Jebman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sky getting real dark over Woodbridge - But I am calm as a cucumber. This 'storm' is nothing but a teaser anywhere SW of New England. I know where I live - In the infamous Snow Hole of DC - and I am not fooled. The snow is well north of my position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 correct but so is the Ohio Valley low, and its messing up the ability for the coastal to develop a good low level circulation and advect moisture inland. Until the energy transfers to the coast and phases the coastal is a dead wave. That should be happening now and I do not see signs of it yet. I am not saying NYC is not getting snow...just not sure about these 12" numbers they are throwing around. Might still happen in time but I am skeptical. For the coastal, the capture wasn't supposed to happen until around 0Z or so. While the OV low is deeper, the coastal is still in good shape and still deeper than any operational guidance. For folks in NYC, I would get worried if this thing doesn't start tanking shortly after 0Z. The OV surface low is over-achieving though--that is true. But the height field is mostly the same with the coastal capture still progged around the same time--in other words, nothing here is a surprise for the coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sky getting real dark over Woodbridge Sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 For the coastal, the capture wasn't supposed to happen until around 0Z or so. While the OV low is deeper, the coastal is still in good shape and still deeper than any operational guidance. For folks in NYC, I would get worried if this thing doesn't start tanking shortly after 0Z. The OV surface low is over-achieving though--that is true. But the height field is mostly the same with the coastal capture still progged around the same time--in other words, nothing here is a surprise for the coastal low. This. People are getting WAY ahead of themselves trying to call bust on PHL and NYC in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just like DEC 26th, all of the praying and hoping we did for the past 3 days did nothing but help SNE go from 10 inches to 20. Its ridiculous isn't it? I seriously can't wait for a pattern reload, then we can at least have some more hope. As for now, Ive set my expectations low and am hoping for at least an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Though I think it may be wise to pay attention to this radar http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php I'm probably wrong - I am 100% certain my backyard will see flurries from this by 7pm, just flurries, no accums, but it just may be a good idea to keep an eye on that radar if you live in N VA - Just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Quick dusting in Kingsville, apparently. Heading back to verify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sky getting real dark over Woodbridge - But I am calm as a cucumber. This 'storm' is nothing but a teaser anywhere SW of New England. I know where I live - In the infamous Snow Hole of DC - and I am not fooled. The snow is well north of my position It is called nighttime, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like a band is trying to get going along I81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 you might want to read Mount Holly's AFD...if i had any real interest id post it, but i dont lol. got other things going on tonight. point is yeah we are a miss in MD/DE other than a crusty inch or so, but that coastal will get going just north of here, and places from central NJ north and east will likely still do very well. IMO Mount Holly, which is the forecast office for my area, is one of the best. they don't jump ship prematurely, and they are conservative when they need to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The BUFKIT just dropped its projection from 6" for DCA to 1.5" - and that's with some pretty ridiculous ratios. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_namm/nam_kdca.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Steady light snow big flakes falling 8 miles north of Harford County, MD. and 9 miles east of I-83. Maybe I will get my inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's like hooking up with a fat chick. Sure it's fun for a few days... DAYS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Though I think it may be wise to pay attention to this radar http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php I'm probably wrong - I am 100% certain my backyard will see flurries from this by 7pm, just flurries, no accums, but it just may be a good idea to keep an eye on that radar if you live in N VA - Just in case Looks like a band of snow is developing over the baltimore area and moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Does anyone have access to WeatherTap radars? Can you post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just noticed my local forecast is now calling for sleet and freezing rainfall. K - I'll pass. I don't need freezing rain. PA can have all the moisture - I'll take partly cloudy and 50 degrees. FRZRA is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just noticed my local forecast is now calling for sleet and freezing rainfall. K - I'll pass. I don't need freezing rain. PA can have all the moisture - I'll take partly cloudy and 50 degrees. FRZRA is terrible. What is FRZRA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What is FRZRA? I believe he has also referred to sleet as hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What is FRZRA? Freezing rain. Also - In response to another poster - Sleet is not the same as hail. Sleet is rain that falls thru a layer of very cold air and freezes into ice pellets. Hail forms in thunderstorms. Freezing rain is terrible to drive in - especially with the cold ground. 2m temps are running in the upper 20s. I'd rather let PA take all the snow and I'll enjoy cloudy skies with NO freezing rain. Sleet is miserable too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 someone start a new thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 this storm sucked so did our winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 this storm sucked so did our winter 2 year avg. ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 2 year avg. ftw? about 55.5 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 about 55.5 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2011 Author Share Posted March 11, 2011 Jan 27--Chester, va FTL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 11, 2011 Share Posted March 11, 2011 Jan 27--Chester, va FTL? Mostly Cloudy with a chance of flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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