moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 They'll be on ewall in a bit. Huh--I don't see a section their for 18z ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here's the 72 QPF. The other day CoastalWx/Scott was telling me that the GEFS were less meaningful to him at this range vs the OP. I'm presuming that's resolution but I'm not sure I got an answer on that? I was saying that at 48 hours out, it's time to start using the op solution and less ensembles, but it would be a case by case basis. If there is still wiggle room potential that would cause a big change in sensible wx, I think it's wise to incorporate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 There's your 25-30 call Yeah, if we take 150% of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah, if we take 150% of that. Maybe it's a simple rounding issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not sure you saw the bump...the other day you were telling me the GFS ENS at this range were less meaningful to you v the OP. Is that resolution based or just personal preference? GFS ensembles are usually southeast of the OP run...almost all the time...especially in coastal systems. If you see them northwest consistently, I've found it to be a bit of a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Guys...these threads shouldn't be going over 1k. Time to move it over to the other one. I'll close this in 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 3 I already know his forecast..10-16 with iso amts to 18 is what he would issue on air Brad going for 8-16'' widespread...pretty solid call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It seems i might have a chance at deform heaven in bridgton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 welp...I even finished my presentation despite my excitement...tomorrow though will be talking to people live. otoh...nothing wrong with going to pee 30 times and looking at my phone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I was saying that at 48 hours out, it's time to start using the op solution and less ensembles, but it would be a case by case basis. If there is still wiggle room potential that would cause a big change in sensible wx, I think it's wise to incorporate it. Got it. I didn't know if we covered whether there was a resolution difference on the GEFS v GFS...I think they're the same early? Yeah, if we take 150% of that. Lol that was funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 3 I already know his forecast..10-16 with iso amts to 18 is what he would issue on air Sounds reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 wwlp is going 6 to 8 for me wtf haha!!? Rip and read the GFS. Brian and crew are on the job and doing their best! I interned there with Brian for a bit, and while he's no Harvey Leonard, I can vouch that he's not a pure rip and reader. When your primary market is from Enfield, CT up the valley through Greenfield, you're wise to show caution. Basically make a forecast based on the models and subtract 25% at least. Try to keep the surprise to the upside. And I bet they bump it up to 8-14" tonight. (also 6-8 is a smaller than normal range, so maybe they'll go with 10-12 or something.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS ensembles are usually southeast of the OP run...almost all the time...especially in coastal systems. If you see them northwest consistently, I've found it to be a bit of a red flag. How so? I wondered this because the other day they were NW of the OP and everything ended up further SE in terms of the "comma" head. Noted it a couple of other times, but I suppose that could be the result of a few members going balls to the walls skewing the party? This seems like sort of a new thing that inside of 36-48 hours we're relying on the ensembles quite a bit...I realize the EC ens are a different ballgame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Guys...these threads shouldn't be going over 1k. Time to move it over to the other one. http://www.americanw...-january-11-12/ I'll close this in 5 minutes. You want to merge like the last 10-15 posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How so? I wondered this because the other day they were NW of the OP and everything ended up further SE in terms of the "comma" head. Noted it a couple of other times, but I suppose that could be the result of a few members going balls to the walls skewing the party? This seems like sort of a new thing that inside of 36-48 hours we're relying on the ensembles quite a bit...I realize the EC ens are a different ballgame Well given that their solution also happens to agree with SREF and Euro ensembles, its also confidence that the OP GFS is probably too far SE. If you take all the guidance as a whole. I don't think its ever as simple as just saying "ensembles are NW of OP, so that means its coming NW"....you want to take a look and see how that compares to other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 my start time according to the nws is about 28 hours 8pm to midnight tue so its closing fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 OK, time to migrate...if you want to merge the last few posts we can....but I think it probably doesn't matter...it will get buried in minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah, if we take 150% of that. Kevin is now forecasting for the slant stickers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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