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Coastal Storm Potential - Jan 11-12


Baroclinic Zone

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I've got a weatherfella type cold all of a sudden by I read this as a shift east...12z GEFS vs 18z.

I really hope the 18z was a burp. I'm not sold that the problems in modeling were all tied to the blocking. It's time to just wait it out for the 0z. I dont know what's going on with my editor...the 2nd wetter image is actually the 12z GEFS..it keeps reversing them on me.

EDIT: I really don't like what I saw at 18z at all. Been down this road and it ends badly. Yes there are differences this time in terms of moisture early on and probably a track further north all across the board, but as wxwatcher was saying the heights not relenting in the SE leads to these lobes of vorticity being fired off the Carolinas/NJ like a baseball through a pitching machine. AGAIN ALL JUST BASED on these last two runs. I have to put the disclaimers in now for the copy paste group.

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I've got a weatherfella type cold all of a sudden by I read this as a shift east...12z GEFS vs 18z.

I really hope the 18z was a burp. I'm not sold that the problems in modeling were all tied to the blocking. It's time to just wait it out for the 0z. I dont know what's going on with my editor...the 2nd wetter image is actually the 12z GEFS..it keeps reversing them on me.

EDIT: I really don't like what I saw at 18z at all. Been down this road and it ends badly. Yes there are differences this time in terms of moisture early on and probably a track further north all across the board, but as wxwatcher was saying the heights not relenting in the SE leads to these lobes of vorticity being fired off the Carolinas/NJ like a baseball through a pitching machine. AGAIN ALL JUST BASED on these last two runs. I have to put the disclaimers in now for the copy paste group.

Have you ever met a storm that you liked? Probably caught a cold walking around the Cape in your Penny loafers snapping pics for the Phil investigation.

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JB:

In the big cities.. 3-6 around DC, and toward BWI, increasing to 6-12 PHL and then averaging 12 around NYC with local amounts 18. The -8 and -3 isotherms will play ratio games with this storm and the western cut off wont be as sharp, though I dont think the city will get the amount they did with the blizzard, Once to PVD and Boston look out.. 12-18 locally 24.. Its a classic.

I like the European and its featured on the arctic hound. Obviously the GFS feedback from last week crushed the operational models ideas, and I want to do a little teaching here. Remember me brining up why the model was in la la land.. the MOVE THE NAO TOWARD POSITIVE WAS NOT GOING TO ALLOW THIS STORM TO ESCAPE! Also this had the big storm on it from the word go, as it would get its act together further west. I got fooled by the first of the tandem in the Christmas event, learned my lesson and so the relative big city non event this weekend was seen well in advance, though like the miss on the pre Christmas event, there was some heavy snow.. atlantic city yesterday and the southern connecticut the day before. But this is much more the classic big storm look.

Notice also that again, that the southern branch came out of a money in the bank feature, that came out of the northern branch. Like the Christmas storm there is a diminishing of the precip before reloading, but the players on the field are far enough south and west to make sure it snows this time in the Ohio valley and into the DC, BWI area and of course the snow hole further north. I dont really think that DC can be labeled that the way a State College or Allentown can. Why? Well if its supposed to snow in those northern places, DC is not a snowy place

Now the question is, will a blizzard warning be issued for someone. The GFS is still playing catch up, but should get this strong enough that the combination of wind, snow and cold may force some places to get a blizzard warning for the second time this winter. better bet in New England than NYC and Jersey, but they are still in the game.

ed

Where can I find that?  Who is JB?

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