psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 probably for now. though im not the hugest fan of the big bomb idea because i dont like heavy rain in my backyard so i guess im biased there a little. true, but considering its track record at this range this year, where would you rather be with regards to the euro, praying it is a little over amplified, or under amplified? GFS is probably under amplified also, and that is why its nice to have some room on the GFS. A blend of the two is actually a fairly good solution. Not sure what people want to see at this range. The h5 track is about as good as we could ask for and there are several divergent runs all centered around a solution that would give us at least some snow. This is a much better setup then any we have had recently if you want a big storm, and I will roll with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 until you are doing more than simply regurgitating model output you should probably not try to stifle debate. swisscaster has some slight point but not a huge one at this time. yeah there is a 'seasonal trend' etc. but on the bigger storms it has been pretty clear we were in trouble.. at most we'd run into 1/3 of any given guidance trying to give us snow for 12/26 and while the top-end was seemingly high midlvls were very tricky to pull off. that all has changed a bit for jan 11 / y-day when we started seeing many runs with some snow and such but we obviously had other issues at play that should have overridden much hope (especially yesterday) based on the surface maps. either way, some debate is good. He does have a point, but it gets ridiculous after a while. We get it, he wants a screwjob. This has a better chance then we have seen this winter to give us snow and potentially a good amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Do you think the emergence of blocking on the NAM and GFS may support all snow on a bomb? I wouldn't know if there is any validity in those schemes. Inform me. i dunno. the nao is negative again now and was forecast to be negative through the storm if also heading back neutral. i have not paid much attention to how it's changed in recent runs. at quick glance it's kinda far east for the dc area to really love it but a -nao is better than a +nao,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It may be an outlier for this event, but doesn't that signature smell like every other storm that screwed us this winter? Even look at that GFS ensemble mean that just got posted. So to say it is an outlier compared to the other models for this storm is true, but when it shows the seasonal trend, maybe it is the correct "outlier." If you're only looking at the precip shield several days out. The signature is completely different for the H5 track and in a number of other ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 if the gfs was not currently an outlier it would be more reason for concern. but we've already seen plenty of flops. i'd like to pretend we are locking in now but i dont believe that's true. there is some room to breathe on other models for sure at least at 500, but no one can feel too safe right now unless they are being willfully ignorant. I agree with this... One of the things I'll be watching in the next couple of days isn't so much the geographical positioning as much as the time dimension. It's not just a question of when the phasing happens, but also one of when the models show the precip starting in this region. In this season, time has not been our friend. December 26th is a great example of how a storm delayed (the first model forecasts showed it as early as the 23rd) can be a storm denied, as the drift to the north correlates with a drift back in time, which correlates with the phasing timing. Similarly with this storm, a handful of runs ago it was a Monday afternoon/evening start, now that seems to be shifting back to Tuesday. Also, the longer we wait, the more "stale" the cold air around here will become. I know that's not exactly a meteorologically tested concept, but given recent experience, I do think it's a factor - a stitch in time saves 9 (inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Most of the individual 18z GFS ensembles have it snowing here in less than 96 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Some of the individual 18z GFS ensembles have it snowing here in less than 96 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I do not mean to be dismissive of that comment by swisscaster, its actually valid and a good point, but just to add onto my reasoning here, right now we have 3 main op runs that wind this low up and take it inland. The Euro, UKMET, and GGEM. While there is evidence to suggest an inland track is possible here, the nao is east based, 50/50 not ideal and a little north, high sliding east... there is also evidence to argue those solutions are a little overdone right now. Looking at past events, these models have had a tendancy to get the "idea" right, but overblow things a bit in the medium range. The euro has done this several times, most notably with the Dec 26th storm when it had several runs consecutavely that got heavy snow all the way to the eastern divide. It was right about the amplification of the storm but was way overdone and going negative too early. GGEM just had a smilar crap the bed moment this week with the storm yesterday. The UKMET has been so inconsistent this year and is known to have crazy amplification issues that I am not even going to do a case by case with that. My point here is that I feel there are things we can take from each solution. I think the GFS and NAM may be onto the idea that the blocking is building in a little better and thus the cold may stick a little more. This is a seasonal trend. I think the UKMET, GGEM, and ECMWF are the right idea on a low that is a little more amplified then the 18z GFS implies, however they are just a tad overdone at this point. The H5 track of all the models are very similar and that is something to hang our hat on right now. its a risky game, but taking what looks good from each solution and blending it together gives a pretty good idea of what is likely at this point. This is further supported by the fact that doing this ends with a result matched by the ensemble mean of all 3 major op models. Its not perfect, and this is still a lot of educated guessing going into it, but its better then just taking a run of one model and getting all worked up over every detail of it and what it may mean. I've been reading all the posts and analysis on and off throughout today, and I can certainly appreciate how difficult it is to assess this event. Model guidance with a wide variety of solutions, etc. I think this description here gives a realistic and pretty good discussion in a nutshell. With such a spread in model depictions, the old "educated guess" is about as good as one can do at this point. I only hope things shake out so that we can get a really good event around here, rather than another wide-right screw job or driving rainstorm after a token couple of inches. Personally, if given the choice right now of "pick a model solution, and that's what will happen", I'd like to see today's 12Z GFS verify as shown. Pretty much everyone scores big with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FOr those screaming about the whole "its gonna miss us to the northeast same as the rest stuff" look at this. This is a smoothed mean and look at the depth of the trough digging in. This is what we have not had before. These H5 troughs have been bottoming out well north of that and the vorts have been passing through Ohio. This one is down in the TN valley. It would take a significant shift in the evolution shown by all the models to result in a similar screwjob to the rest. its possible, and I admit the way things have gone I am always on the lookout for signs it may happen, but right now its not "imminent" or anything. There is more of a risk right now we do get a NADS in the form of a cutting low versus a late developing miller b. sorry messed up the graphics...here it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 102 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean QPF Good Grief!!! Three quarters of an inch of water for my backyard!!! When did this happen? Is that all snow?!! ZOMG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 true, but considering its track record at this range this year, where would you rather be with regards to the euro, praying it is a little over amplified, or under amplified? GFS is probably under amplified also, and that is why its nice to have some room on the GFS. A blend of the two is actually a fairly good solution. Not sure what people want to see at this range. The h5 track is about as good as we could ask for and there are several divergent runs all centered around a solution that would give us at least some snow. This is a much better setup then any we have had recently if you want a big storm, and I will roll with it. i know you're all in on this for multiple reasons but it's not like im actually looking at it all that (or any) differently than you. im just realllllllllly cautious about believing much with still a few days to go. i said a while back that i'd favor the euro over the gfs even though the gfs has seemingly done well this yr. i just have to deal with the fact that there's a pretty good shot i get rain of some magnitude and just hope it's less than 2" shown on the euro even though i know that's not going to happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah exactly. The inevitable "THE MODELS SUCK!" comments are going to come out in these patterns. The models are doing fine. It is a nod to human ingenuity that these models can even suggest these threats 5-7 days in advance. Kudos to them; no kudos to the people who believe models suck if they can't nail down threats a week in advance. There are some very, very intelligent, educated and talented people who write these models who are trying to put down, in mathematical terms how the atmosphere functions. They can't see it. only feel it and to think that what they spend months, weeks, hours on to produce a extremely difficult model that analyses what goes on in the atmospheere and is as close to what really happens realistically, well that should boggle the mind!!! My brother in law is a Dr in astrophysics and he went thru 7 years beyond his doctorate degree studying and learning before he finally got a position with the european space union. He is now lead astophysicts for the union. So to say the models '""suck"" is really a misnomer. We should be glad the models are as good as they are, and congratulate the efforts of these very intelligent people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What does Wes say? Wes is the very Voice of Reason. If he says it is a possibility - Then I will devote 24/7 to tracking it. Social media will go straight down the toilet until at least Feb 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i know you're all in on this for multiple reasons but it's not like im actually looking at it all that (or any) differently than you. im just realllllllllly cautious about believing much with still a few days to go. i said a while back that i'd favor the euro over the gfs even though the gfs has seemingly done well this yr. i just have to deal with the fact that there's a pretty good shot i get rain of some magnitude and just hope it's less than 2" shown on the euro even though i know that's not going to happen! I think your approach is good and if I had to forecast for the public I would be conservative also. My comments are more directed at the negative nancy crowd that has gathered in here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FOr those screaming about the whole "its gonna miss us to the northeast same as the rest stuff" look at this. This is a smoothed mean and look at the depth of the trough digging in. This is what we have not had before. These H5 troughs have been bottoming out well north of that and the vorts have been passing through Ohio. This one is down in the TN valley. It would take a significant shift in the evolution shown by all the models to result in a similar screwjob to the rest. its possible, and I admit the way things have gone I am always on the lookout for signs it may happen, but right now its not "imminent" or anything. There is more of a risk right now we do get a NADS in the form of a cutting low versus a late developing miller b. Destructively agree. I know I'm a damn weenie but I have paid pretty close attention to a lot of things since I joined Eastern in 2006. The general consensus does not in any way shape or form indicate that the H5 is heading for the eventual shift N into the OH and have history repeat itself. Until ANY of the models start to shift towards that screwjob solution there should be no posts about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think your approach is good and if I had to forecast for the public I would be conservative also. My comments are more directed at the negative nancy crowd that has gathered in here today. we did see this a few runs for 1/11! not very many tho.... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2011/post-1615-0-38077600-1294288129.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 There are some very, very intelligent, educated and talented people who write these models who are trying to put down, in mathematical terms how the atmosphere functions. They can't see it. only feel it and to think that what they spend months, weeks, hours on to produce a extremely difficult model that analyses what goes on in the atmospheere and is as close to what really happens realistically, well that should boggle the mind!!! My brother in law is a Dr in astrophysics and he went thru 7 years beyond his doctorate degree studying and learning before he finally got a position with the european space union. He is now lead astophysicts for the union. So to say the models '""suck"" is really a misnomer. We should be glad the models are as good as they are, and congratulate the efforts of these very intelligent people. Amen!!! It's not like you've got people sitting there at their computers saying nefariously, "now, how can I work things so that DC gets screwed on every snow event!" or something. Yeah, it's frustrating in some situations to see wild swings or a wide variety of solutions and not know what the heck to do...but it's amazing the progress made in just the past 5-10 years. Heck, I remember in the late '80s into the early '90s when the NGM was "it", with some LFM output for the medium range once a day! The NGM came out twice daily, was a short range model, and I remember sitting there during big events waiting for the printouts to finish!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am a little shocked by the agreement in the GEFS members. Seems about 2/3 of them want to get pretty SECSy around the DC area and 1/3 are downright HECSy. 1 member is a Euro clone, and 2 are OTS. All the rest are significant snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Destructively agree. I know I'm a damn weenie but I have paid pretty close attention to a lot of things since I joined Eastern in 2006. The general consensus does not in any way shape or form indicate that the H5 is heading for the eventual shift N into the OH and have history repeat itself. Until ANY of the models start to shift towards that screwjob solution there should be no posts about it. part of the problem tho is you CAN get a good h5 track without a good snowstorm especially in the cities. some of you see the negative nancys but there is also a pretty strong contingent of folks who freak out when anyone talks about anything other than the snowiest scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am a little shocked by the agreement in the GEFS members. Seems about 2/3 of them want to get pretty SECSy around the DC area and 1/3 are downright HECSy. 1 member is a Euro clone, and 2 are OTS. All the rest are significant snows. Well, we all would love some good SECS, and even more, great HECS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am a little shocked by the agreement in the GEFS members. Seems about 2/3 of them want to get pretty SECSy around the DC area and 1/3 are downright HECSy. 1 member is a Euro clone, and 2 are OTS. All the rest are significant snows. Yup. Most of them give us sig snows, aka 6"+. About 3 do not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 part of the problem tho is you CAN get a good h5 track without a good snowstorm especially in the cities. some of you see the negative nancys but there is also a pretty strong contingent of folks who freak out when anyone talks about anything other than the snowiest scenario. My point is more geared toward the fact that we are very likely going to get a good shot of QPF in general this time. I'm not sold that we are going to get a good snow. I"m just confident that we are going to get a good shot of precip and that has not been the case for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am a little shocked by the agreement in the GEFS members. Seems about 2/3 of them want to get pretty SECSy around the DC area and 1/3 are downright HECSy. 1 member is a Euro clone, and 2 are OTS. All the rest are significant snows. One thing worth mentioning is even ensemble means can have issues here. When a wave is in rapid development--even perturbed ensembles with the differing physics packages/parametrizations can't account for the potential "variance/variability" that may exist--not to mention the tiny sampling of data (overall) of the atmosphere. The Euro and its ensemble about 5 days before this last storm that passed through the OV and developed a mild coastal low is a great example. It showed a very low amplitude trough tracking E and producing a total whiff--and the ensemble mean was in good agreement regarding that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 we did see this a few runs for 1/11! not very many tho.... http://www.americanw...-1294288129.gif EXCELLENT point However, counterpoint 1: it wasnt many runs, 2 that trough was never really digging and just had a bad look to it IMO, 3 we are a little inside that range and with much better model support this time. It could mean nothing and if things shift towards a H5 low bottoming out in Ohio then we know the seasonal trend has won and we should just pack it in. Right now I am leaning against that end result. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 EXCELLENT point However, counterpoint 1: it wasnt many runs, 2 that trough was never really digging and just had a bad look to it IMO, 3 we are a little inside that range and with much better model support this time. It could mean nothing and if things shift towards a H5 low bottoming out in Ohio then we know the seasonal trend has won and we should just pack it in. Right now I am leaning against that end result. We shall see. you cant counterpoint a point i already made. clearly it's a different situation. i certainly would not expect the vort to end up way to our north or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 One thing worth mentioning is even ensemble means can have issues here. When a wave is in rapid development--even perturbed ensembles with the differing physics packages/parametrizations can't account for the potential "variance/variability" that may exist--not to mention the tiny sampling of data (overall) of the atmosphere. The Euro and its ensemble about 5 days before this last storm that passed through the OV and developed a mild coastal low is a great example. It showed a huge whiff and a very low amplitude trough tracking E and producing a total whiff--and the ensemble mean was in good agreement regarding that solution. I agree 100 percent. I kinda hope people are not assuming I am convinced we are getting a HECS or anything. I still feel very much the same as when I first pointed this threat out. My original statement was that this was a better threat then the one still 3 days away that we were tracking at the time. That there was evidence we would finally get a trough to dig south far enough to have a favorable H5 track for this area. It would give us a shot at a significant snow where the last few did not. I still feel that way, we have a shot. I am not convinced of any solution as of right now, but I am convinced that this is a legitimate threat and those throwing it out simply based on "seasonal trend" are playing a dangerous game. Trends and patterns change and its only after they do that its easy to point out when it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 you cant counterpoint a point i already made. clearly it's a different situation. i certainly would not expect the vort to end up way to our north or anything. I love how we have these little spats over insignificant details when in reality we pretty much see eye to eye on this. I am a debate coach, what's your excuse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I love how we have these little spats over insignificant details when in reality we pretty much see eye to eye on this. I am a debate coach, what's your excuse? im just a jerk, lol. i like to debate.. sometimes i'll take the opposite side just to get it going. i work at a think tank... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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