Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Rjay]

It's tiring reading the back and forth about starting a thread vs not starting a thread.  Who cares.  There's no such thing as a jinx and even though the models have been performing poorly at this range this year, it's fine to discuss a storm in a dedicated thread.  Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't but if it doesn't it's not bc a thread was started.  The pattern doesn't look ideal for a big storm but who knows! Enjoy all the ups and downs of tracking a possible event.  This forum is supposed to be fun. Enjoy the weather and may the odds be ever in your favor. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

oh man it's not coming lol

[IrishRob17]

26 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

oh man it's not coming lol

Oh stop. All the silly posts about who/when/if a thread should be made can just stop now and I guess some will get some sleep tonight as a result. Unless they are pulling all nighters for models runs. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

18 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Oh stop. All the silly posts about who/when/if a thread  should be made can just stop now and I guess some will get some sleep tonight as a result. Unless they are pulling all nighters for models runs. 

man that euro ai run got me thinking, there's a really good possibility we're going to get clobbered! 

[Freezing Drizzle]

One purpose of this thread is to de-clutter the general February thread.

[IrishRob17]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

man that euro ai run got me thinking, there's a really good possibility we're going to get clobbered! 

Maybe. Maybe not. Whether this thread was created or not has zero impact on that. As @Freezing Drizzle said though, this helps to clean up the main Feb thread a bit. 

[nycsnow]

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

One purpose of this thread is to de-clutter the general February thread.

Bingo

[nycsnow]

AIgfs has been locked in on a warmer coastal hugger 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

AIgfs has been locked in on a warmer coastal hugger 

It was flatter on this run

[MJO812]

Gfs

[SACRUS]

2/17 00z GFS

 

[nycsnow]

[SACRUS]

00z gfs

 

 

[SACRUS]

00z Summary

2/22 - 2/23-24

ICON:  0.00 QPF
GFS AI : 1.5 - 1.7 QPF - rain
GFS:  1.1 - 1.8 QPF -  >10 inches snow 
GGEM: 1.2 - 1.9 QPF - >11 inches snow
UKMET: 1.0 - 1.9 QPF - >11 inches snow
 

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

00z Summary

2/22 - 2/23-24

ICON:  0.00 QPF
GFS AI : 1.5 - 1.7 QPF - rain
GFS:  1.1 - 1.8 QPF -  >10 inches snow 
 

AIGFS gets cold pretty quick though, but I don’t have precip type maps was it any snow?

[nycsnow]

FWIW cmc looks completely different at 500 let’s see if it matters 

[Nibor]

18 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

AIGFS gets cold pretty quick though, but I don’t have precip type maps was it any snow?

1.5" frozen qpf for NYC

[nycsnow]

Little different 

[SACRUS]

2/17 00z GGEM:

[SACRUS]

 

 

[SACRUS]

[nycsnow]

Wow huge hit on Canadian 

[SACRUS]

GGEM total QPF

[nycsnow]

Ukie

[nycsnow]

[nycsnow]

[nycsnow]

Ukie is 1-2 feet Philly to Boston 

[SACRUS]

UK rain to hvy snow

 

[SACRUS]

UKMT

Total QPF