jlewis1111 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If the high is out in the ocean storm goes west right? Isnt that meteorology anyways this is my last post for the day as im on my 5th post lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah the NAM is deff better..we have certainly seen at least a small trend with most operaational models to a slightly less amped, more east solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If you look at the 84 hr forecast on the nam you can see the temps start to collapse as the precipitation starts. The run is not a bad one despite everyone's gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If the high is out in the ocean storm goes west right? Isnt that meteorology anyways this is my last post for the day as im on my 5th post lol Can a mod help him out so he doesn't have to worry about posting at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If you look at the 84 hr forecast on the nam you can see the temps start to collapse as the precipitation starts. The run is not a bad one despite everyone's gloom. on the contrary (at least for me), I like what the NAM has done this run it actually is encouraging Wes, what do you think of that 5H map at 84 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Isn't he right though? Temps are marginal at best. If the storm comes west it's rain, if it goes east we get nothing. It's one thing to just have to worry about precip or temps. But when you have to worry about both............ it ain't happening. i got this..... I was thinking the same b4....however, IF the storm takes a more westerly track, the dynamics also can change. So a simple more "west track more rain scenario" may not be the case depending on 850's and such.......how was that Phin?l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can we lock this up?... I think it would please many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 this ain't bad either at 850 http://www.nco.ncep....am_850_084l.gif EDIT: surface temps may end up being the issue as on the Euro then again, maybe not once the precip starts http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znampmsl10mwinds2mtemps084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Man, you know the weenies need to be shut-down when even Wes is telling them to cheer up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I actually like this run and agree strongly with Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 on the contrary (at least for me), I like what the NAM has done this run it actually is encouraging Wes, what do you think of that 5H map at 84 hrs? But you do tend to be optimistic. The 500h pattern isn't bad, the vort goes to our south and doesn't go negative too early. Of course, it may still be absolutely wrong and jump back west on the next run but it's certainly better than the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can we lock this up?... I think it would please many. it looks prettier if you loop it http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/index_ref_l_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Don't think too hard about it, I was just making a wild guess. On to the nam which looks like the 850 temps are starting to fall as evaporational cooling takes place at 84 hrs. It's not a bad look. I enjoy this kind of discussion (perhaps too much)....even though I work in data assimilation now, my MS Thesis was on a topic related to predictability. For this storm, I'm really starting to like (more) the look of things. I'm not a huge analog person, but I'm starting to see some similarities (NOT a direct analog) to the January 2000 storm (something I did a pretty extensive case study on for my MS thesis). The models really struggled once the mid level energy got close enough to the Gulf....leading to deep precip/convection, latent heat release, and generation of a significant (real) low-level PV anomaly. [Edit: how the energy evolves to get to that point & the large scale set up are quite a bit different] I think others have explained well enough the potential temperature related issues however..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This run is not as dire as the weenie analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 it looks prettier if you loop it http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/index_ref_l_loop.shtml i was just about to post this that looks real good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 But you do tend to be optimistic. The 500h pattern isn't bad, the vort goes to our south and doesn't go negative too early. Of course, it may still be absolutely wrong and jump back west on the next run but it's certainly better than the last one. dabbling in stand-up comedy in your retirement, ehh? hey, I want snow so bad I can taste it, but my gut tells me it ain't happening I continue to hope I am wrong this has the potential to be something great if the NAM could play out AND it could manufacture some cold air, which that 5H map suggests to me it "could" and, if that southern vort could slow a hair and/or the northern stream dive south quicker, then its lights out I BUST BIG TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 one other reason why this run looks positive I forgot to mention is, thicknesses start at 5400 over DCA/BWI though I'd like to see them lower, the fact is they would fall as the storm got wound up imho http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_slp_084l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If you take the mean of all the models, I95 and west gets a pretty good snowstorm. Plus, Wes hasn't gone to bed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 don't know if this has been posted, but I saw Euro ensembles in another thread, and it looked pretty good for this area. It was the NYC/Philly thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How long of an event are we looking at here? I know earlier it was a very long event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 don't know if this has been posted, but I saw Euro ensembles in another thread, and it looked pretty good for this area. It was the NYC/Philly thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 24 hrs. ago, we were looking at some rather extreme scenarios. Today, the models seem to be moving somewhat toward reasonable consensus for a coastal. The GFS is the eastern outlier, but will probably move west with the 18z run. The NAM just swung east to an 84 hr. S, Carolina coastal position w/ rapidly cooling 850 mb temps. inland. Those much chaos still exists, not a bad trend for most in the M.A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This ought to be an interesting 18z GFS run, that has initialized. I want to see if it tries to bring the low a bit further west. I would like to see it somewhat in line with the 18z NAM and 12z EC... perhaps 50 miles east of that. Also, on the 18z NAM at 84, the 850 low would likely go SE of us... which in Wes's book for snow is good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 this is what I was talking about not quite there, but... H5 is pretty close to the weenie storm. However not enough cold air to the NW of the storm may kill our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS is a tick W in the height field through 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GFS still holds on to a dominant northern wave as the secondary backside jet digs S. It will probably be rather elongated and a bit lacking with the eventual southern stream PV max like the 12Z GFS but it may be a little bit W overall. Hard to tell through 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 18z GFS h5 looks a bit further east at the h5 level when you compare it with t he 18z NAM h5 at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Man it is going to be another big QPF bomb but it will have a sharp cutoff as the stretching deformation zone will likely be even sharper given the positive tilt and the northern stream racing ahead of the southern PV max based off its configuration and comparing to the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I would rather have a west track with rain than east with nothing. We need some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 1012 L in GOM at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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