Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

NNE slowly approaching winter


dendrite

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Mix of sleet and snow ... grill cover analysis shows a coating of accumulation. First of the season.

29.3F

Congrats man... you've been waiting patiently for that :snowman::thumbsup:

32F on the nose with -ZR... dark outside so can't tell that well, but it looks like we've been all ZR here as there doesn't appear to be any snow/sleet accum.

Now time to drive the couple miles up to the mountain where the sensor is showing 28F at the base just above 1,500ft, with 28F at 2,300ft, and 24F now on the Mansfield summit obs. How are we not sleeting with that sort of profile? That's indicating sub-freezing air 3,000ft above my head.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We must've just mixed or the front moved through because the temp shot up from 30F to 34-35F at 1,550ft... while at 3,600ft the temp just fell from 32F to 28F. Its now straight out snowing above 2,000ft and raining here at the base... so we are back to a more normal, elevation-dependent snow with plain rain in the lower elevations.

Edit: Also just got extremely windy... we are now getting some impressive gusts in the lower elevations. Inversion definitely just mixed out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We must've just mixed or the front moved through because the temp shot up from 30F to 34-35F at 1,550ft... while at 3,600ft the temp just fell from 32F to 28F. Its now straight out snowing above 2,000ft and raining here at the base... so we are back to a more normal, elevation-dependent snow with plain rain in the lower elevations.

Edit: Also just got extremely windy... we are now getting some impressive gusts in the lower elevations. Inversion definitely just mixed out.

Up to 37F now at 1,550ft... temp is cruising up at the base while at the summit it keeps dropping, so we are certainly seeing CAA at the H9-H85 level now.

Scud clouds are absolutely flying by right now so the wind must be howling up on the ridge at 4,000ft and above.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Began as IP about 4:45 AM IMBY, then changed to mostly snow - rimey flakes with some IP now and then. Reported 0.8" with 0.14" LE to cocorahs, and total was 1.4" at 10 AM (LE not updated, probably a bit under 1/4") when I came in from the deer chase. Saw partridge and red squirrel tracks, but the only evidence of hooved animals was the mooing of cows on the neighbor farm. Just freezing dz now, temp upper 20s.

Snowsled motored down our road a few minutes ago, toward the club trail on the unmaintained part a few hundred feet past my place. Hope he stuck to that part; if he tried the trail where it goes thru our woodlot he'd soon be plowing mud. Sled came out after 5-10 minutes, but I didn't see it to observe whether he'd found the muck.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Began as IP about 4:45 AM IMBY, then changed to mostly snow - rimey flakes with some IP now and then. Reported 0.8" with 0.14" LE to cocorahs, and total was 1.4" at 10 AM (LE not updated, probably a bit under 1/4") when I came in from the deer chase. Saw partridge and red squirrel tracks, but the only evidence of hooved animals was the mooing of cows on the neighbor farm. Just freezing dz now, temp upper 20s.

Snowsled motored down our road a few minutes ago, toward the club trail on the unmaintained part a few hundred feet past my place. Hope he stuck to that part; if he tried the trail where it goes thru our woodlot he'd soon be plowing mud. Sled came out after 5-10 minutes, but I didn't see it to observe whether he'd found the muck.

Got to be a nut to take a sled out now, Good way to break the suspension banging rocks and stumps.......

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey guys... I was just thinking after reading the observations that I'm not even sure exactly where some of you are, especially you NH and ME folks.

Using the mesomap right now I decided to mark my location with a red dot (should've made it bigger, its inside blue circle on lower right of the 33F box). The blue circle is just to show where my obs from the mountain/work are coming from. Those two stations are ones I use at work... 33F is at 1,600ft at the base of Stowe ski resort and the 21F is the summit at 3,900ft. My home is just down the road but like 800ft lower, so I generally run a few degrees warmer than the base area (like right now its 36F out).

I'd be curious to see where some of the rest of you are (like Wxeye, Jayhawk, Dryslot, Tamarack, etc)...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

upslope snow in the greens later today/tonite/tommorrow

is the trajectory from the west a good enough angle to clear the highest peaks in the adirondacks....powerderfreak?

I'm actually thinking most of our snow shower activity will come in just ahead of the front and during the actual FROPA. It does have a very WINDEX/squally look to it (thanks Coastalwx). The trajectory of the lake effect snow from Ontario looks to be aimed more at far northern VT, in the Jay Peak region. Then as the short wave and front moves through, it pushes the lake band southward. We see this several times a winter and what will happen is the the flow off Ontario will cause moisture to pool in the St Lawrence Valley and northern Champlain Valley (you'll see slightly higher dew points in that region than compared with surrounding areas)... then as the front comes in, it will act on that moisture and cause snow showers and squalls, especially in the upslope and mountain regions.

With the lake effect off Ontario, what usually happens is it will dump in the western Adirondacks... downslope into the Champlain Valley... then upslope again over the Greens causing snow showers to re-develop over the mountains. So it won't be one continuous band of snow stretching from Lake Ontario into the Greens, but you'll see a break in the radar over the Champlain Valley with snow re-developing over the Greens to the east of the Champlain Valley.

Here's BTV's WRF model and the 24 hour precipitation forecast valid from 12z SAT to 12z SUN:

Although the above graphic is over a 24 hour period, most of this falls before and during the frontal passage, in a 3-4 hour period on Saturday afternoon, with the bulk coming in a 1 hour period of squalls. You can clearly see the Champlain Valley dryslot, and then the upsloping of moisture over the Greens causing another precipitation maximum.

Check out Jay Peak which is showed to have a small area of .5-.75" of QPF... they could certainly pick up a quick 6-10" from these snow showers and squalls with good ratios. Most of the rest of the Greens are looking at a more general 1-4" snowfall from snow showers.

Another interesting thing is watching the snow showers and squalls downslope into the CT River Valley along the VT/NH border, then another resurgence of QPF along the NW slopes of the Whites... before finally dying out over southeastern NH and southwestern ME.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey guys... I was just thinking after reading the observations that I'm not even sure exactly where some of you are, especially you NH and ME folks.

Using the mesomap right now I decided to mark my location with a red dot (should've made it bigger, its inside blue circle on lower right of the 33F box). The blue circle is just to show where my obs from the mountain/work are coming from. Those two stations are ones I use at work... 33F is at 1,600ft at the base of Stowe ski resort and the 21F is the summit at 3,900ft. My home is just down the road but like 800ft lower, so I generally run a few degrees warmer than the base area (like right now its 36F out).

I'd be curious to see where some of the rest of you are (like Wxeye, Jayhawk, Dryslot, Tamarack, etc)...

I guess you must not have signatures enabled - this is on mine. Here I am!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess you must not have signatures enabled - this is on mine. Here I am!

Ahh, nice. Yeah I don't have sigs on... I find its much easier to read through the posts without them.

I would've assumed you were further NE for some reason. Looks like a great spot to be in for a good, cold, nor'easter :thumbsup:

Glad you had some frozen this morning!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm actually thinking most of our snow shower activity will come in just ahead of the front and during the actual FROPA. It does have a very WINDEX/squally look to it (thanks Coastalwx). The trajectory of the lake effect snow from Ontario looks to be aimed more at far northern VT, in the Jay Peak region. Then as the short wave and front moves through, it pushes the lake band southward. We see this several times a winter and what will happen is the the flow off Ontario will cause moisture to pool in the St Lawrence Valley and northern Champlain Valley (you'll see slightly higher dew points in that region than compared with surrounding areas)... then as the front comes in, it will act on that moisture and cause snow showers and squalls, especially in the upslope and mountain regions.

With the lake effect off Ontario, what usually happens is it will dump in the western Adirondacks... downslope into the Champlain Valley... then upslope again over the Greens causing snow showers to re-develop over the mountains. So it won't be one continuous band of snow stretching from Lake Ontario into the Greens, but you'll see a break in the radar over the Champlain Valley with snow re-developing over the Greens to the east of the Champlain Valley.

Here's BTV's WRF model and the 24 hour precipitation forecast valid from 12z SAT to 12z SUN:

Although the above graphic is over a 24 hour period, most of this falls before and during the frontal passage, in a 3-4 hour period on Saturday afternoon, with the bulk coming in a 1 hour period of squalls. You can clearly see the Champlain Valley dryslot, and then the upsloping of moisture over the Greens causing another precipitation maximum.

Check out Jay Peak which is showed to have a small area of .5-.75" of QPF... they could certainly pick up a quick 6-10" from these snow showers and squalls with good ratios. Most of the rest of the Greens are looking at a more general 1-4" snowfall from snow showers.

Another interesting thing is watching the snow showers and squalls downslope into the CT River Valley along the VT/NH border, then another resurgence of QPF along the NW slopes of the Whites... before finally dying out over southeastern NH and southwestern ME.

Nice post. I wonder if we'll be able to get some squalls as far south as Killington/Okemo tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey guys... I was just thinking after reading the observations that I'm not even sure exactly where some of you are, especially you NH and ME folks.

Using the mesomap right now I decided to mark my location with a red dot

If enough people mark their location, I might plot us all on the map and use that as the new base for the mesomap.

Might be neat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ahh, nice. Yeah I don't have sigs on... I find its much easier to read through the posts without them.

I would've assumed you were further NE for some reason. Looks like a great spot to be in for a good, cold, nor'easter :thumbsup:

Glad you had some frozen this morning!

My sig is full of good information and t-shirt offers. lol

Nor'easter potential is very nice here, though being only 25 miles from the ocean I'm always keeping a wary eye on the r/s line.

Yes, a coating of frozen stuff today - mostly sleet - and though the sun came out just after noon most of it has remained on the ground. So I'll be able to enjoy it for at least into tomorrow.

Nice potential for early December. Hvy hvy model watching and met reading.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...