Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9 - Part II


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

My experience-when the RGEM and NAM agree, it's usually pretty good

It's one model but looks a lot like the RGEM.

We're finally seeing the progression come to fruition with all centers closing off under us and viola, blizzardo.

Compact little bugger though but that's the nature of this beast shall it form.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

as for today...doesn't look like anyone east of BDR...or maybe HVN gets into any significant action until nightfall. Gonna be a long day watching that band inch eastward. Unfortunately it may also ease up in intensity as it does so. Really looks like only a 1-3" event east of 91...maybe a couple isolated 4" amounts where ratios max out.

School thankfully still open here with no early dismissal either...and if they're smart they will be able to fit in a full day. Towns like Guilford and Madison closing early though...even though I could see them not seeing another flake until after 4pm today arrowheadsmiley.png

Virtually what I have been Mr. Kevin says I'm too low.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM's been heading this direction for the past 36 hours or so with more interaction between the two pieces of energy that rotate out of the ULL, consequently sharpening the wave and shifting the surface low closer to land. GGEM sort of jumped ahead and stole the thunder and beat it to the punch but this run pretty much confirms the trend of the model for the past handful of runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Virtually what I have been Mr. Kevin says I'm too low.

I'm with you...I've been suspecting it since yesterday as well...but was kind of holding off hope that models were underplaying the mesoband a bit. But they've been pretty consistent petering the thing out as it move east as well as speeding it up a bit. I just don't see how anyone east of I-91 gets more than maybe 0.2" QPF out of this thing...so gonna take some good ratios to get up to 4"...not impossible and I still think a couple places will do it...but it won't be widespread.

I'm actually a little more comfortable that this thing likely doesn't move in until after dark here on the shoreline. Good chance we eek above freezing today down here, and if snowfall rates were light, I was concerned about daytime accumulations...better shot with the band moving in after dark.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eh, both I guess.

I still want to see the rest of the suite, but messenger gets his storm 3 fetish it appears.

Yeah what a terrible win if it happens, everyone gets more snow from the storm than the death trough.

Sure to the western/nw flank it's a trough signature, but it's winding up a closed low for a time down south of us. It's a fickle interaction as Phil says and we need a lot of agreement because the NAM has pulled this stunt recently with NYC and that vanished.

Model support FTW would be nice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm with you...I've been suspecting it since yesterday as well...but was kind of holding off hope that models were underplaying the mesoband a bit. But they've been pretty consistent petering the thing out as it move east as well as speeding it up a bit. I just don't see how anyone east of I-91 gets more than maybe 0.2" QPF out of this thing...so gonna take some good ratios to get up to 4"...not impossible and I still think a couple places will do it...but it won't be widespread.

I'm actually a little more comfortable that this thing likely doesn't move in until after dark here on the shoreline. Good chance we eek above freezing today down here, and if snowfall rates were light, I was concerned about daytime accumulations...better shot with the band moving in after dark.

Yeah I don't have a great feeling at all about the mesoscale banding setting up that far east either, which is why I kept the highest snowfall totals confined to western CT/MA...they should also see some upslope enhancement as well.

I'm not really impressed for how long the best features stays together or for how long they last. I think were looking at a real short window of heavier snowfall and this will have a major impact on accumulations. Like you said, were going to need to see some good ratios and we'd also need to see some pretty nice snowfall rates too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like some spots in CT could also potentially pick up another 1-3''...maybe spot higher amounts as well on Sunday.

hell...3-6" in eastern CT if NAM is right. We'll see if any other models catch onto the idea. But really starting to think at least eastern areas get into some more snow on Sunday...even the 0z GFS last night brushed them with a couple inches.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Call me the wet rag but the 42 hour NAM is just too good to be true down here. Low's closing off through the mid levels just thumping snow. There's been so many changes in tight even though the trend really seems to be good I just can't get too excited. I wish this popped a little later, 42 is the NAM witching hour.

It's not like its the first model to show some decent snows though. Maybe overdone a bit...but even the 0z GFS from last night gave a solid 1-4" to SE areas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...