Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is similar to the GFS of 0z but different in a few key ways: 1. It gets the first system further out of the way 2. It's slower/deeper with the PV, so everything begins to develop 6-12 hours earlier which IMO would take the GFS solution and shift it west by 40-80 miles. Same end result with a low stuck just happening earlier and further SW. OSU I think that 2nd system is probably going to be an aberration. Sure we'll see some deep moisture move out with it, but the NAM is confused I think in trying to develop a reflection all the way down to the surface there. Many many details to iron out but if you could draw up a. 5 h....... This is very very similar only further North to the whiteout blizzard Balt and DC had last year, that is one cold and deep polar ULL, dynamics should be impressive verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is similar to the GFS of 0z but different in a few key ways: 1. It gets the first system further out of the way 2. It's slower/deeper with the PV, so everything begins to develop 6-12 hours earlier which IMO would take the GFS solution and shift it west by 40-80 miles. Same end result with a low stuck just happening earlier and further SW. OSU I think that 2nd system is probably going to be an aberration. Sure we'll see some deep moisture move out with it, but the NAM is confused I think in trying to develop a reflection all the way down to the surface there. If you look at your KU book...there was also an initial OTS system in 78...there is a closed low at 850mb at 00z 05 Feb 1978 which is depicted about 200 miles NW of Bermuda. That system was no doubt weaker than the one depicted on the NAM, however. In 78, low-level baroclinic zone was well off the US East Coast. It was only through rapid deepening of the initial instant occlusion low that backed the baroclinicty toward the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is a good start to the 12Z suite. Most important takeaways to me are always what is happening out to 48 hours on the NAM - SPV dipping under us yet again. - trend to a faster first system slipping out and less interference. what else to take from the short range nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ginxy, please give the blasphemers hell. Cold,windy with snsh here at2k.CoT shall prevail. I like Messenger and his analysis but definitely refracted through a CC lens.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 NAm basically would have it snowing lightly from late Thursday nite-Saturday out past 84 hrs. Not bad..I'm sure there'd be some breaks in there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Please drop the SPV term, look at the hemispheric map at say 96 hours , where is the PV, hmm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ginxy, please give the blasphemers hell. Cold,windy with snsh here at2k.CoT shall prevail. I like Messenger and his analysis but definitely refracted through a CC lens.lol Work! Gotta work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Nice work Mahk. On a break here on the site. Beautiful Winter day here. Lake frozen w/ice fishermen and snowmobiles running about. Confident this system pays dividends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Wow, the 12z NAM's structure in its poorer verification range is something to behold.. The southern/intermediate stream being caught up in the fast flow proves to much to provide phase. However, it does impart enough weakening of the geopotential medium S that when the retrograding block at high latitudes presses W and triggers the SPV to move S it is just comes down with so much power that the phase is less necessary on this run. Seemed that the last several cycles were heading that way actually via extrapolation, actuallly. It is interesting to see that solution start to emerge - thus. On this run we have light to moderate QPF busting out in snows from DCA-BOS, everywhere, and the next panel if could be seen would DEFINITELY register bombogenesis with that extremeness aloft approaching the Del Marva. Unfortunately we have to nod to NAM's typical poorer latter ranges and wait that out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NAm basically would have it snowing lightly from late Thursday nite-Saturday out past 84 hrs. Not bad..I'm sure there'd be some breaks in there somewhere. Nam gives Jerry Ray 6 inches pre, sort of like you with the burly men prior to escaping to the bedroom with the old lady for the real deal, your version of fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 John said he likes the SPV terminology. Although it would be hard pressed to say that if that isn't the PV, then I don't know what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 06z GFS looks great....I approve and everything is right with the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Nam gives Jerry Ray 6 inches pre, sort of like you with the burly men prior to escaping to the bedroom with the old lady for the real deal, your version of fantasy. Gives us all nice light snows all day Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Also, I do believe the QPF in eastern Mass on the 78 and 84 hour panels is an attempt at OES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This is similar to the GFS of 0z but different in a few key ways: 1. It gets the first system further out of the way 2. It's slower/deeper with the PV, so everything begins to develop 6-12 hours earlier which IMO would take the GFS solution and shift it west by 40-80 miles. Same end result with a low stuck just happening earlier and further SW. OSU I think that 2nd system is probably going to be an aberration. Sure we'll see some deep moisture move out with it, but the NAM is confused I think in trying to develop a reflection all the way down to the surface there. Nice analysis messenger. Wow, the 12z NAM's structure in its poorer verification range is something to behold.. The southern/intermediate stream being caught up in the fast flow proves to much to provide phase. However, it does impart enough weakening of the geopotential medium S that when the retrograding block at high latitudes presses W and triggers the SPV to move S it is just comes down with so much power that the phase is less necessary on this run. Seemed that the last several cycles were heading that way actually via extrapolation, actuallly. It is interesting to see that solution start to emerge - thus. On this run we have light to moderate QPF busting out in snows from DCA-BOS, everywhere, and the next panel if could be seen would DEFINITELY register bombogenesis with that extremeness aloft approaching the Del Marva. Unfortunately we have to nod to NAM's typical poorer latter ranges and wait that out... John whats the difference between a SPV and a PV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Many many details to iron out but if you could draw up a. 5 h....... This is very very similar only further North to the whiteout blizzard Balt and DC had last year, that is one cold and deep polar ULL, dynamics should be impressive verbatim. I'd agree with that. It's similar in some limited senses to even the 30" blizzard in NJ last week but I think all signs point to all of this happening further ENE this time. If you look at your KU book...there was also an initial OTS system in 78...there is a closed low at 850mb at 00z 05 Feb 1978 which is depicted about 200 miles NW of Bermuda. That system was no doubt weaker than the one depicted on the NAM, however. In 78, low-level baroclinic zone was well off the US East Coast. It was only through rapid deepening of the initial instant occlusion low that backed the baroclinicty toward the coast. It was the initial impulse OTS that had Don Kent, Harvey and the rest believing this wasn't going to be a big deal at about this stage. With that strong of an ULL moving down none of it matters if it tracks where we need it to track. Work! Gotta work! I don't refract anything I just don't have the equivalent of snow beer goggles on either. I can see why some models make this a light-modest hit just based on mass confusion. We have a lot of perfect solutions that miss just like we have less than ideal solutions result in hits like two weeks ago. The NAM would be noticeably better than the GFS but we have one model that's always too fast (GFS) and one that has a slow bias at times (NAM) and from every previous system this winter we know we're in the witching hour still. It will be 12z Wednesday before we see more clarity IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Also, I do believe the QPF in eastern Mass on the 78 and 84 hour panels is an attempt at OES Especially with a nice east to northeasterly 850mb flow and nice -6 to -9C 850mb temps. Should be light in nature though. Our best storms are preceded by Easterly to Northeasterly OES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Also, I do believe the QPF in eastern Mass on the 78 and 84 hour panels is an attempt at OES I think there is a component of low-level convergence/isentropic lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NAM looks awesome....any snow is good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Nice analysis messenger. John whats the difference between a SPV and a PV? eh, just semantics really - I was half giving you a hard time. Although, "technically" SPV would mean Sub-Polar Vortex (I did answer you yesterday, btw...), whereas PV would pertain to Polar Vortex, and is the proper definition for the annular ring of westerlies around the pole. If you understand that, SPV would apply more succinctly to these closed features near 55 or so N that have vorticity maxima rotating around them. But we all know what is meant so unless there is any outright need to be hugely precise, who the f cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NAM looks awesome....any snow is good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 NAM looks awesome....any snow is good snow. Amen to that. I am leaving for San Antonio, TX on Tuesday, however I go to BOS on Monday. A nice going away present from Mother Nature I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Also, I do believe the QPF in eastern Mass on the 78 and 84 hour panels is an attempt at OES Yeah does appear to be some enhancement there. There's also some midlevel convergence and just general moist onshore flow ineracting with land/sea convergence. If you look at the h8 flow...you'd actually think n ma s nh vt might be a good spot to be...per the nam of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think there is a component of low-level convergence/isentropic lift. Yea, something superimposed over that generalized onshore polar wind. interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 NAM looks awesome....any snow is good snow. Yes folks this is me on Ray's PC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Nice work Mahk. On a break here on the site. Beautiful Winter day here. Lake frozen w/ice fishermen and snowmobiles running about. Confident this system pays dividends. WEll thanks Pete. I am trying to learn a bit and actually look at the maps as they come out. I've always resisted this. I dont' think my analysis matters in the least bit but it is fun to post it!!! lol. I do think though that with the NAM which is hi res you should pay particular attention to what it does in the first 48 hours. I'm really excited to see what the GFS sayeth. Haven't snowmobiled yet this year. Totally love it. Went last year in N NH in 4 ft of fresh powder and 2-3 in/hour rates. Scary at times but fun as hell. Enjoy the day! Carpe Diem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah does appear to be some enhancement there. There's also some midlevel convergence and just general moist onshore flow ineracting with land/sea convergence. If you look at the h8 flow...you'd actually think n ma s nh vt might be a good spot to be...per the nam of course OS' also mentioned this and I concur. That could almost be construed as Norlun like because of that - but I can't cross analyze anything from here so I'll leave that up to your capable hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i'm not a meteorologist but it reminds me of the new years system from last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yes folks this is me on Ray's PC How long have you two been dating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I would venture to say that the NAM is stronger with the intial impulse and also stronger with the SPV/PV over OH rather than the 6z GFS at hour 90 with the SPV/PV over Lake Erie. The stronger lead impulse leads to a stronger and further southward placed SPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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