February 22-23 Storm Thread/OBS

[MGorse]

54 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

That is why I don't see an issue with and I expect a Winter Storm Watch to go up this afternoon. Better to be safe than sorry. Watch can always be downgraded. Even if you just put it in generic terms of "Potential for 6+ inches of snow" and adjust from there accordingly 

Just to clarify, Watches are not downgraded. They are upgraded or canceled. 

[MJO812]

Just now, The Iceman said:

GFS is like 30 hours of snow for 95...

 

 

This should be the final totals

 

 

 

 

Kuchera has more

[Newman]

14 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

@Newman can you give us a GFS PBP?  Really appreciate all your analysis lately!

Ha sorry, busy at work  Double tasking PA and FL weather today

[MickeyTim6533]

south and weaker. still nice

[ChescoWx]

[JTA66]

Seriously, are we doing this?? Asking for a friend.

[Newman]

GFS is gonna score it's biggest coup ever here. I mean I just don't see how it doesn't at this point.

12z GFS: The trough is actually more amplified so the storm initially develops a touch further south. It tucks, but the occlusion process takes it a smidge further east this run which is why parts of the Lehigh Valley get lower totals overall (still 8-12"). The initial jet enhanced precip is also less expansive and has been trending less on the GFS, which also keeps totals lower further NW. Nitpicking here though, mostly just noise. Whichever areas get the most snow is dependent on the very fine scale phasing that occurs that we won't know for another day.

[MickeyTim6533]

MA Forum starting to worry about the "more coastal" track

[The Iceman]

Just now, JTA66 said:

Seriously, are we doing this?? Asking for a friend.

America vs Euro's(and Canada) at the moment...I know who I'm rooting for. USA! USA! USA! 

 

CMC is still a grazing...

[The Iceman]

2 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

MA Forum starting to worry about the "more coastal" track

Good thing we aren't in the MA dude, but perhaps you should just stay there.

[Kevin Reilly]

14 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

I don’t mean to be a wennie but we know this isn’t happening.  I’m not buying it still I’ll go down with the ship.  Even if everything did come together warmer grounds / 50 degrees tomorrow totals of 20-30” probably are more like 12-16” but still wow.  I’m very very interested to see how this unfolds and it’s been a very enjoyable ride of learning these model outputs with this particular set up. 

[zenmsav6810]

3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I don’t mean to be a wennie but we know this isn’t happening.  I’m not buying it still I’ll go down with the ship.  Even if everything did come together warmer grounds / 50 degrees tomorrow totals of 20-30” probably are more like 12-16” but still wow.  I’m very very interested to see how this unfolds and it’s been a very enjoyable ride of learning these model outputs with this particular set up. 

10 Mile shift NW obliterates the delaware valley...just sayin'

[ChescoWx]

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I don’t mean to be a wennie but we know this isn’t happening.  I’m not buying it still I’ll go down with the ship.  Even if everything did come together warmer grounds / 50 degrees tomorrow totals of 20-30” probably are more like 12-16” but still wow.  I’m very very interested to see how this unfolds and it’s been a very enjoyable ride of learning these model outputs with this particular set up. 

Hey Kevin don't get fooled with that 50 degree stuff....I have seen fast accumulating snow after a high of 62 degrees...that said I am not buying in till I see a little Euro agreement....

[Duca892]

GFS Clocking in YET AGAIN with 12in+ SEPA wide 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Insane for a mean on gefs

[Newman]

GEFS gonna be unchanged mostly for Philly SE, but the orientation of the more SW to NE precip shield is being reflected across the Lehigh Valley where the gradient is tighter. Probably just noise, I guess we'll see. MSLP low placements actually ticked west quite a bit on the GEFS at 12z. And I'm referring to MEAN Total QPF, so honestly there may have just been a rogue member that rained to I-95 that got removed this run 

[Duca892]

EURO.... the EURO looms large and I need it damn it... NAM/GFS both give 8-12+ for the entirety of SEPA... EURO... please... 

[anthonyweather]

I don’t mean to be a wennie but we know this isn’t happening.  I’m not buying it still I’ll go down with the ship.  Even if everything did come together warmer grounds / 50 degrees tomorrow totals of 20-30” probably are more like 12-16” but still wow.  I’m very very interested to see how this unfolds and it’s been a very enjoyable ride of learning these model outputs with this particular set up. 

20-30” would happen, those are insane rates.


.

[Newman]

Ukie with a massive shift west, gets 6-8" to Philly, 12-16" locally along the Jersey coast. 2-5" back to the Lehigh Valley

[The Iceman]

Just now, Newman said:

Ukie with a massive shift west, gets 6-8" to Philly, 12-16" locally along the Jersey coast. 2-5" back to the Lehigh Valley

That's a massive shift, the UKIE was the furthest east of all guidance previously IRC

[JTA66]

10 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Hey Kevin don't get fooled with that 50 degree stuff....I have seen fast accumulating snow after a high of 62 degrees...that said I am not buying in till I see a little Euro agreement....

A beautiful day before the '93 Super Storm, sunny w/temps in the 50's. And no, I'm not expecting a repeat this weekend.

As Paul said, I think we'll all remain a bit skeptical until and unless we see the Euro move toward the GFS.

[BigDub]

Are there any similarities to the 93 storm? Im not saying the B word, but can we get 10-12 widespread wind-driven snow?

Sent from my SM-A146U using Tapatalk

[Ralph Wiggum]

27 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

America vs Euro's(and Canada) at the moment...I know who I'm rooting for. USA! USA! USA! 

 

CMC is still a grazing...

USA vs Slovakia hockey today BTW. USA USA USA!!!

[wkd]

GEM also moved west.

[coastal front]

I’m having heart palpitations waiting for the aifs and euro lol

[LVblizzard]

I’m not looking forward to making a first call on my page later today. GFS has over a foot, CMC/UKMET have just a couple inches, and who knows what the Euro will show. At this point I’m confident heavy snow makes it to the Delaware River…but how far will it get into PA?

[MickeyTim6533]

7 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

I’m not looking forward to making a first call on my page later today. GFS has over a foot, CMC/UKMET have just a couple inches, and who knows what the Euro will show. At this point I’m confident heavy snow makes it to the Delaware River…but how far will it get into PA?

heavy snow philly and east, moderate west of philly

[ChescoWx]

7 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

I’m not looking forward to making a first call on my page later today. GFS has over a foot, CMC/UKMET have just a couple inches, and who knows what the Euro will show. At this point I’m confident heavy snow makes it to the Delaware River…but how far will it get into PA?

It is why I leave all forecast calls on my page to the professionals! My bad calls would haunt me!!

[MickeyTim6533]

Adam Joseph, says "a swing and a mss" lol