weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I seriously need to learn how to use photoshop or whatever some of those maps are muxh more presenting than mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 :snowman: :snowman: :snowman: Nice map! Btw, how do you get the snowfall swaths to only stay on land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice map! Btw, how do you get the snowfall swaths to only stay on land? LOL I was wondering the same thing. I think you need to cut out only the land and have that as a layer and then using PS you can add things JUST to that layer. I am guessing anyways. Maybe we can get a copy of the template too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 map centered on southern New England. extrapolate the 12-18" area northeastward or check out the larger image in the NYC/PHL forum. (that shows areas a bit further west and south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm in everyone's jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 My final map..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice map! Btw, how do you get the snowfall swaths to only stay on land? LOL I was wondering the same thing. I think you need to cut out only the land and have that as a layer and then using PS you can add things JUST to that layer. I am guessing anyways. Maybe we can get a copy of the template too? Paintshop is great. Once learned it can be easy. I just offset colors by a fraction and then use the zero tolerence.No layers or raster just flatten back to basemap. You can use any scale and really get into details right down to pixel. The initial map drawn per NAM is probably underdone. It gon snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiley1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Per the new 00z Nam with implied Bufkit omega/dendritic snow growth ratios.... That would be a historic hit something like the Blizzard of 1978 the question is wouldnt the storm have to slow down or stall to get those amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 That would be a historic hit something like the Blizzard of 1978 the question is wouldnt the storm have to slow down or stall to get those amounts? I think if I had to shovel 40" of snow I'd stop liking it Yeah, I would think it would have to stall and dump on us for almost a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Kevin BETTER say I'm not too low Discussion: Well folks the weather pattern continues to be very active and after a weekend which featured two snowfall events, which turned out to be pretty significant for some, we look right ahead to our next threat, which will be tomorrow night through much of the afternoon on Wednesday, and this storm looks like it will be a massive hit. There has been some excellent model agreement going on over the past few days in regards to this storm, all models show a hit and show a pretty big hit, some even show an absolute pounding. At this stage I think it's pretty much fair to say that we are going to get a storm and we are going to get a big one, in fact this storm has potential to produce much higher widespread snowfall totals than the blizzard did just a day after Christmas. A strong negatively tilted trough will be swinging through the Northeast over the next couple of days with lots of energy, given the upper-level pattern we will see favorable development for rapid cyclogenesis occur right along the coast just south of our region, as this system moves northward it will continue to rapidly strengthen and draw in a great deal of moisture. Given how the storm track will be to the south and east out our region this should be an all snow event, however, it's still possible this storm tracks far enough to the west to where parts of eastern MA (mainly the Cape area) experience a period of mixing. This will have to be watched as we get closer to the event. With such rapid deepening and a negatively tilted trough there will be an incredible amount of lift over the region, this coupled with excellent moisture convergence and surface convergence will lead to a period of extremely heavy snowfall, given how strong the lift is coupled with great moisture advection and warm air advection into the storm the potential does exist for thundersnow as well, if this occurs we will see further enhancement of the snowfall rates. It's possible some of the snowfall rates in the heaviest banding could exceed 3-5''/HR rates. This would dump a great deal of snow in a small time frame as well as causing whiteout conditions at times. This system should also feature some strong winds, although nothing like we saw in the blizzard, however, with the potential for strong winds and heavy snowfall some locations may experience blizzard conditions at times. Forecast: I pretty much think the hardest hit areas will be from most of CT out through all of RI and up through NE MA...the track of the system is VERY favorable for these areas to get pounded and pounded hard. Somewhere in this area is where we are likely to see a strong band setup, this band will lead to produce the highest snowfall totals and whoever gets under this banding could potentially see close to 24'' of snow...possibly a few inches more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 solid background here: map.bmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am chucking them high, I am chucking them far Disucssion: We are only several hours away from the beginning of what will be a very significant winter storm for the entire region. A strong area of low pressure is currently working through the Ohio Valley region and another intense area of low pressure is working up the coast. The system moving through the Ohio Valley region has been responsible for dropping several inches of snow across portions of OH/IL/IN...the system working up the coast has been responsible for some major snowfall accumulations for places like Atlanta, GA! As the system in the Ohio Valley works eastward it will begin to transfer it's energy towards the system working up the coast and as this process occurs we will see a very intense storm develop, in fact this process is already occurring as we speak. As the system continues to strengthen and go through rapid cyclogenesis it will draw in ample amounts of moisture into the region. Some computer models show a very strong and intense low-level jet, in excess of 60-70 knots feeding into the storm and into our region from the SE...this will be responsible for supplying the storm with plenty of moisture. With the rapid deepening and virtually perfect storm track this will place our region in the area of best lift, couple this with ample amounts of moisture and you have the ingredients needed to produce a significant snowstorm. Forecast: Snowfall should begin sometime late this evening and last through the overnight and through a good part of the morning tomorrow, while this really won't be a long duration snowfall event it will pack a major punch as this storm is expected to drop alot of snow in a short period of time. At the height of the storm snowfall rates of 2-4'' per hour can be expected, and in some cases even 5-6''/HR rates can't be ruled out given the level of lift we are dealing with coupled with available moisture. With such strong lift, great deal of forcing, and great deal of WAA into the storm, there should also be a great deal of instability, this will lead to embedded pockets of thunderstorms. Within these embedded pockets is where the heaviest snowfall will occur and the heaviest snowfall rates, winds may also be quite gusty as well, possibly gusting up to or perhaps over 40 mph, this will lead to whiteout conditions at times and make for blizzard conditions at times. Thinking is the highest snowfall totals will occur in a swatch from N CT up through NE MA...this is where consensus is on the heaviest banding setting up. Snowfall totals will be a bit less to the west of this area as these areas will be a bit further removed from the storm. Further east out towards SE MA and the Cape some issues with regards to potential dry slotting and mixing may limit snowfall totals out across this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 JKeeping my map the same, 12-24 statewide though admittedly I should narrow it down to more specifics and possibly lower the very western edge of CT.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 . . . Call it the truth. All kinds of science that you folks just don't know about, or even understand used to come up with this beauty. Arsewipe thanks buddy, go ahead and PM me again from East butt cheek mass, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 fairly good confidence in this, only two areas of moderate confidence would be southeast New England (RI/SE MA) and also the western boundary of 4-8" was really tough...gradients and banding are going to be killer, but radar looks very impressive so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 fairly good confidence in this, only two areas of moderate confidence would be southeast New England (RI/SE MA) and also the western boundary of 4-8" was really tough...gradients and banding are going to be killer, but radar looks very impressive so far. It would be something if this verifies. I don't recall seeing over 11" in Woodstock from a single storm since maybe 2005? I'm just relying on memory, but it's been a long time since we've seen a big storm in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It would be something if this verifies. I don't recall seeing over 11" in Woodstock from a single storm since maybe 2005? I'm just relying on memory, but it's been a long time since we've seen a big storm in these parts. northeast CT is funny, I feel like we go in phases...when I moved to Woodstock, I think we had a few really big events, but when I lived further south in the Chaplin area, we didn't seem to crack 11" much there either. (but this was pre-2002) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 northeast CT is funny, I feel like we go in phases...when I moved to Woodstock, I think we had a few really big events, but when I lived further south in the Chaplin area, we didn't seem to crack 11" much there either. (but this was pre-2002) We seem to see a lot of dryslots while western CT gets hammered. Then there was Mattfm's year when ENE got hammered... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This map is going to verify pretty well. Nice job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This map is going to verify pretty well. Nice job! Yeah its almost perfect except more was needed in west MA and CT...otherwise great map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 My final map..... Ship it!!!! I think I busted in the NW hills though but I haven't see totals yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This map is going to verify pretty well. Nice job! Yeah its almost perfect except more was needed in west MA and CT...otherwise great map. Thank you guys! I really appreciate it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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