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Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

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it's best to operate under the assumption we'll get screwed until it's blatantly obvious otherwise

Looks to me like we are going to be building up some positive temp departures over the next few days....unless it gets really cold maybe this January won't be all that cold afterall....DCA hits 50 tomorrow?

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Looks to me like we are going to be building up some positive temp departures over the next few days....unless it gets really cold maybe this January won't be all that cold afterall....DCA hits 50 tomorrow?

i guess 50 is possible but clouds should hold us back enough... i dunno enough about long range to really make an educated guess other than liking persistence. but for some reason i feel like it's going to break by the final 3rd of the mo... guess we'll see. so far there's been some good cold and there has been ideas of more modeled but we're so far not seeing many direct blasts of arctic air.. .more modified stuff.

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i guess 50 is possible but clouds should hold us back enough... i dunno enough about long range to really make an educated guess other than liking persistence. but for some reason i feel like it's going to break by the final 3rd of the mo... guess we'll see. so far there's been some good cold and there has been ideas of more modeled but we're so far not seeing many direct blasts of arctic air.. .more modified stuff.

+10 at least at all three airports so tomorrow will add to that. I smell a rat with this cold

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It's a possibility... but it depends on how long the pv to the north east hangs on ... if it gets out of the way to fast, this storm can easily cut to t he lakes. :X

If I see highs in the 30s and dry, followed by an Apps runner, followed by highs in the 30s and dry, I'm going to go postal. Then I'm going to go change a diaper or two so I can get a good, up close look at some real ****.:gun_bandana:

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Well by hour 180 the block decides it will finally pull its wait and prevent it from cutting to the western lakes.. starts to push things east finally. Might force a secondary low somewhere along the east coast...

Probably too late for DC southward. But 8 or 9 days out.....still early

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Well by hour 180 the block decides it will finally pull its weight and prevent it from cutting to the western lakes.. starts to push things east finally. Might force a secondary low somewhere along the east coast...

Gonna post that.

Spectacular display of blocking. The position of the ridge on the west coast really wants to force a piece of the PV down into Hudson's bay and phase it. The blocking ridge over the bay stops it. GFS also to funnel a shortwave under the block from Northeast Quebec. The shortwave ridging stops it.

All this may not be enough to save DC though.

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