MD Snow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well the it seems like the EURO came into the GFS thinking with a colder solution while the GFS took the EURO path with a LP coming out of the gulf. That is kind of encouraging. We still have the HP problem but I'm kind of liking the GFS and EURO right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Man that is so close...looks to be a decent track thus far or am I missing something? i like it, hope it holds true, but with 3.5 days left, lord only knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Man that is so close...looks to be a decent track thus far or am I missing something? not bad, a little too east -- hat at 96, due east of delmarva at 102 ... 988 at that pt, like our biggies last yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Okay, I give up. I don't remember models even too close to what we've seen this winter since I've been tracking weather (granted, only 10 years or so, but still...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 h5 goes from northern ga/al thru central va and then right off delmarva. most times i'd really like this look except for the high leaving stll. A new player? The incoming HP is probably the key player here. If it is too late, too much warm air will have a chance to flood into the system but if it drops far enough se and is able to supply enough cold air to be wrapped into the low, many of us even at the coast could still get a good dump of snow. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 1" line from dan-ric to northen neck dc near 0.50 cho near 0.50 orf 1.75" Wow, inch in DAN to .23 in Lynchburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How much QPF for BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Whats northern neck area again? EZF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The GGEM has the surface lkow west of the 500mb low over the cold air. The GFS and EURO make more sense keeping the low over the +10C 850 temps off the carolina coast where the Atmosphere is less dense east of the H5 low. Maybe based on the high fields you are right.. but does not mean the solutions we have right now are going to be the right ones. It is clear that the GFS Idea earlier of no gulf low is gone off the table (if it ever really was). There will be a low coming out of the gulf.. timing on when the trough goes negative will now determine the surface track.. For the further east track to verify the trough hast to be still positively tilted as it passes the Mississippi river... and be negative by the time it gets to the coast for it to come up... With out a high pressure to the north though... temperatures are going to be critical in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow, inch in DAN to .23 in Lynchburg. I'm getting .55 or so in DAN, .22 in CHO and over an inch in RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How much QPF for BWI? ~.5, dropping to ~0 at hgr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Did not expect this at all. Hope springs eternal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Maybe based on the high fields you are right.. but does not mean the solutions we have right now are going to be the right ones. It is clear that the GFS Idea earlier of no gulf low is gone off the table (if it ever really was). There will be a low coming out of the gulf.. timing on when the trough goes negative will now determine the surface track.. For the further east track to verify the trough hast to be still positively tilted as it passes the Mississippi river... and be negative by the time it gets to the coast for it to come up... With out a high pressure to the north though... temperatures are going to be critical in this situation. Agreed the low maybe over the warm toungue, but that can easily be further west if the nrn stream doesn't push this everything east fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I-81 looks golden at this point,,,however likely to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can anyone throw out 2m temps on Euro for RIC/DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I-81 looks golden at this point,,,however likely to change Based on the EURO.......hell no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ~.5, dropping to ~0 at hgr Then the complaints from Psuhoffman would really start if that was correct. Can't wait now to see the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Can anyone throw out 2m temps on Euro for RIC/DCA? they warm up quite a bit verbatim during the day..32 line way back into pa at 18z wed when storm is due east of us. near or just west of dc/bwi prior panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Overall I don't think we are looking too bad at this point. Imagine if we had a fat high pressure to the north of us? We'd already be congratulating each other. What's the reality on that HP that might slide down? Anyone have info on that? Just curious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This certainly fits the pattern of further offshore at least it won't be a complete miss according to this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I-81 looks golden at this point,,,however likely to change With no precip? Golden as in sunny? I won't play the seasonal trend card, and I doubt we have a picture of this that's any clearer at this point, but if we get no precip, I will not be surprised. Right now, I think I want the NAM as is. My organ pipe cactus is going to look good in the landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Overall I don't think we are looking too bad at this point. Imagine if we had a fat high pressure to the north of us? We'd already be congratulating each other. What's the reality on that HP that might slide down? Anyone have info on that? Just curious... .... There would be no issues if we had a high pressure in Southern Canada near the lakes... nosing in as it was coming up. HP we have is going to retreat.... the -nao .. is weak and way east based. Now sure it could maybe... possibility it could hold on a little bit longer than what the euro shows, but there nothing that is setting of alarms that would argue for the high to stay in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 QPF complaints incoming. Wait until Ji sees this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 at least it will be a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 QPF complaints incoming. Wait until Ji sees this. QPF for even for our region .1 Harrisburg, PA to Tamaqua, PA up to Scranton, PA all of Ny state .25 just west of DC to Lancaster, PA to Reading to Easton, to Newton, NJ, to Poughkeapske, NY to NW corner of CT .5 Dc to Baltomore to King of Prussia, PA to Newark, Yonkers to Danbury, CT .75 eastern DC to Wilmington DE, to Trenton to NYC to Harford 1" Richmond, VA to near Dover, DE to sandy Hook, NJ to levitown, LI to Norwich, CT 1.25 petersburg, VA to milford, DE to toms river NJ to southhampton LI to Providence RI 1.5 williamsburg, VA to salisbury, MD south of NJ maybe brushing extreme eastern LI into RI that really hurt my eyes Wow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow.... one of the sharper cutoffs you'll see around here right now tho. not safe at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 .... There would be no issues if we had a high pressure in Southern Canada near the lakes... nosing in as it was coming up. HP we have is going to retreat.... the -nao .. is weak and way east based. Now sure it could maybe... possibility it could hold on a little bit longer than what the euro shows, but there nothing that is setting of alarms that would argue for the high to stay in place. Looking at the 12Z GFS there is a high just north of Minnesota...Would be nice to get that puppy to speed up. I'm only weenie wishcasting on that one though. Models did underestimate the cold air from Tuesday. (ice storm) but AGAIN...weenie wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 one of the sharper cutoffs you'll see around here right now tho. not safe at all. Did I miss something? I am assuming this is the Euro QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 at least it will be a cold rain. Wes likes this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Did I miss something? I am assuming this is the Euro QPF? It is. Looks like if you are in NW Montgomery County.. for example if this were all snow, you would see 1-3. SE Fairfax County would be more like 6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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