yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 P010 looks like DC gets flooded And P003 DC gets snowpocalypse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 There is no freaking way that 20" of snow is an average year for anybody near Richmond. DCA's average snowfall is less than that and BWI's is only 20.8". You are correct - I am WSW of RIC and my average is probably somewhere in the 12-14" range. I currently stand at 12.4" on the season, although the airport itself is below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 6 hour panel maps from the ggem wild run here PLEASE DON'T QUOTE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 UKIE says get out your boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html GGEM woulld suggest about 8-10 hrs of snow across the area before we switch over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 UKMET and the GGEM being so wrapped up/inland is probably the cliched red flag here that the GFS might be too far east. In 20 minutes, we'll know if the supposedly king of models goes with the GFS or the GGEM/Ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 UKMET and the GGEM being so wrapped up/inland is probably the cliched red flag here that the GFS might be too far east. In 20 minutes, we'll know if the supposedly king of models goes with the GFS or the GGEM/Ukmet 'l FWIW.. NOGAPS went east and is off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html GGEM woulld suggest about 8-10 hrs of snow across the area before we switch over I would think it would switch back to snow after the low passes north with probably several more hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I would think it would switch back to snow after the low passes north with probably several more hours of snow. I would agree.. but it only goes out to 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Even a "good" run 5 days out resembles the seasonal track/pattern. Nudge 80-100 miles north over 5 days of runs and you have a repeat performance. Concur. Too many people focus on actual QPF spat out by the models for a particular location instead of looking at the "QPF signature." And the 12Z GFS has a Miller B signature similar to the 3 or 4 other storms this year that gave us nothing. Other storms had the models getting us in on the action this far out or even closer in (12/26/10 even the day before!), but we all know what happened in reality. Could be another case where the models do a good job sniffing out the overall scenario, just not the actual final placement of the lows and redevelopment. of the coastal. There is a tendency for models on almost all Miller Bs to show the coastal redevelopment too far southwest--the closer you get to the event, the more NE the redevelopment shows up . Our only shot is to have the coastal low development modeled so far south that even when we get the 100-mile NE "jog," we get in on SOME action. This one could be it, but I am not betting on it. If we actually started to see a south or southwest trend after 12Z, then maybe we could think our luck would change. Any N or NE trend from here probably means same old screwjob and "Next!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 UKMET and the GGEM being so wrapped up/inland is probably the cliched red flag here that the GFS might be too far east. In 20 minutes, we'll know if the supposedly king of models goes with the GFS or the GGEM/Ukmet Given its track record this winter, should we still consider it the king of all models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 UKMET and the GGEM being so wrapped up/inland is probably the cliched red flag here that the GFS might be too far east. In 20 minutes, we'll know if the supposedly king of models goes with the GFS or the GGEM/Ukmet Yeah, the king Ludwig of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z euro gives coastal nc a couple inches this run snow all the way to nags head maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 nads storm still a graze to coastal nc per euro. maybe a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Everybody in this thread should just cancel their gym memberships....you get enough exercise jumping to conlcusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 72 S/W in the south is further west northern s/w is further north heights are lower in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 1035 H in Quebec/extreme N NY at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 wayyyyy less digging from the northern branch at 78 southern wave is flat for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 How many times do you think Psu will tell we're gonna mix or "have trouble" as if we didn't know this and then say his area looks ok. I do not know what the obsession is with "staying all snow" some have. If I get 12" of snow but mix with sleet for a while I am not going to be that upset! When I pointed out that DC would probably have mixing issues it was because I think they might, but I am on record saying I think this has the potential to be the first significant snowfall for the area. If DC gets 6" then some mix/rain and a back end 1-2" that would be by far our best snow event this winter. Without a 50/50 or block this is going to be hard to maintain all rain on the coastal plain. That is a fact, sorry that I live 35 miles northwest of 95 and at 1000 feet, but those facts do give my location an advantage in this situation. I do also feel that DC being further west then Philly and NYC actually has an advantage this time around with such an event. JB actually said as much today, but that should make me reconsider. If it makes you feel any better I have been and will continue to focus on the metro areas moreso then where I live because not many on here live up here and even though I am very close distance, the climo is drastically different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 84 hr closed 500 low northern wisc 0z had it in south west iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 102 1012 low fla pan 1032 hi se of cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 102 1012 low fla pan 1032 hi se of cape cod whats the tilt on h5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 102 1012 low fla pan 1032 hi se of cape cod That's not going to end well for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 big ole rain storm coming 1008 low ala.ga. border 0c to ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That's not going to end well for me. Its not going to end well for many of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Did the vort travel about due south for 24hrs to go from northern Wisconsin to spawn a low in the FL panhandle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 114 1004 low augusta ga 0c to dc ric 0.75 dc 0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Sounds different than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 114 1004 low augusta ga 0c to dc ric 0.75 dc 0.25 Yeah, this one's going to be a rainer. Matches pretty well with the GGEM/UK so far. Still time to get things right tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hr 120 992 rdu +8 ric dc ~+2 extreme nw va 0c 1" to dc ric ~1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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