Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not that it matters for your intent for the post, but the curiosity is that there's never been a late feb hecs. There are two periods in the peak snow months (Jan and Feb) that have been sparse in big storms for us: early Jan and late Feb. (1/96 was the clear exception) Why do you all think that is? It's not like the periods before (December) and after (March) those two periods haven't seen big storms. The 10"+ storms in December and March actually end up spread more throughout the months. But there's something about late January through mid February that clusters most of our biggest. i chose late feb because we need to fill that hole, and im thinking we may go back into big blocking before and that might be near the tail. on why late jan/early feb im not sure other than maybe lag from the coldest period of the yr? i've been neglecting my spreadsheets lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 congrats Mallow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Psu...checkout ggem on ewall from 144-160 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Psu...checkout ggem on ewall from 144-160 better yet, check this out...talk about a nice signal on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Psu...checkout ggem on ewall from 144-160 it looks great at 144 but my ewall is not updated past 144 yet. GGEM at 12z had a nice storm but cut it up the coastal plain, it was a nice thump snow then dry slot/rain. I do think this might have rain/snow line issues from 95 south and east, but even if it does I think it would be a nice snow before a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 UKMET boards the train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 sounds like the euro is still at the party too "hr 162 has lgt to mod snow from phl to to stroudsburg then west along i80...mod snow in dc and balt, though the 850 line is just south of dc " per Tombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 at hr 144 the euro has a sub 1036 high in upstate ny...sub 1012 low in the gulf and one in minnesota hr 156 has hvy snow breaking out in central va down to the norfolk to roa line hr 162 has lgt to mod snow from phl to to stroudsburg then west along i80...mod snow in dc and balt, though the 850 line is just south of dc hr 168 looks like the ggem...hvy snow from about i78 north and west...low is right over the tidewater sub 1008 Euro PSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Psu psu psu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 06Z GFS doesn't buy into the PSUHoffman storm. Strong high to the north suppresses a weak low OTS. Also looks like it leaves most of the energy back west. Can't put my finger on it but the run seems a little weird to me in how it progresses though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 After looking at the full 06Z GFS run I have problems buying into its progression. I am really curious to see the GEFS. Wouldn't be surprised to see a completely different look for the PSU storm and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 meh, this event will slowly turn into all the rest this year when its cold enough for snow, it fizzles when its got decent qpf it will turn to or become mainly rain the winter of 10/11 remains memorable for the opposite reasons to last year repetitive patterns can be a real biatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 06Z GFS doesn't buy into the PSUHoffman storm. Strong high to the north suppresses a weak low OTS. Also looks like it leaves most of the energy back west. Can't put my finger on it but the run seems a little weird to me in how it progresses though. The GFS is clueless, it does not have the storm the GEM and Euro have because its having issues with one of its usual biases, its driving the arctic high too far southeast, notice the GEM/Euro move it more due east, straddling the Canadian border...that is more typical of what occurs in the 500mb setup we will have...the GFS will gradually start shunting the high more eastward and hence the system will be able to come up the Coast...the faster the system ejects from the Plains the better since its a race against time before the high gets too far east...this goes for the entire East Coast up into southern New England, everyone starts as snow on the event, its just a question who will stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 For what it's worth the 06Z DGEX shows the strong high much further to the west as compared to the 06 GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The GFS is clueless, it does not have the storm the GEM and Euro have because its having issues with one of its usual biases, its driving the arctic high too far southeast, notice the GEM/Euro move it more due east, straddling the Canadian border...that is more typical of what occurs in the 500mb setup we will have...the GFS will gradually start shunting the high more eastward and hence the system will be able to come up the Coast...the faster the system ejects from the Plains the better since its a race against time before the high gets too far east...this goes for the entire East Coast up into southern New England, everyone starts as snow on the event, its just a question who will stay snow. Thanks. Looking at the run was bugging me that I couldn't figure out why it looked wrong. Not enough coffee I guess. Do have a question though. Thought the upgrades to the GFS last summer were supposed to address that issue as well as the SE bias on coastal storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 THE OP GFS Is a complete outlier to every other model out there including itsself. Here is the ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Seasonal pattern says this one will be warm/wet. Good luck anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Seasonal pattern says this one will be warm/wet. Good luck anyway. When have we had a warm and wet storm??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 When have we had a warm and wet storm??? think last 24 hours.....think.....think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 think last 24 hours.....think.....think You mean the storm that gave me snow and sleet with temps in the mid 20s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You mean the storm that gave me snow and sleet with temps in the mid 20s? oh, so now you are satisfied with sleet? and how much snow and sleet vs. how much zr what's left on your front lawn? whether its warm on the surface or warm aloft, it fooks up snowfall meh, its not worth expending any more energy on this winter....d@mn addiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah, having a hard time calling that one "warm". We really have not had a classic warms-to-40 and rains event. Just cold and dry really. Climo for la nina except that everyone else has cashed in, so, really, just a good old fashioned hosing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 check out the 6z gfs individual members. They almost all show a storm except for the OP GFS. Expect some changes today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Time to see if the GFS op will give any loving to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i give this storm a 2.5% chance of being good at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i give this storm a 2.5% chance of being good at this time Sweet! That's higher odds than usual for us this winter! (GFS isn't out far enough yet, right?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i give this storm a 2.5% chance of being good at this time In this winter 2.5% is like 50% in a normal winter so i am pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I don't have high hopes for this one until the GFS gets on board with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Sweet! That's higher odds than usual for us this winter! (GFS isn't out far enough yet, right?) no, there goes the nads storm out to sea http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_090m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I don't have high hopes for this one until the GFS gets on board with the Euro. It will by Saturday book it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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