Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 gfs ens mean has the 500 low entering nd headed to ark then al/ga and off to our se. still more in line with the older 0/6z op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 From this point it's OTS. that's y-day i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Midlo...do you have corresponding 500mb charts for the GFS ensembles? Surface ones look very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 holy +pna -nao if that even comes close to verifying, the place to be for heavy snows will be NE and the Outer Banks everything in between will be cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That looks great, tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Midlo...do you have corresponding 500mb charts for the GFS ensembles? Surface ones look very nice. i just said the track above but they are here http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ggem takes it to 972 over VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I hate to be a debbie downer, but I have a feeling this might be another situation where it phases too late for the mid atlantic. Please stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i just said the track above but they are here http://raleighwx.ame...fsensemble.html Thanks...saw that 1min too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 120 hr GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If I am looking at the right GGEM maps it has a 1004 low in SC at 120 and at 144 it has a 972 low over Vermont. Too inland for an all snow scenario but plenty of time to adjust that track E. EDIT: Just saw the GFS Ensembles, yes please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, ensembles look good. But don't they always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM is still wound up, but a bit east of where it was last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Probably snow-rain-snow on the GGEM. Can't be sure without knowing temps and thicknesses, but based on the track, it would be hard to keep it all snow in DC and Baltimore with a slightly inland track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Approx. 30 hour event in DC, if I added correctly. Miller A or B or hybrid, it's a long event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Probably snow-rain-snow on the GGEM. Can't be sure without knowing temps and thicknesses, but based on the track, it would be hard to keep it all snow in DC and Baltimore with a slightly inland track. It definitely would be a snow to rain deal if the GGEM were right. The position of the block worries me some though the GFS managed to hold enough confluence across new england to hold the high in place until the low got into the optimal position. It will be interesting to see what the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I hate to be a debbie downer, but I have a feeling this might be another situation where it phases too late for the mid atlantic. The authority on the matter has spoken! Prep the Lexapro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So this event would start Tuesday night and last through Thursday if it verified, is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So this event would start Tuesday night and last through Thursday if it verified, is that right? even our big events struggle to go much past 24-30 hrs so i doubt this ends up a 48 hr event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 even our big events struggle to go much past 24-30 hrs so i doubt this ends up a 48 hr event. There's a first time for everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, I think it can be ready for next week . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 There's a first time for everything i would think models will speed up if they hold similar solutions. without a big block there is not much reason the low should crawl for any great period though it stacking/getting captured etc could slow it for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i would think models will speed up if they hold similar solutions. without a big block there is not much reason the low should crawl for any great period though it stacking/getting captured etc could slow it for a time. Agreed. We aren't getting a 48 hour snowstorm. Especially in a year where we keep getting fringed or screwed in various ways. I'm encouraged though at the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Talk about all over the place... 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 114 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GO NADS AGAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 we've gotten really lenient with this posting of map and nothing else. at the very least it might be nice to just have links to we dont have to scroll for a mile. regardless, probably a good sign the mean is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That's actually WAY more consistency among the ensemble members than yesterdays 12z run. BTW...Typhoon Tip has a nice thread in the NE subforum on why the various teleconnections are very positive for a big storm (of whatever ptype) next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 we've gotten really lenient with this posting of map and nothing else. at the very least it might be nice to just have links to we dont have to scroll for a mile. regardless, probably a good sign the mean is useless. P010 looks like DC gets flooded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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