2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[MN Transplant]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

NAMNest 5H progression would be a kick in the nuts for anyone west of the Bay. Takes forever to close off, so its the eastern Delmarva and points north that get into anything appreciable and just some modest stuff away from there. Shore would get buried. Thermals are meh too within the lower PBL. I'm more worried about that than anything else tbh. 

The Nest has half the precipitation as the parent through 60 hours.  On some areas of the DelMarVa it is 1/3.  My assumption is that nothing that falls before 21z will accumulate, and then we get the trough action.

[bncho]

48hr HRRR 

[WxMan1]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Agreed, very little accumulation.

Hoping for the timing to be right. Ripping band will accumulate and bring down temps, even in the afternoon. Thus the widely used term "column cooling" because the entire sub-cloud column cools with the heavier rates. 

But again from a timing perspective, it would be great if that inverted trough/heavier rates would hold off until 20-22Z when we lose any solar effect. To play it safe IMBY (east of I95) I don't expect any accumulating snow until after 20Z. But when you look at the NAM, it snows all night. That's what we need!

 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

The Nest has half the precipitation as the parent through 60 hours.  On some areas of the DelMarVa it is 1/3.  My assumption is that nothing that falls before 21z will accumulate, and then we get the trough action.

Agreed for inside the beltway and nearby areas. I think we'll see some light accums in elevations above 500' before the later fun after dark. That NAMNest run was almost legendary but it legit WOULD NOT CLOSE OFF until well to our southeast. Was so annoying, so hopefully that was a hiccup. It had a ton of potential. What was interesting is regardless of that, the eastern shore got hammered. I think DE might be a great position for this one. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The Nest has half the precipitation as the parent through 60 hours.  On some areas of the DelMarVa it is 1/3.  My assumption is that nothing that falls before 21z will accumulate, and then we get the trough action.

3k has been too dry lately and we know 12k has a wet bias

[Amped]

4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Nam is trending towards yesterday’s GFS runs. One more improvement at h5 and it’s gonna have 18-24 over I-95

In our region. Gfs didn't have as much snow for Northern Pa, NYC, and New England as the NAM does now.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

I think this is the likely outcome. Thanks for posting kuchera!


.

More to come

[LeesburgWx]

Let’s just allow this baby to trend right up until game time. We just need really 50 miles

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

More to come

And everybody is at or below freezing.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Let’s just allow this baby to trend right up until game time. We just need really 50 miles

50 miles west is all we need.

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The Nest has half the precipitation as the parent through 60 hours.  On some areas of the DelMarVa it is 1/3.  My assumption is that nothing that falls before 21z will accumulate, and then we get the trough action.

 

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Agreed for inside the beltway and nearby areas. I think we'll see some light accums in elevations above 500' before the later fun after dark. That NAMNest run was almost legendary but it legit WOULD NOT CLOSE OFF until well to our southeast. Was so annoying, so hopefully that was a hiccup. It had a ton of potential. What was interesting is regardless of that, the eastern shore got hammered. I think DE might be a great position for this one. 

Thank you both! 

[EHoffman]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

50 miles west is all we need.

It's legitimately ridiculously close to being an all-time HECS for 95.  We have time to get those 50 miles.

[rjvanals]

This is a tough forecast especially for the western suburbs of DC which may be to warm for the coastal snow and may be to far west for much snow from the IVT. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, rjvanals said:

This is a tough forecast especially for the western suburbs of DC which may be to warm for the coastal snow and may be to far west for much snow from the IVT. 

Tough forecast for all of dc area, I could see this totally busting and us getting an inch of slop or if this thing trends up til game time we could get buried.  Really tough call with the models still adjusting. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

It's legitimately ridiculously close to being an all-time HECS for 95.  We have time to get those 50 miles.

Idk, there's just something about Niñas and coastal bombs that make it very tough to get decent accumulations west of the Bay. Obviously, I  want more, but in light of history, I'm more than a bit surprised to see it push as far west as the models are currently showing. Any more is going to be a real fluke.

[SnowGolfBro]

Honestly, I am glad we aren’t in the bullseye right now. We being A 50 mile radius around DC. Starting to get a feeling…

[Amped]

Icon looks more amped too.

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Idk, there's just something about Niñas and coastal bombs that make it very tough to get decent accumulations west of the Bay. Obviously, I  want more, but in light of history, I'm more than a bit surprised to see it push as far west as the models are currently showing. Any more is going to be a real fluke.

Nothing scientific on this opinion but maybe because it's later in the season it's pulling more west. Weakening Nina helping our cause?

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Idk, there's just something about Niñas and coastal bombs that make it very tough to get decent accumulations west of the Bay. Obviously, I  want more, but in light of history, I'm more than a bit surprised to see it push as far west as the models are currently showing. Any more is going to be a real fluke.

It is not a fluke... I said it was going to happen so it will.

[WxUSAF]

I like rgem at 36hrs. Better surface and H5.

[osfan24]

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean historically...when has I-95 got 10" and the eastern shore more than double? Lol

Agreed. Maybe someone else has an example. I could see it going full Niña with a tight, very high accumulation right along the beaches and virtually nothing back west of the bay. Seen that plenty of times. Cannot recall getting significant accumulation while Eastern Shore gets a HECS.

[rjvanals]

ICON is better

[WEATHER53]

23 minutes ago, bncho said:

48hr HRRR 

Even the 534 line is south of us so cold air drag down will be very real 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Even the 534 line is south of us so cold air drag down will be very real 

Yes thermals do appears better on the HRRR. 

[rjvanals]

RGEM again gives a narrow area a big snow from the IVT and is pretty meager outside that band 

[fujiwara79]

12 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Idk, there's just something about Niñas and coastal bombs that make it very tough to get decent accumulations west of the Bay. Obviously, I  want more, but in light of history, I'm more than a bit surprised to see it push as far west as the models are currently showing. Any more is going to be a real fluke.

https://www.facebook.com/weatherhistory/posts/january-25th-2000an-unexpected-noreaster-hit-north-carolina-virginia-and-the-mid/1155550869911051/

[WxUSAF]

Just now, rjvanals said:

RGEM again gives a narrow area a big snow from the IVT and is pretty meager outside that band 

It really loves this narrow death band. Better for the coast and areas to our northeast. 

[LP08]

The initial coastal precip as its starting to strengthen on basically all foreign models is very different vs the USA. No major bands rotate and almost all of them require the inverted Trof to hit.  Just snizzle on most then hope and pray

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

The initial coastal precip as its starting to strengthen on basically all foreign models is very different vs the USA. No major bands rotate and almost all of them require the inverted Trof to hit.  Just snizzle on most then hope and pray

Seems funny. Icon and rgem were again better up top at h5 too. Former more so than the later equated a bit at the sfc

[MN Transplant]

ICON is 0.4-0.5" QPF after 00z Monday from Frederick/Loudoun/Fairfax and east.