more near the BR

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess there is something to be said about seasonal trends. It worked in our favor last year. This year it has seriously screwed me. While the threat is not over, does anyone really have any confidence that this storm will not miss us/me to the S/E. It would fit the trend for sure.

It's hard to have confidence in anything, good or bad, at this point

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is there even a needle to thread here? Does anyone think that H5 dynamics will bring in enough cold air to support snow in any case? I think the latest NAM is as close to a best case scenario as possible and we can't even see past 84 hours. If we get anything over an inch out of this storm I think it would go against the probabilities at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is there even a needle to thread here? Does anyone think that H5 dynamics will bring in enough cold air to support snow in any case? I think the latest NAM is as close to a best case scenario as possible and we can't even see past 84 hours. If we get anything over an inch out of this storm I think it would go against the probabilities at this point.

The chances seem to be diminishing, but we cannot rule anything out at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The chances seem to be diminishing, but we cannot rule anything out at this point.

LWX NWS gives three scenarios. One to the west GGEM/NAM with all rain. One ECMWF/GFS ensemble compromise for mostly snow. And one GFS far east and out to sea. As far as I can tell that indicates there is a needle that could be threaded here. Wide range of possible solutions still.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LWX NWS gives three scenarios. One to the west GGEM/NAM with all rain. One ECMWF/GFS ensemble compromise for mostly snow. And one GFS far east and out to sea. As far as I can tell that indicates there is a needle that could be threaded here. Wide range of possible solutions still.

there's still a pretty sizable spread on the gfs ensemble members. the mean is better than the parts that go into it imo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...