CAPE Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I guess, but you stated that this was a 100% rainstorm for i-95 on the models and that's simply not true. well i said a huge rainstorm actually, not 100% rain. and it would be a lot of rain and wind verbatim for the big cities points eastward. anyway enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 parting shot of the 12z NAM at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think we're now looking at an extreme event either way. Liquid or frozen or combo thereof. Totally different animal here and I think it may be good, even if we do change mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 well i said a huge rainstorm actually, not 100% rain. and it would be a lot of rain and wind verbatim for the big cities points eastward. anyway enough said. http://images.cheezburger.com/completestore/2009/9/7/128968069463932973.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think we're now looking at an extreme event either way. Liquid or frozen or combo thereof. Totally different animal here and I think it may be good, even if we do change mix. Give me the combo. 4-5 inches of snow to some rain to 6 inches of snow on the backend (an example) and I will be more then happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 78-84h NAM @12Z looks very VERY different than 06Z. Energy burrowing way further into the SW...not sure how this impacts the evolution going forward, but I am a little worried that, verbatim, this might screw up the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I asked this in an earlier thread but don't remember if it was answered. Weather53 used to have a rule of thumb with marginal temp events by looking at the strength and locatation of a high to the northeast. Wasn't it a 1030H in Quebec w/ north winds at the surface here just prior to precip onset? I just want focus on thermal profile and feature placement as we move closer. Eventually I'll be able to make some sort of call outside of model hugging. Bob, I believe you are correct in Weather53's rule of thumb. He look for the BP to be like at a certain point as well. I don't recall exact pressure. I will try and see if I can get this info from him and share out in the thread later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 78-84h NAM @12Z looks very VERY different than 06Z. Energy burrowing way further into the SW...not sure how this impacts the evolution going forward, but I am a little worried that, verbatim, this might screw up the phase. NAM always has problem this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 oh god nam extrapolation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 78-84h NAM @12Z looks very VERY different than 06Z. Energy burrowing way further into the SW...not sure how this impacts the evolution going forward, but I am a little worried that, verbatim, this might screw up the phase. The 6z run extrapolated wasn't a big storm (DGEX). It was snow, but nothing huge. If I could play let's make a deal with this storm, and curtain number 1 was a 4 inch snow, 100% certain, and curtain number 2 was a 20 inch snow, or a lakes cutter heavy rain event, each 50%, I'd take curtain number 1 without even thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 His post was pretty clear. He just meant we can't nail down precip types at 120 hours out. Not hard to grasp. Does that mean we aren't going to have school!!!!!1!11!!!!??!?!///1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Bob, I believe you are correct in Weather53's rule of thumb. He look for the BP to be like at a certain point as well. I don't recall exact pressure. I will try and see if I can get this info from him and share out in the thread later today. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 oh god nam extrapolation I was just posting it so that when we see the EURO and GFS/GGEM later we can compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 lol lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 78-84h NAM @12Z looks very VERY different than 06Z. Energy burrowing way further into the SW...not sure how this impacts the evolution going forward, but I am a little worried that, verbatim, this might screw up the phase. Oy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Give me the combo. 4-5 inches of snow to some rain to 6 inches of snow on the backend (an example) and I will be more then happy I'll take it a step farther- rain would be OK with me under the present drought conditions. I started another thread about the drought- probably should be deleted- but if we can get some moisture falling from the sky it might bode well fro the rest of the winter in terms of snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 6z run extrapolated wasn't a big storm (DGEX). It was snow, but nothing huge. If I could play let's make a deal with this storm, and curtain number 1 was a 4 inch snow, 100% certain, and curtain number 2 was a 20 inch snow, or a lakes cutter heavy rain event, each 50%, I'd take curtain number 1 without even thinking about it. The DGEX isn't really an extension of the NAM because of the substantially smaller grid (i.e. it gets very a very heavy influence from GFS boundary conditions). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh for god's sake...we are just bantering about models. I know as well as anyone that the 84h NAM is just something to have fun with and should be taken with the world's largest grain of salt. Which is why I said "verbatim" instead of "AHMAHGAWD!". No one is taking it seriously, just pointing it out for the sake of discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 His post was pretty clear. He just meant we can't nail down precip types at 120 hours out. Not hard to grasp. I didnt mean it as nailing down precip types this far out. I wont argue my point as I dont want to upset wes or anybody else at this point. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Bob, I believe you are correct in Weather53's rule of thumb. He look for the BP to be like at a certain point as well. I don't recall exact pressure. I will try and see if I can get this info from him and share out in the thread later today. Back on Eastern he nailed a few events that we're marginal on p-type. It won't matter nearly as much with the upcoming event if it's as strong as modeled. The only thing we can hope for is the changeover to take longer than expected if the track is correct. OT- Clutch is opening for Motorhead in NYC on 2/28. Got my tix. Anthrax, ham radio, and liquor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 im psyched about my rain.im hoping for a flash flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 going to be alot of people hit with a 5 post per day limit today, i can just feel it HINT: if you posts are disappearing you are in the cross hairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 going to be alot of people hit with a 5 post per day limit today, i can just feel it HINT: if you posts are disappearing you are in the cross hairs count me in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 im psyched about my rain.im hoping for a flash flood. post pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 im psyched about my rain.im hoping for a flash flood. Ian, how much snow did you get last night??? I never read your observation.I had 3 hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 At least we are tracking an actual "storm". We haven't had anything that qualifies as an acutal "storm" so far. Just a bunch of Miller whiffs and may B's. Miller A's are a heck of a lot better to watch even if we get flash flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --ANOTHER GNRLY SUNNY DAY IS XPCTD ON SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS WL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 30 E OF I-95...IN THE 20S ELSEWHERE. THIS HAS BEEN A WINTER WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN XTRMLY CHAOTIC...AND THE FCST HAS HAD A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE WORKWEEK AHEAD LOOKS TO KEEP THAT TREND ALIVE. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/POSN BTWN THE XTND MDLS ADD TO THAT UNCERTAINTY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRES MOVG OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND TUE AND A DAMMING PRES WEDGE DVLPG E OF THE APLCHNS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO XTNSV CLD CVR TUE/WED. W/ DAMMING SOMETIMES LGT DZ/FZDZ DVLPS...OTHER TIMES NOT. ATTM WE ARE FCSTG CHC SN FOR TUE. FOR NOW WE`LL LV THE P-TYPE AS THIS...BUT AS THE DATE DRAWS CLOSER...AND IF THE DAMMING WEDGE STILL LOOKS TO DVLP...THIS MAY NEED TO BE CHGD. BY WED MRNG ECMWF SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVR VA. GFS IS SLOWER W/ THE DVLPMNT...AND MOVES THE LOW TO A POSN E OF ORF WED NGT. GNRLY SPEAKING I`D SAY THE LATTER IS A BETTER POSITION...BUT IT IS ALSO 130 HRS AWAY FM POTENTIALLY OCCURING...AND I DON`T WANT TO MOVE TOO QUICKLY IN A MORE PESSIMISTIC DIRECTION. WE`VE GOT SVRL DAYS TO WATCH HOW THIS DVLPS.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 post pics i know ppl are excited but history says you dont want a giant low right on your doorstep in this range. with minimal blocking and the positioning of it, it's going to want to go inland if the solution holds. not that it will but there is a reason people say they dont want to be in the bullseye 4/5 days out as you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i know ppl are excited but history says you dont want a giant low right on your doorstep in this range. with minimal blocking and the positioning of it, it's going to want to go inland if the solution holds. not that it will but there is a reason people say they dont want to be in the bullseye 4/5 days out as you know. As I've said before I'll take my chances with temps this year given moisture has been so hard to come by.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ian, how much snow did you get last night??? I never read your observation.I had 3 hours of snow. enough to notice in some spots but less than a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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