Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 6.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I missed the euro last night,,,too much to drink. just got up and read Mount Hollys AFD, they are strongly in the Euro/Canadian camp, and mentioned based on that this event would be mostly rain for its entire FA outside the Poconos and NW NJ. so i gather the Euro was pretty toasty? NAM looks like its headed in that direction. Interesting to see how this plays out but what a shame to waste this cold airmass...too transient without any blocking though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I missed the euro last night,,,too much to drink. just got up and read Mount Hollys AFD, they are strongly in the Euro/Canadian camp, and mentioned based on that this event would be mostly rain for its entire FA outside the Poconos and NE NJ. so i gather the Euro was pretty toasty? NAM looks like its headed in that direction. Interesting to see how this plays out but what a shame to waste this cold airmass...too transient without any blocking though.

GGEM and Euro ensembles are all snow but the op runs would be snow-rain-snow

Edit: surface on the euro torches so it would be all rain according to that

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAM solution wouldn't gain a tremendous amount of latitude thanks to the kicker right on it's heels (Just N of MN). If accurate, it would be close- and I'd want to be well west of town say in the Blue Ridge... but it might end better than many think.

The NAM was pretty amped up last storm out past 72 and the verification was a less intense storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GGEM and Euro ensembles are all snow but the op runs would be snow-rain-snow

ok thanks..of course much of Mount Holly FA is east of LWX....and it appears with this storm latitude is not going to be as important. Question to be answered next couple of days is how far inland will the big snows be versus the heavy rain and wind.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are the SREFS run off GFS components? If they they are that could explain why they are in similar camps and why the SREFS isnt like the majority of guidance.

The SREF system is a multi-model ensemble (there are old ETA, WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, and RSM members) with perturbed initial conditions. They all use the previous GFS forecast for boundary conditions just like the operational NAM does, but I'm pretty sure their "control" analysis is from the NAM (i.e. the perturbations in each IC are added to something more like that NAM analysis).

The RSM (regional spectral model) is actually a perturbation model of sorts that relies on/evolves about a GFS state. I don't look closely at the individual SREF members, but I wouldn't be at all shocked if the RSM members typically looked more like the op GFS than the op NAM.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GGEM and Euro ensembles are all snow but the op runs would be snow-rain-snow

Edit: surface on the euro torches so it would be all rain according to that

yeah looking now. ouch thats really toasty. three straight days with high temps in the 20s and lows in the low teens and we could end up with windswept heavy rain...i know some think the blocking has been the issue this winter but you really take your chances in these parts without it...timing becomes soooo critical

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have to be honest at this point and say that I really don't care how this one turns out. Because of that, I'm following with relative disinterested in the individual runs than I am with the overall run progression.

The difference between the money model this year (GFS) and the rest is astounding. Battle of wills...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAM solution wouldn't gain a tremendous amount of latitude thanks to the kicker right on it's heels (Just N of MN). If accurate, it would be close- and I'd want to be well west of town say in the Blue Ridge... but it might end better than many think.

The NAM was pretty amped up last storm out past 72 and the verification was a less intense storm.

its impossible to say but the NAM with that H5 track could be a good thump snow on the back end.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

858 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

VALID 12Z WED JAN 26 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 29 2011

RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS

NEXT WEEK DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE ALEUTIANS.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE BUT DIFFER

IN THE DETAILS. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT OVER THE

WEST WHERE AN UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF BY THU/D5 AND

SHOW MUCH MORE SPREAD OVER THE EAST COAST IN THE VICINITY OF RAPID

CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR

IS FORECAST TO DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEEK AS RIDGING

SURGES UPSTREAM INTO EASTERN ALASKA.

FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE EAST COAST

WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF AND UP THE EASTERN

SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

THE 06Z GFS/GEFS CONTINUE THEIR RECENT STRETCH OF RUNS WITH A

FASTER/LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE

ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS

IS QUICKER THAN THE GEFS MEAN... BUT EVEN THE MEAN IS ABOUT 12 TO

18 HOURS AHEAD OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS/GEFS

MEAN IN FAVOR OF A SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS

WITH ONGOING CONTINUITY. BY WED/D4... THE 00Z UKMET POSITIONS THE

LOW QUITE NICELY BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF... WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER

WEST BUT TRENDING A BIT TO THE EAST RECENTLY... AND THE 00Z ECMWF

ENSEMBLE MEAN... WHICH HAS BEEN EITHER OFFSHORE OR JUST ALONG THE

COAST IN RECENT RUNS. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO AN INLAND RUNNER

AND TRACKS EVEN FARTHER WEST THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. COASTAL FRONT

DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE LIKELY WITH A STRONG PUSH OF RELATIVELY MILD

ATLANTIC AIR TOWARD THE COAST TO THE NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC WARM

FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM MAKING FOR

QUITE A MESS FROM I-81 EASTWARD... BUT THE FORECAST RAIN/SNOW

LINE... AND PROBABLY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AREA TOO... WILL SHIFT

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE

WORLD CLOSER TO THE COAST. SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY

SLOWLY BUT STEADILY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

858 AM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

VALID 12Z WED JAN 26 2011 - 12Z SAT JAN 29 2011

Glad they tossed the GFS. Its actually nice to be tracking a R/S line with buckets of moisture rather than a snow hole.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...