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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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Looks like its doing a Miller B?

Pretty much.

Is this bad news? What does it exactly mean?

Same as 00Z. All snow for much of the MA but of course way lighter on QPF.

It means it does not even have a low develop in the gulf. Its sticking to its guns. :arrowhead:

It is darned consistent--no doubt. Sooner or later one of these solutions is going to cave big time.

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Can I take the NAM's Gulf low with the GFS's high location? :arrowhead:

This forecast is ridiculous. I am betting against the GFS for a multitude of reasons--but if it pulls off a coup--it will be one of the more epic ones in a long time.

The GFS ensembles actually trended closer to its op--and the ECM ensembles are in decent agreement with its op although I will add the GFS 0Z mean is a little W of its op. Either way--these separate model data assimilation systems are sampling something vastly different as they are completely different as early as 36-42 hours into the forecast. Amazing.

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This forecast is ridiculous. I am betting against the GFS for a multitude of reasons--but if it pulls off a coup--it will be one of the more epic ones in a long time.

The GFS ensembles actually trended closer to its op--and the ECM ensembles are in decent agreement with its op although I will add the GFS 0Z mean is a little W of its op. Either way--these separate model data assimilation systems are sampling something vastly different as they are completely different as early as 36-42 hours into the forecast. Amazing.

I agree. My parents wanted to know today of what type of event is going to be come for the early or mid week. I let out a small laugh and literally said. I don't know.

I told them I favored a rain event for this area (Richmond... most data is rain ...) but models were not in agreement with the type of storm or evolution of the storm at all. I did not get overly technical with them. It's just baffling the differences between the GFS is compared to all other guidance on how the storm plays out. Its not as easy to say.. oh well model A has storm tracking from point A on the gulf to point B somewhere up the coast.... while model B has it go from some place down in the gulf as well to come other point along the east coast.

Sure if we throw out the GFS we can do that...

But gfs would literally be... well... a trough comes down... and eventually forms a low along the outer banks area... but it does not come from the gulf..

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Just as others have mentioned in past storms this year, the lack of sampling of the vorticity energy in the N.Pacific has given

the computer models fits in coming up with solutions. It appears many of the players will be on the shores of B.C. today.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_central_enhanced+today

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I believe I was the first to say that and was scoffed at by a few.

I'm pulling for whichever model shows snow, and that would be the GFS and no other model at this time.

It is hard to believe, however, that it will pull the coup.

Never scoffed at that and I'm more in your camp now. I don't need to gamble at this point. .7 qpf all snow in this winter is HUGE.

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Never scoffed at that and I'm more in your camp now. I don't need to gamble at this point. .7 qpf all snow in this winter is HUGE.

interesting how the 3Z SREF's were uber progressive and didn't really have a storm (except in Canada north of the Great Lakes!-where have we seen that picture before?)

9Z will be out shortly and, if also progressive, may signal a change on the NAM from over-amped to under

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