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January 11-12 Snowstorm Disco


Baroclinic Zone

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What are peoples feeling on the timing for the heavy precip in SNE? Midnight till noon tomorrow?

Precip will just barely be arriving at midnight in many places in SNE; not expecting first flakes until after 3 AM in here in Boston.

Beyond that, it looks like this sucker peaks from 8-12, but there're still decent hours of snow to be had after that.

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Precip will just barely be arriving at midnight in many places in SNE; not expecting first flakes until after 3 AM in here in Boston.

Beyond that, it looks like this sucker peaks from 8-12, but there're still decent hours of snow to be had after that.

Thanks. Relatively quick mover, should keep those expecting 20" in check with reality.

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Something else to watch once we get into tonight is how the LLJ develops and how strong it becomes, seems to be quite a difference in the strength of it between the NAM/GFS and I think that could be playing a role in the differences in QPF...NAM has a beautiful 60-70 kt LLJ just crashing into us from the SE while the GFS is like 20-30 kt weaker and more from the E.

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I'd lean against that area changing over. Just NW of PVD looks to be an area that will jackpot.

Wild, just NE of PVD 4 straight miles, typically 2-3 degrees cooler, on Attleboro border. This storm plays with me big time, got a truck comming up from Virginia today. Guy asked what time we wanted to unload tomorrow morning I just laughed at him.

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The 00z model runs will still be important, but even if we had EXACT agreement between all the models under the sun, it still comes down to radar/obs watching since these intense storms throw all sorts of things at you that the models just can't exactly handle. Mesoscale things are always fickle. The bottom line is that there's a big dog coming...everyone is in the mix right now...no one should be down. Some will be disappointed in the end and some will be elated.

+1

The voice of reason.

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