mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 6z GFS congrats SNE and in particular GC. what is GC? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What do you mean? This system is not pretty--the inv trough scenario is so precarious and I hate that. Does that mean it won't happen and someone gets hit with it pretty good? Does it mean that this system won't morph into a more classic Miller B? No. Right now, though, I find the setup ugly. I am confident it's going to deliver snow, but in an ugly way. That's why I hate it. 1. Current model depictions are not far off from something very decent. 2. This is the time period when models have often had a blind spot for larger systems. (see last storm, TT's posts) 3. Even as currently modeled an extended period of accumulating snow is becoming more and more likely. 4. Most recent GFS gives us a nice little sweet spot. 5. Tendency recently has been for storms to trend stronger/closer to the coast in the last 48-72 hrs (see Box's most recent AFD) 6. There is no 'ugly' way to have snow delivered. 7. Even the worst case scenario of an extended period of light accumulating snow will still be pleasant. I'll stop there but could go on and on. The idea of 'hating' any mechanism that triggers a snowfall, any snowfall, is bizarre to me. I love that we are able to track a potential storm, in what ever form, as opposed to, as Ginx so aptly put, tracking a possible pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 what is GC? thanks God's Country = Berkshires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Albany's take: THE MOST INCONSISTENT MODEL WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE THE ECMWF. YESTERDAY MORNINGS MODEL RUN HAD A SUB-970 HPA LOW OFF THE NJ COAST AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS MORNINGS RUN HAS A MUCH WEAKER STORM WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...EVEN THOUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS TURNING NEGATIVELY TILTED. WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS/GEFS MEAN/SREF MEAN AND CAN GGEM bitchslapped the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Turtle sounds bullish... FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THIS MORNING/S MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX ACROSS NY STATE...POSSIBLY MOVING OFFSHORE JUST AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL OR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY TAKE SHAPE. MOST MODELS SIGNALING A STRONG STORM DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT...PASSING WELL SE OF NANTUCKET SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS LOW MAY ACTUALLY SLOW DOWN...IF THE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CAPTURES IT. 00Z ECMWF HAS COME A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN...THOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A SOMEWHAT STRONG OUTLIER. ONE THEME THAT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IS THAT THERE IS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH QPF WILL FALL...WHICH IS ALL IMPORTANT AS IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE SNOW THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME MIXTURE OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ALONG SECTIONS OF THE S COAST /FOR NOW/ ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO THE E COAST BY SATURDAY. DID NOT CARRY QUITE AS MUCH QPF AS PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT THIS ALONG WITH MANY OTHER DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY...AS WE HAVE SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS TO EXAMINE PRIOR TO FRIDAY. THE LAST SEVERAL EVENTS THIS WINTER HAVE SHOWN US THAT...IF THIS LOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...THE SYSTEM/S TRACK COULD SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR MORE CONSENSUS. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What do you mean? This system is not pretty--the inv trough scenario is so precarious and I hate that. Does that mean it won't happen and someone gets hit with it pretty good? Does it mean that this system won't morph into a more classic Miller B? No. Right now, though, I find the setup ugly. I am confident it's going to deliver snow, but in an ugly way. That's why I hate it. Ray? that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 1. Current model depictions are not far off from something very decent. 2. This is the time period when models have often had a blind spot for larger systems. (see last storm, TT's posts) 3. Even as currently modeled an extended period of accumulating snow is becoming more and more likely. 4. Most recent GFS gives us a nice little sweet spot. 5. Tendency recently has been for storms to trend stronger/closer to the coast in the last 48-72 hrs (see Box's most recent AFD) 6. There is no 'ugly' way to have snow delivered. 7. Even the worst case scenario of an extended period of light accumulating snow will still be pleasant. I'll stop there but could go on and on. The idea of 'hating' any mechanism that triggers a snowfall, any snowfall, is bizarre to me. I love that we are able to track a potential storm, in what ever form, as opposed to, as Ginx so aptly put, tracking a possible pattern change. I agree with everything you said except #6, and I don't think I've said anything different than you here. The end result of any snow is good. But the delivery can in fact be very ugly. I put a norlun/inv trof and the accomapnying difficulty in being confident with such a forecast and the very localized nature of their impact (especially this far out) ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I agree with everything you said except #6, and I don't think I've said anything different than you here. The end result of any snow is good. But the delivery can in fact be very ugly. I put a norlun/inv trof and the accomapnying difficulty in being confident with such a forecast and the very localized nature of their impact (especially this far out) ugly. There is no gaurantee that this is going to be a small norlun event and nothing else.. infact that inverted trough can be a signal for something much much better, jan '05 a good example. still 3-4 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 There is no gaurantee that this is going to be a small norlun event and nothing else.. infact that inverted trough can be a signal for something much much better, jan '05 a good example. still 3-4 days away Chalk another poster into the bullish category.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Turtle sounds bullish... FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THIS MORNING/S MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX ACROSS NY STATE...POSSIBLY MOVING OFFSHORE JUST AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL OR OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY TAKE SHAPE. MOST MODELS SIGNALING A STRONG STORM DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT...PASSING WELL SE OF NANTUCKET SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS LOW MAY ACTUALLY SLOW DOWN...IF THE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CAPTURES IT. 00Z ECMWF HAS COME A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN...THOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A SOMEWHAT STRONG OUTLIER. ONE THEME THAT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IS THAT THERE IS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH QPF WILL FALL...WHICH IS ALL IMPORTANT AS IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE SNOW THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME MIXTURE OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ALONG SECTIONS OF THE S COAST /FOR NOW/ ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO THE E COAST BY SATURDAY. DID NOT CARRY QUITE AS MUCH QPF AS PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT THIS ALONG WITH MANY OTHER DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY...AS WE HAVE SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS TO EXAMINE PRIOR TO FRIDAY. THE LAST SEVERAL EVENTS THIS WINTER HAVE SHOWN US THAT...IF THIS LOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...THE SYSTEM/S TRACK COULD SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR MORE CONSENSUS. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES. The 00z Euro and 06z GFS look really close to closing off just S of us. The problem I see right now is that lead piece of energy pushing the best baroclinic zone offshore a bit. It was the same piece of energy I was keying in on last night that was screwing me up with my analysis. If that piece can trend weaker, I think we can see this ULL close off S of here. If you roll the 06z GFS from like 66h to 108h you can see what I am talking about. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_6z/avnloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Chalk another poster into the bullish category.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The 00z Euro and 06z GFS look really close to closing off just S of us. The problem I see right now is that lead piece of energy pushing the best baroclinic zone offshore a bit. It was the same piece of energy I was keying in on last night that was screwing me up with my analysis. If that piece can trend weaker, I think we can see this ULL close off S of here. If you roll the 06z GFS from like 66h to 108h you can see what I am talking about. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_6z/avnloop.html I would also like to see the models trend away from the trough at some point as well, Going to need to differnt camps for that to work, One with the ULL low further north to hit a swath in the northern areas with more snow or south to hit someone in the southern area, Those areas look to be where the enhanced snows will fall with lt/mod on either side and a screwzone outside of those areas......... That lead piece of energy that exits the carolinas is also coming into play as its seems to be further NW which is wreaking havoc, Yesterday earlier, That vort was well ENE and got out of the way for a better development of a secondary closer to the coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Might as well move on over to a new disco thread since this one is pretty long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It's not off the table. i think some of the weird ways of getting there might be off the table but the idea of a major event for parts of the area are definitely still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Guys, found some awesome Blizzard of 78 photos cleaning out my mother's old stuff! These pictures are looking east down Story Street in Southie the day after the Blizzard My grandmother My Mother's dog rolling around in the street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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