Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ya but how did this go from a Miller A to a Miller B so fast? Thats the problem. its 4 days out and its already showing a Miller B. the 12z euro was very heavy on the northern stream. i think the idea was there already. any run showing a giant closed 500 low in the southern stream that bombs out to our southwest has to be taken with some salt given what's happened this yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i guess i'll take my 52 and sunny in seattle...rather than 32 and heartbreak here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Total storm looks to be around .75-.85 DCA, unless I am looking at the wrong map... A bit more.. closer to 1" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm not so sure it ever was a classic Miller A look at last night's 0Z run it shows in these 2 panels that its a northern stream vort that was proged to come way south this run, it just isn't coming as far south http://www.nco.ncep....0072090_l.shtml http://www.nco.ncep....0096114_l.shtml it wasnt really imo. nothing this yr is. they are all jumpers even if there is a reflection in the gom initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Here comes the GGEM... I will say it shows something good.. mark my words... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Agree with the folks against whining. There is some obvious defensive pessimism occurring. The fact is no matter what is depicted right now, the chances for snow are never going to be good until these outputs are depicted less than 48 hours out. Just be happy with what it shows now. And I don't care if it's blasphemy - 1996 La Nina Miller B that bombed to our south. IT HAPPENS, just not that likely. Accept the probabilities and just wait to see what unfolds. Even if it does skirt us north, we could still pick up our 6 while NYC and Boston get walloped again. I got no problem with that the way this winter has gone. Better than rain right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i guess i'll take my 52 and sunny in seattle...rather than 32 and heartbreak here Every winter since I got here in '04 I've had this nagging worry that we would get nailed during one of the two weeks that I was out of town (holidays, AMS). If not for last year, I'd be close to panicking right now. Now, however, I can just sit back in serene calm and just watch everything unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 A bit more.. closer to 1" QPF You are correct, my bad. I looked at total QPF after 108 assuming it was just about over. Almost does a nice slow drift up the coast after that to 126. Not that this will verify, but does anyone see RIC in the snowhole AGAIN? If I wasn't from there it would be funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Every winter since I got here in '04 I've had this nagging worry that we would get nailed during one of the two weeks that I was out of town (holidays, AMS). If not for last year, I'd be close to panicking right now. Now, however, I can just sit back in serene calm and just watch everything unfold fall apart. fixed for clarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 At the least, you all are helping me pass the time in the airport while I work my way to toronto this weekend. No lack of cold up there...but oh so dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So for those who are worried about this turning to a Miller B....an explanation from another forum: It is technically a Miller A/B hybrid... It has some characteristics of a Miller B but still the moisture and track of a miller A. There is a small transfer of energy that occurs as the ULL is already closed aloft as the storm gets going off the coast so the 500mb closed low will seek the other storm and try to close it off as quick as possible leading to a quickly developing storm and locking off (not moving) Now as far as QPF I would take it down a notch but overall i like the run as it seems to make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 You are correct, my bad. I looked at total QPF after 108 assuming it was just about over. Almost does a nice slow drift up the coast after that to 126. Not that this will verify, but does anyone see RIC in the snowhole AGAIN? If I wasn't from there it would be funny. isnt ric already near avg for the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 holy +pna -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I hate to be a debbie downer, but I have a feeling this might be another situation where it phases too late for the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The ensembles at this point have a such a wide spread of solutions, that you can't just jump on one model and ride off the bridge. Everything is still on the table folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So for those who are worried about this turning to a Miller B....an explanation from another forum: It is technically a Miller A/B hybrid... It has some characteristics of a Miller B but still the moisture and track of a miller A. There is a small transfer of energy that occurs as the ULL is already closed aloft as the storm gets going off the coast so the 500mb closed low will seek the other storm and try to close it off as quick as possible leading to a quickly developing storm and locking off (not moving) Now as far as QPF I would take it down a notch but overall i like the run as it seems to make sense. all the bigger storms this yr except perhaps jan 11 were hybrids. the debate is mostly academic except that the northern stream is dominant and probably remains that way for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I hate to be a debbie downer, but I have a feeling this might be another situation where it phases too late for the mid atlantic. thanks for adding the 40th post on this!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So for those who are worried about this turning to a Miller B....an explanation from another forum: It is technically a Miller A/B hybrid... It has some characteristics of a Miller B but still the moisture and track of a miller A. There is a small transfer of energy that occurs as the ULL is already closed aloft as the storm gets going off the coast so the 500mb closed low will seek the other storm and try to close it off as quick as possible leading to a quickly developing storm and locking off (not moving) Now as far as QPF I would take it down a notch but overall i like the run as it seems to make sense. Who posted that? Also...maybe we can make a seperate thread for all the weenies who want to cry/b**ch/moan about being bullseyed in a HECS/MECS 4 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 isnt ric already near avg for the season? Meh, the airport may be because it was east of town and it got more on the 12/25-26 storm than most of the Metro. Most of RIC hasn't seen more than 8-10, where as 20 is more typical (even though the aiports average is 13). DC has definitely been in the snowhole just as much this winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS is just wickedly cold in the long range, Day 7+. Lots of single digit lows and highs in the teens, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Meh, the airport may be because it was east of town and it got more on the 12/25-26 storm than most of the Metro. Most of RIC hasn't seen more than 8-10, where as 20 is more typical (even though the aiports average is 13). DC has definitely been in the snowhole just as much this winter though. There is no freaking way that 20" of snow is an average year for anybody near Richmond. DCA's average snowfall is less than that and BWI's is only 20.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Meh, the airport may be because it was east of town and it got more on the 12/25-26 storm than most of the Metro. Most of RIC hasn't seen more than 8-10, where as 20 is more typical (even though the aiports average is 13). DC has definitely been in the snowhole just as much this winter though. Try more so. We haven't even smelled 8-10, not even near Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 holy +pna -nao Seems to jive with the Euro showing the same into Feb.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I hate to be a debbie downer, but I have a feeling this might be another situation where it phases too late for the mid atlantic. Explain, please. Using meteorologically-sound evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS shifts north with the juice and GGEM suppresses......... The war of the models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 much better mildew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Try more so. We haven't even smelled 8-10, not even near Baltimore According to my head count, over the last month the NWS has forecasted 13-23" for my area. I've gotten 3" if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ggem is looking like snow to rain most of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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