ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Maybe you should have made a donation to the board?? You're right, I've been meaning to do that. Thanks for the reminder, will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Good forecast but probably underdone in SW areas. Too low...Even his buddy Oswego Wx on air this AM has 10-16 with lolli's to 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LOL with Ryan at 8-14 That's what he went with...nice to see. That's exactly what I was thinking of trimming down to but 8-16'' instead of 8-14''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LOL with Ryan at 8-14 bob at 10-16 with 20 lollis for central and ne ct. brad will weenie it up at 5 tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just woke up and first thing I saw was the Euro right over ACK. Balls being slammed against the wall with extreme force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Who cares? It's garbage. I sincerely hope there isn't anyone met or otherwise that is factoring any aspect of the GFS into their forecast Will said 70% NAM 30% GFS which is basically where the EURO and its ensembles are-- so that would be a 1.25" qpf average with some regions near 1" and others near 1.50" with a max of 1.75" thrown in over E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm going to an all day conference and have to present for an hour. Talk is 11:15. I'll probably start with model comparisons as folks will be concerned about tomorrow's storm...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It did.. 6z was more amped than 00z..It always always plays catch up..Garbage in/garbage out Yeah I agree it will play "catch up" but the NAM will come down as well...like I mentioned earlier, I'm thinking we'll see closer to 1-1.25'' QPF here in CT and thinking ratios will be around 12:1 maybe a bit more I'll side with 8-16'' with my next map but I just want to wait and see what the 12z models have to say regarding QPF and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Y'all think this will qualify as a KU or a near miss since it's really only a NYC and New England storm? I got slammed for this last night... Understandable since it was 12 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Who cares? It's garbage. I sincerely hope there isn't anyone met or otherwise that is factoring any aspect of the GFS into their forecast Call ALB immediately. MOST CONSERVATIVE HAS BEEN THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW THE FURTHEST OFFSHORE...AND ALL PARTS OF THE ALY FORECAST AREA AT LESS THAN AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT. MOST AGGRESSIVE HAS BEEN THE NAM WHICH CURRENTLY HAS OVER AN INCH LIQUID AS FAR WEST AS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN SARATOGA/SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES AREA. WHEN LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE PLUME DIAGRAMS FROM THE TWO...THE GFS MEMBERS ARE MUCH MORE CONSISTENT/SHOW MUCH LESS SPREAD THAN THE NAM. ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM MODELS. STILL BELIEVE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ALSO FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN THE GFS SOLUTION DUE TO THE BETTER CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HAVE FORECAST AMOUNTS THAT ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ELSEWHERE. THIS RESULTS IN SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN AREAS THAT RESULT IN THE NEED FOR WINTER STORM WARNINGS...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN 6 AND 16 INCHES IN THESE AREAS...BASED ON A SNOW TO LIQUID RATION OF 15:1 FOR THE EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 OP GFS is such a garbage model...ensembles ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I would favor a track now probably over or maybe JUST inside of ACK based on all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 And of course the SREF haven't strayed from the course one iota. Not to mention the NAM... Still sticking with 8-14'' for MBY, but that might be a hair conservative it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Who cares? It's garbage. I sincerely hope there isn't anyone met or otherwise that is factoring any aspect of the GFS into their forecast Welcome to the world of the Springfield DMA forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cannae Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Really liking the kbox snowfall map, south central Worcester County is a sweet spot. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm going to an all day conference and have to present for an hour. Talk is 11:15. I'll probably start with model comparisons as folks will be concerned about tomorrow's storm...... my experience in similar situations: the audience is far more interested in the weather bulletin than the talk itself ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Welcome to the world of the Springfield DMA forecasts. The don't want to upset anyone cause they know EVERYONE hates snow is this area.. cept' me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 my experience in similar situations: the audience is far more interested in the weather bulletin than the talk itself ... A given...lol.... Smart phones FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just woke up and first thing I saw was the Euro right over ACK. Balls being slammed against the wall with extreme force. At least you'll have some snow to ice them with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 And of course the SREF haven't strayed from the course one iota. Not to mention the NAM... Still sticking with 8-14'' for MBY, but that might be a hair conservative it seems. To be fair, the NAM has gone all over the place within a 50 miles envelope with no run to run consistency other than to say this low will be closer in than originally thought which appears to be a win for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 At least you'll have some snow to ice them with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 To be fair, the NAM has gone all over the place within a 50 miles envelope with no run to run consistency other than to say this low will be closer in than originally thought which appears to be a win for it. Yes, that's a good point...though I meant it hasn't really wavered with the overall further west situation, which you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southshorewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like mixing issues up to Plymouth but not to much further north? What did the GFS do to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is it me or did the WRF-ARW 48hr pcp accumulation map look extremely similar to last night's Euro PCP @ 48? They both have the purple in the same general area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm going to an all day conference and have to present for an hour. Talk is 11:15. I'll probably start with model comparisons as folks will be concerned about tomorrow's storm...... Slideshow of messengers animated overlays included? Hope you get 16"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Fire away boyz and girlz. New thread. Will you can close this one. http://www.americanw...1-12-snowstorm/ Be back on in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Typhoon tip described beautifully how this storm would behave and if you look at radar you'd think he had a magic ball i think models have been analyzed enough time to watch she looks pissed off folks buoy readings get much more important now see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah. Typical Tuesday morning for me on the shore. Out of bed before 6 am. Woke the kids up for school. Clicked on NWS. Saw a ho-hum 13"-21" and started on with another routine day. Got to this board. Saw something about a KU. Wow, I'm in a rut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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