mattlacroix4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm keeping it in mind. Just because it's a big let down for us up here I'm not discounting it. I'm thinking 6" mby ... hopefully that is too low. Yeah, but we need to remember that instead of just weighing the NAM against the GFS, which are vastly different, the Euro is on our side too. Model consensus gives us much more than 6, so you should not be let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning I know... Red eye in morning Blizzy is warning I wonder if this develops an eye like feature. Sat images Weds should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just a gorgeous sunrise this morning, lots of pinks, reds Red Sky in morning... er something... GFS is boring, NAM means take warning? I forget Red sky in morning, GFS is boring Red sky at night, NAM is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Phil MM 5 seems to be lock in step with Euro at fine detail, jackpots ELI RI BOS North Shore. I like its setup look. You would be OK.Also the geostrophic flow on this storm is signaling cold underbelly JMHO This is why I have a hard time buying the 06z NAM solution. I guess I'll see in about 1/2hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Valium available at the party see Wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You know, I didn't even notice sky cover. Sun's shinging and blue overhead, but immediately to my SW is a bank of clouds. Get excited. I had 9.8F when I left for work... a few amazingly lit clouds as I drove east towards work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 As well as here........... NAM BABY !!! Come to Papa! I love when these systems keep tcking NW. Beautiful red sky at sunrise. Still single digits here and a white sun. Perfect snow sky. 12-16 hrs to go time. Stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I disagree with this.... I think they will be wrong, but not a dig on them ...mainly because the NAM is my choice for guidance type on this event: MEETING ALL BLIZZARD CRITERIA /FREQUENT 35 MPH GUSTS OR 35 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS/ IS UNLIKELY. Using the NAM, there is no way to realize those QPF in snow, inside of 9 hours, with 35kts in middle BL flow, without registering a blizzard. Those winds will gust down with ease across 3-5 hours of max impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Phil MM 5 seems to be lock in step with Euro at fine detail, jackpots ELI RI BOS North Shore. I like its setup look. You would be OK.Also the geostrophic flow on this storm is signaling cold underbelly JMHO Man, thats one beautiful model output, Reeks of snowbomb, bigtime winds. I'm gitty someone pinch me...oh boy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The timing on this is such that I might be able to score another snow day from work. Not that I dislike my job, but I'd get to stay home, be a complete weenie and do naked snow angels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is why I have a hard time buying the 06z NAM solution. I guess I'll see in about 1/2hr. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Typical BS. These tracks always do this. Hopefully it goes east at the eleventh hour. I'm sick of western Suffolk County getting dumped on storm and storm the past decade. It's posts like this that get deleted. No whining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 When compiling a NESIS score for this, will totals in the SE be included, or would that be considered a distinct storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The timing on this is such that I might be able to score another snow day from work. Not that I dislike my job, but I'd get to stay home, be a complete weenie and do naked snow angels. That's why it's cool to work from home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Lol. Well the 06z NAM is the western outlier so I do have a valid point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The timing on this is such that I might be able to score another snow day from work. Not that I dislike my job, but I'd get to stay home, be a complete weenie and do naked snow angels. LOL me too, snow day sat day off sun mon , have to go in for a while today then wed off? Silicon naked weenism enroute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's posts like this that get deleted. No whining. Gotta' admit, despite a few scattered gripes this storm has seen the majority of posters on their best behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well the 06z NAM is the western outlier so I do have a valid point. TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 My Toro 828 has been waiting patiently for this day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Lol. On it's own, we shall see tomorrow, going high res from here out, you should clean up anyway it goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Phil MM 5 seems to be lock in step with Euro at fine detail, jackpots ELI RI BOS North Shore. I like its setup look. You would be OK.Also the geostrophic flow on this storm is signaling cold underbelly JMHO yeah steve...the good thing for you folks is the difference is meaningless really. for my area...there is a monster bust potential in both directions. the NMM is basically a snowbomb across 90% of the cape. some of the local WRF runs are as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I disagree with this.... I think they will be wrong, but not a dig on them ...mainly because the NAM is my choice for guidance type on this event: MEETING ALL BLIZZARD CRITERIA /FREQUENT 35 MPH GUSTS OR 35 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS/ IS UNLIKELY. Using the NAM, there is no way to realize those QPF in snow, inside of 9 hours, with 35kts in middle BL flow, without registering a blizzard. Those winds will gust down with ease across 3-5 hours of max impact. Sustained 35 kts (what is that... 39mph?) for 3 hours might be possible... but only on the Cape??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This seems amazing. Love snowstorms on top of snow. Condolences to snow lovers in Chicagoland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Question to the mets on blizzard criteria. I seem to remember a time where one of the criteria for blizzard was extreme or excessive cold. Am I wrong? To me, it speaks to severity - especially for travel. There is a huge difference in how your windshield wipers treat snow at 32 degrees and 20 degrees - especially when it's coming down hard like it will be tomorrow (we assume). Thanks all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiley1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What if any are the chances for thunder snow whith this storm in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Question to the mets on blizzard criteria. I seem to remember a time where one of the criteria for blizzard was extreme or excessive cold. Am I wrong? To me, it speaks to severity - especially for travel. There is a huge difference in how your windshield wipers treat snow at 32 degrees and 20 degrees - especially when it's coming down hard like it will be tomorrow (we assume). Thanks all. temperature used to be part of it. now it's just wind and visibility. i think it's a very close call for parts of the area. i see tip's point and also see BOX's reasoning. it's also a pretty short duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What if any are the chances for thunder snow whith this storm in SNE? I am willing to bet someone gets thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 What if any are the chances for thunder snow whith this storm in SNE? I think the best places for that, imo would be down in CT/LI when the undergoes bombogenesis. Cant' rule it out in RI/MA too though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Maybe Ekster should camp out at his parents, instead of Attlehole. Hope he does. I don't want the Ekster correction factor in my town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 any mixing issues with the euro in sne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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