Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Before we get scolded by mods or the fake mods...let's start a new thread and surprise them at our resourcefullness. Fake mod Bob..can you shut down the other one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Before we get scolded by mods or the fake mods...let's start a new thread and surprise them at our resourcefullness. Fake mod Bob..can you shut down the other one? Why aren't we using the thread dedicated to the weekend storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Why aren't we using the thread dedicated to the weekend storm? You can use whatever you'd like. Just nice to have an upcoming storm/pattern disco in one area rather than multiple threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Why aren't we using the thread dedicated to the weekend storm? Thank you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Before we get scolded by mods or the fake mods...let's start a new thread and surprise them at our resourcefullness. Fake mod Bob..can you shut down the other one? Good idea, but I am not activated right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Turtle sounds bullish... FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THIS MORNING/S MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX ACROSS NY STATE...POSSIBLY MOVING OFFSHORE JUST AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL OR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY TAKE SHAPE. MOST MODELS SIGNALING A STRONG STORM DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT...PASSING WELL SE OF NANTUCKET SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS LOW MAY ACTUALLY SLOW DOWN...IF THE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CAPTURES IT. 00Z ECMWF HAS COME A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN...THOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A SOMEWHAT STRONG OUTLIER. ONE THEME THAT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IS THAT THERE IS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH QPF WILL FALL...WHICH IS ALL IMPORTANT AS IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE SNOW THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME MIXTURE OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ALONG SECTIONS OF THE S COAST /FOR NOW/ ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO THE E COAST BY SATURDAY. DID NOT CARRY QUITE AS MUCH QPF AS PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT THIS ALONG WITH MANY OTHER DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY...AS WE HAVE SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS TO EXAMINE PRIOR TO FRIDAY. THE LAST SEVERAL EVENTS THIS WINTER HAVE SHOWN US THAT...IF THIS LOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...THE SYSTEM/S TRACK COULD SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR MORE CONSENSUS. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES. The 00z Euro and 06z GFS look really close to closing off just S of us. The problem I see right now is that lead piece of energy pushing the best baroclinic zone offshore a bit. It was the same piece of energy I was keying in on last night that was screwing me up with my analysis. If that piece can trend weaker, I think we can see this ULL close off S of here. If you roll the 06z GFS from like 66h to 108h you can see what I am talking about. http://www.meteo.psu...6z/avnloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The 00z Euro and 06z GFS look really close to closing off just S of us. The problem I see right now is that lead piece of energy pushing the best baroclinic zone offshore a bit. It was the same piece of energy I was keying in on last night that was screwing me up with my analysis. If that piece can trend weaker, I think we can see this ULL close off S of here. If you roll the 06z GFS from like 66h to 108h you can see what I am talking about. http://www.meteo.psu...6z/avnloop.html Weaker or stay east, Its screwing things up, We had talked about this the other day as we need that to be out of play completly to not effect the piece being ejected out of the northern stream........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Weaker or stay east, Its screwing things up, We had talked about this the other day as we need that to be out of play completly to not effect the piece being ejected out of the northern stream........ Although I favor a storm over no storm the idea that it is coming west with any type of certainty is funny. We've only had a storm or two this whole winter so there's no real pattern set and just as many "hits" went east. Let's hope it comes together with more certainty today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'll take the NAM..lol. Well certainly looks like something in the cards. The 00z euro ensembles look a lot better than the horrible 12z run. I think everyone has hatched out the possibilties, so no use reiterating. I still like the pattern going forward, but once again..I'll say that all types of storms are possible from miller b's to swfe that flip the coast briefly to rain at the end. With the trough to the west, these are all possibilities. As long as it's active..that's all I care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 not really impressed with the overnight modeling, as has been stated, a lot of interference mucking everything up. while still good qpf, i fear its slowly slip slip slippin. hopefully the models can reverse the trend somewhat in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'll take the NAM..lol. Well certainly looks like something in the cards. The 00z euro ensembles look a lot better than the horrible 12z run. I think everyone has hatched out the possibilties, so no use reiterating. I still like the pattern going forward, but once again..I'll say that all types of storms are possible from miller b's to swfe that flip the coast briefly to rain at the end. With the trough to the west, these are all possibilities. As long as it's active..that's all I care about. I think the 00z ec would be welcomed for at least half of the region. That set-up is intriguing. Almost gets me on board the major event train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think what we've seen and what makes sense..is that we're moving away from a big hit in NNE and this is more a CNE And SNE threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think the 00z ec would be welcomed for at least half of the region. That set-up is intriguing. Almost gets me on board the major event train. If you'd be so kind as to catch me up a bit, what did the 00 Euro (and ens) depict? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Although I favor a storm over no storm the idea that it is coming west with any type of certainty is funny. We've only had a storm or two this whole winter so there's no real pattern set and just as many "hits" went east. Let's hope it comes together with more certainty today. We shall see, Things should start play out some time in the next couple of days...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think what we've seen and what makes sense..is that we're moving away from a big hit in NNE and this is more a CNE And SNE threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm not making it up. Modelling has shifted that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm not making it up. Modelling has shifted that way I have not seen where any solution has been locked in as of yet with it still being all over the place......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Most ensembles still show the low tracking over the southern tip of Novi which to me is pretty far north, I just don't see where we have seen a definite trend one way or the other............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm not making it up. Modelling has shifted that way And it could just as easily shift northward again. Like always, this will come down to nowcasting. There's sure to be surprises as the event unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And it could just as easily shift northward again. Like always, this will come down to nowcasting. There's sure to be surprises as the event unfolds. There is one definite trend though that i see is that the mid Atlantic is probably out of the game unless we get the low to amplify and dig further south........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 And it could just as easily shift northward again. Like always, this will come down to nowcasting. There's sure to be surprises as the event unfolds. I know..But it was time to rile up our 2 Maine posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I know..But it was time to rile up our 2 Maine posters lol......good job, Doesn't take much after last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And it could just as easily shift northward again. Like always, this will come down to nowcasting. There's sure to be surprises as the event unfolds. "Nowcasting" is one of those words that doesn't actually mean anything, like "paternity test" and "liability." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I know..But it was time to rile up our 2 Maine posters The 06z GFS put decent snow out by Pete into NW CT and ENY... if I'm looking at it right. I know this is old news... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I know..But it was time to rile up our 2 Maine posters Don't rile me up right now -- I'm at work and trying to get sh@tt done. It takes a long time to type a post on my iTouch. Wait until tonight when I can fire back in a prompt fashion. As it stands now, I like where I am and also Mass/SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Good summary for those catching up from OKX... .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON ITS EXACT TRACK. 00Z GFS HAS THE LOW STRONGER AND LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF ADVERTISES A WEAKER LOW FURTHER NORTH. MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL SCENARIO OF THIS LOW WEAKENING FRIDAY WHILE AN OFFSHORE LOW DEVELOPS RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 70W AND EAST OF THE NC/VA BORDER REGION. GFS STRENGTHENS THE LOW MORE PROGRESSIVELY AND PUSHES IT QUICKLY EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...THEN NORTH TO WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE BENCHMARK BUT STRENGTHENS IT MORE SLOWLY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN PUSHES IT FARTHER OUT TO SEA. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE (AROUND 40 PERCENT) FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER EAST. ANY SNOW FRIDAY WOULD LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S...WHILE ANY SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WOULD COME FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW. QPF FROM THE 00Z RUNS IS RELATIVELY LIGHT...WITH THE GFS KEEPING ALL SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OFFSHORE EXCEPT FOR SOME WRAP-AROUND SNOW ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION OFFERS ONLY AROUND 1/4 OF AN INCH OF QPF...BUT MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE WITH THE OVERALL IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 To me the problem with the models is still the timing and handling of the SPV. The H5 low moves too far to the north for there to be a major storm center close to the coast. The GEFS means have come closer to the coast then yesterday but is still pretty far east. 00z EURO ensemble means are still more east as well as the 00z CMC, although recent trends have shown that this model is bring the H5 low further south. 00z EURO is better, however might be too progressive as well as the latest 6z GFS. 00z NOGAPS is more out to sea with the storm center. 00z GFS looked good, although has started its own trend east. 00z and 6z NAM continue to show timing issues as the SPV moves southward into the Great Lakes. Again the timing of shortwaves and the southern jet disturbance is really killing the positioning of the H5 low. It will take anothe 48 hours before we get into the better details of such a storm. This still has plenty of time to trend further south, I think the final track of the H5 low is from 37n:75w to 40n:70w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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