40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 GFS ensembles still look nice...990mb over the BM at 132h after redeveloping the lakes low E of ACY...not as amped up as that 982 mean at 18z, but that was pretty rare to see an ensemble mean do that. This is a little more in line. I'll take that.....went without saying that the ens mean would not stay that deep......I'll take 990mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'll take that.....went without saying that the ens mean would not stay that deep......I'll take 990mb. If you guarantee me 6-12 weekly, I'll take it and run and give up the 1 in 20 chance of a 2-3 footer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I like how we're looking. Details can be worked out. We will have the cold, all you can ask for is a reasonably juicy qpf system. Verbatim GFS is a pretty decent snowstorm.....6-12 for many. I'd take 6-12" and run right now. While this system certainly has a ton of potential to be larger, it could easily crap out on us for a number of reasons. Tonight's run essentially nailed BOS again for jackpot...maybe south shore. As I type, GGEM looks decent too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 So...do you think the op run made some changes in the far long range? from 18Z? That's why it's almost a joke even looking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 If you guarantee me 6-12 weekly, I'll take it and run and give up the 1 in 20 chance of a 2-3 footer. I'd agree if we have sustained cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'd agree if we have sustained cold. Yes without sustained cold you have alot of mess. But to achieve the weekly storm, you'd almost have to have sustained cold. Nice January appears to unfold....at least we'll have our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Yes without sustained cold you have alot of mess. But to achieve the weekly storm, you'd almost have to have sustained cold. Nice January appears to unfold....at least we'll have our chances. What it all comes down to is that I want a deep, deep snowpack and that is difficult to realize given a parade of pedestrain events, due to the retention issues faced on the cp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 00z NOGAPS is the model carrying the HECS torch in tonight's suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 00z NOGAPS is the model carrying the HECS torch in tonight's suite. CMC dumps alot of snow on some of us. Occludes the low beyond 132 as it rots over us....unlikely solution but the signal for a good event is there. NGP has uncharacteristically been all over this today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 CMC dumps alot of snow on some of us. Occludes the low beyond 132 as it rots over us....unlikely solution but the signal for a good event is there. NGP has uncharacteristically been all over this today. Every model has had significant snow thus far tonight. Pending Ukie/Euro. Regardless of any verbatim solutions, I love the trend of keeping that PV diving south of us tonight at 00z. With each run we can keep that idea alive, the closer we are to gaining confidence on a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 NOGAPS and GGEM more or less bury eastern SNE and most of ME. GFS is no slouch either. Let's see where this goes this week.... MEX snow numbers (admittedly 6 days out) are generally 8+ for inland areas and 6+ BOS-BED-MQE, 4+ PYM-EWB, less east of the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'd give $500 to lock the 18z DGEX in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'd give $500 to lock the 18z DGEX in. Wow....a record breaking system......maybe some taint followed by a frigid long lasting copious qpf producing blizzard. Let's get a pool going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Every model has had significant snow thus far tonight. Pending Ukie/Euro. Regardless of any verbatim solutions, I love the trend of keeping that PV diving south of us tonight at 00z. With each run we can keep that idea alive, the closer we are to gaining confidence on a decent event. This is what I notice above all else as well. Any whining about relatively low QPF is silly IMO. This is not a hecs pattern or synoptic setup. But when I see sub 500dms at h5 I think bombing SLP and unexpectedly intense, albeit localized, snowfall rates. I consider modeled QPF to be very broad brush anyway. SNE clearly looks to be the place to be for this upcoming threat. Even so, several individual members find various ways to miss. If anyone from PHL to BOS can sneak 6" out of this they should take it and be happy with a fine start to the winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Well I'm not gonna stay up another hour for the Euro...but I don't think its solution will be all that important anyway at this juncture. Hopefully it shows the PV near or south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 This is what I notice above all else as well. Any whining about relatively low QPF is silly IMO. This is not a hecs pattern or synoptic setup. But when I see sub 500dms at h5 I think bombing SLP and unexpectedly intense, albeit localized, snowfall rates. I consider modeled QPF to be very broad brush anyway. SNE clearly looks to be the place to be for this upcoming threat. Even so, several individual members find various ways to miss. If anyone from PHL to BOS can sneak 6" out of this they should take it and be happy with a fine start to the winter season. Not sure what you mean by that...chances are that it will not be of that magnitude, but there is clearly large potential whenever that deep of an H5 low passes out underneath LI. I don't think there exists a pattern in which a HECS is the favored outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 People post about HECS like they're common occurences. The H stands for "Historic" by the way. That should be a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 EURO is another ME special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 EURO is another ME special. 2011 already has some swagger. Snowy times on the doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 This late week storm was added into the weather train as a boxcar for Northern Vermont,...the only ones in all of North America to have been screwed thus far by the snow gods. So please step away from the keyboard and resume your non-snow related activities. This storm is for us dammit. Leave it alone as any wishcasting will = bad juju. I know this is old 12z info but I dont care, it's all we have. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A 970MB LOW NEAR THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AT 00Z SATURDAY. UKMET HAS A 980MB LOW NEAR BLOCK IS. AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SFC LOW...BUT TROWAL AIRSTREAM BRINGS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL WAA FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS VT. ECMWF IS ALSO SLOWER TO MOVE SYSTEM OUT WITH SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Which day? For D6ish. The euro develops it south, but inflow never really gets going until it reaches Maine. Still has a nice look and room for improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Every overnight model run gives all of SNE 6-12. Some more than that. With the exception of 1 person..I think everyone is going to be pleased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Every overnight model run gives all of SNE 6-12. Some more than that. With the exception of 1 person..I think everyone is going to be pleased Euro is probably an advisory deal except for cstl NH and Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Euro is probably an advisory deal except for cstl NH and Maine. Should be much more qpf on the Euro than it has based on track and strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Euro is probably an advisory deal except for cstl NH and Maine. Hmmmmmm--I think I can take a stab at the right correction vector. Torch continues: 38.2/36. New cat continues to torture me. Both FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Should be much more qpf on the Euro than it has based on track and strength It seems reasonable as the best inflow is up in those locations. I could see it beef up a little in ne mass. Hopefully it's more like the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 It seems reasonable as the best inflow is up in those locations. I could see it beef up a little in ne mass. Hopefully it's more like the gfs. Typical Euro low qpf at this range What did the Euro ensembles show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'd give $500 to lock the 18z DGEX in. I'll take the 6z DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Typical Euro low qpf at this range What did the Euro ensembles show? They seemed a little better looking than the op. The op run has a stupid low that runs out over the Gulf stream waters and way out to sea. I think this robs some of the energy for the developing low that takes place near the benchmark. It's tough to say if that will happen or not. The ensembles hint at this, but in a much weaker form. It could be right, but it also could be the ensembles not having the best resolution. Something like the 06z gfs ensembles would be excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 They seemed a little better looking than the op. The op run has a stupid low that runs out over the Gulf stream waters and way out to sea. I think this robs some of the energy for the developing low that takes place near the benchmark. It's tough to say if that will happen or not. The ensembles hint at this, but in a much weaker form. It could be right, but it also could be the ensembles not having the best resolution. Something like the 06z gfs ensembles would be excellent. Sounds like almost the exact same thing the Euro did with the HECS last weekend..Had it way too far east with too much energy out front..then corrected well west . Seems to be it's big error pattern this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.