mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I never heard of so many obscure and never used numerical weather models until I joined Americanwx. Never had heard of the DGEX--obvious why there. The CRAS--what is that? a snow weenie's last hope it scored a coup of sorts last year on 1/30 when it was the only model with some decent precip run after run ultimately, we received 5-6" it now has an unmovable spot in our hearts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I never heard of so many obscure and never used numerical weather models until I joined Americanwx. Never had heard of the DGEX--obvious why there. The CRAS--what is that? The CRAS is a POS model that always amplifies the storm to biblical proportions. It is basically an automated weather porn generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I never heard of so many obscure and never used numerical weather models until I joined Americanwx. Never had heard of the DGEX--obvious why there. The CRAS--what is that? another word for CRAS is CRAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 fwiw on his FB page, DT says the GFS solution is absurd. yes i have no life. i'm sitting at home on a Friday night hanging out on Facebook. I call it being married with kids. What's your excuse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 fwiw on his FB page, DT says the GFS solution is absurd. yes i have no life. i'm sitting at home on a Friday night hanging out on Facebook. But see, the ironic thing is that you're saying this to a bunch of other people sitting at home on a Friday night reading a weather board... EDIT: Perhaps even more ironic is that DT is updating his facebook page sitting at home on a Friday night as you wrote that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 But see, the ironic thing is that you're saying this to a bunch of other people sitting at home on a Friday night reading a weather board... wrong, Randy's at a bar reading a weather board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well, the trend on the GFS is undeniable..it is creeping north, but at the same time, the GFS is an outlier with this Miller Bish look. Like Ji pointed out, on the NAM at 84, the storm is just starting to get together and on the GFS the thing is about over. The GFS is keying completely on the first vort, with very little energy coming in behind it and so it just races that east and develops it but without much digging. The other models are diving a second vort in behind it and digging the trough and that leads to the more amplified and southern solutions. Right now it really is just the GFS showing this idea so I am not too concerned yet. Of course we do not have the rest of the 0z guidance yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 No folding on the GGEM tonight. Looks like a LP forming in the GOM by 72. Makes the GFS seem even more WTFish if it's missing that entirely out only 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 a snow weenie's last hope it scored a coup of sorts last year on 1/30 when it was the only model with some decent precip run after run ultimately, we received 5-6" it now has an unmovable spot in our hearts The CRAS is a POS model that always amplifies the storm to biblical proportions. It is basically an automated weather porn generator. another word for CRAS is CRAP LOL, thanks for the explanations. The highlighted gave me a good chuckle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM will cave momentarily, I suspect. GGEM pretty much tells you to STFU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 so the 00z models are speaking now Nogaps-Bomb GGEM is going to hold NAM looks like its going to be big GFS-a clipper I think Ukmet went east from its 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 No folding on the GGEM tonight. Looks like a LP forming in the GOM by 72. Makes the GFS seem even more WTFish if it's missing that entirely out only 72 hrs. GGEM is east of it's 12z, even though it's west of the GFS Edit. GGEM east of the NAM too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Let the GGEM finish, then I will devour crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Let the GGEM finish, then I will devour crow. It's clearly nothing like the GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 so the 00z models are speaking now Nogaps-Bomb GGEM is going to hold NAM looks like its going to be big GFS-a clipper I think Ukmet went east from its 12z run We want east on the other globals. East doesn't mean Miller B like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yo said dat. but dont disrespect phineas. Just because you're my best friend doesnt mean you disrespect my local brethren. That's touching, little buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM is east of it's 12z, even though it's west of the GFS Edit. GGEM east of the NAM too as long as it goes far enough east to keep central md in all snow im happy, id like to see ukmet trend east if im not mistaken it was the most west track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 That's touching, little buddy. Firing up the scooter for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 I dont want east right now.....its trend east enough already 12 hours before a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 fixed I fully appreciate your thoughts, and you may be right, but can we please talk about the current threat and use sound analysis of the data instead of a barrage of this pattern sucks and its not going to snow because this pattern just sucks posts? Everyone knows now where you stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lol well i am multitasking...here, FB, Skype. see we dont have to go out into the brutal cold and go to a bar to socialize and meet people. and i have plenty of liquor in the house. I can relate to that! Hence, my quest for that fine bottle of single malt I mentioned earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I dont want east right now.....its trend east enough already 12 hours before a storm. Small track changes don't matter. What does matter is if the northern stream is dominant, which doesn't look to be the case on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12Z GEM had a 1037 High over the NE and 0Z has a 1033 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS ensemble precip..i assume OP GFS drug this down quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12Z GEM had a 1037 High over the NE and 0Z has a 1033 fwiw GGEM was roasting with an inland track so not sure this could be any worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM. BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Moments like this really put into perspective the mini-break down on the Eastern Board on the evening of Feb. 3, Thursday, when either the NAM or GFS had a mini hiccup and shifted the band of 2' + plus precip south from directly over DC to somewhere near Fredericksburg and everyone went crazy for a few minutes thinking their snowfall totals may be 15 inches instead of 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Did that GGEM low come up from the Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Did that GGEM low come up from the Gulf? Yes like the Nam has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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