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Jan 14-16 NYS snow threat


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I know there have already been a few post about it in other threads but I figured I'd start a thread for this system on its own.

NWS BUF AFD

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PUSHING

ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY. LATEST

MODELS CONTINUING TO BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE

REFLECTION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS LIMITED...THEREFORE WOULD

EXPECT ANY GENERAL SYNOPTIC SNOWS TO BE LIGHT. LAKE INSTABILITY

ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE ERIE DOES LOOK TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS

WINDS TURN MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. SHOULD SEE SOME MINOR

ACCUMULATING SNOWS FROM BUFFALO SOUTHWARD.

THE MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS

THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING A MODEST

AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL OMEGA WHICH WILL TAP MIXING RATIOS OF 2-3 G/KG

FOR ABOUT 9 HOURS OR SO...YIELDING GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3

TO 5 INCHES. SNOW TO WATER RATIOS IN THE MID TEENS COULD BOOST

THESE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE LAKES WHERE

SOME ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIKELY. HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE

NEEDED TO COVER THIS TIME FRAME.

Looks like the flow on Saturday will average about 240 so the lake enhancement would probally be from BUF north on Saturday, I'm thinking warning criteria may be possible with the synoptic/enhancement depending on how much ice cover there is by Saturday... Projections for the open lake right now from the NWS are below...If this is true that is about 80 percent of open water on the lake which I feel could let areas see warning criteria.

post-1351-0-97658400-1294932750.gif

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NWS IN ALB

ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE ALLOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH

THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS

ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY NORTH IN NEW YORK AS WELL AS

SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE QPF

AMOUNTS ONLY RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH SOUTHEAST TO

PERHAPS A QUARTER OF AN INCH NORTHWEST...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS

AROUND 20:1 COULD PRODUCE 2 TO PERHAPS 6 INCHES OF SNOW OVER AN 18

HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE FA

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http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0708/j/stormsumj.html

Just to prove Lake Erie can throw out 1' + totals even with 80 percent ice coverage, this event only looks to be 20% covered , although it looks more like the snow will be lake enhanced rather then true lake effect.

LEK what are your thoughts... I'd love to hear them :)

Justin (kulaginman) you too , if your out there still, lol...

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0c line?:unsure:

well south...

im talking about the clipper here over the weekend, not the threat next week.....i thought this thread was for the clipper

nice hit of WAA snows ahead of the low around lake ontario......clipper tracks right across the ottawa valley

EDIT i think its too early to discuss amounts for next week , if any

models will be flip flopping all over the place

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well south...

im talking about the clipper here over the weekend, not the threat next week.....i thought this thread was for the clipper

nice hit of WAA snows ahead of the low around lake ontario......clipper tracks right across the ottawa valley

EDIT i think its too early to discuss amounts for next week , if any

models will be flip flopping all over the place

It is for the clipper, Ayuuds being silly :arrowhead:

What site do you use to look at the Euro?

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Ill take my 3-5 with the lake enhancement. Snow depth has settled to 9.5 Inches here.

ill check the 18z bufkit data brb :)

^ Best shot for the LES looks to be mid-morning tru the afternoon,850mb temps arent that cold either -10c or so with some shear problems :thumbsdown:

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Oh..........Andy from Forestport!!!

..LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO KICK IN SATURDAY NIGHT...

.A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEST WINDS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH LAKE EFFECT

SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU BY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH

SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKE

EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING

THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS: NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

* HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* TIMING: BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE

DAY SUNDAY.

* TEMPERATURES: LOWER 20S.

* IMPACTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAY MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS

THROUGHOUT NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

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SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1-2" FOR

THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF AREA ALTHOUGH 2-5" WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE

MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS

THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING

THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW

ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS

EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SNOW

BANDS WILL INITIALLY SET UP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY WITH A 280

TRAJECTORY...WITH LOCAL RESEARCH INDICATING INLAND EXTENT WILL BE AT

LEAST INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY EARLY. THEN...AS THE MEAN MIXED

LAYER FLOW VEERS TO A 270-260 TRAJECTORY...LAKE BANDS SHOULD SHIFT

NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER AND PERHAPS WESTERN HAMILTON

COUNTY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS BANDS WILL BE RATHER TRANSITORY SO

ENOUGH SNOW MAY NOT PILE UP TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH IT

SEEMS ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 3-6" WILL BE POSSIBLE

SO WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO

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...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH

SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT

SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

EVENING.

* LOCATIONS: WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

* HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* TIMING: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL FALL

ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO

THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING

WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO

SUNDAY EVENING. THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL

SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER A PERSISTENT LAKE

EFFECT BAND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE

WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ038&warncounty=NYC043&firewxzone=NYZ038&local_place1=Dolgeville+NY&product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Watch

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