Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[hooralph]

10 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

18Z NAM looks a lot like much of  WeatherGeek2025's weather porn.

It looks like it was run on a LLM trained on the KU books and this forum.

[MJO812]

Feels great to track a monster after several years. This would be an A winter if we get this biggie.

[EasternLI]

OMG NAM is insane 

[Zeus]

Just now, EasternLI said:

OMG NAM is insane 

 

 

[Snowpsycho]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Feels great to track a monster after several years. This would be an A winter if we get this biggie.

This storm is the equivalent of acing the final to get an A. Winter was about a B but A is within reach.

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

17 minutes ago, RockawayRowdies said:

Weather gurus..
The Mrs has work Sunday night starting 10:30 PM in Pompton Plains NJ area. When is this expected to start? How 

she needs to take the day off or show up to work 7-8 hours earlier!

[TriPol]

16 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

About 40-48 hrs away from this beginning and the gfs and nam are porn worthy! What could go wrong?

Never ask that.

[nycwinter]

lee goldberg calling for a measured approach for 4-8 for the city 8-12 for eastern long island.

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

lee goldberg calling for a measured approach for 4-8 for the city 8-12 for eastern long island.

Yeah i expect him/them to double that tonight or definitely by tomorrow if things continue to trend in the right direction.

[MJO812]

Icon more phased

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

lee goldberg calling for a measured approach for 4-8 for the city 8-12 for eastern long island.

I can honestly say, nobody here cares about what a TV met has to say. He can't go out and start talking about feet of snow at this range. Ever since they got burned so badly with January 2015, just about every public met has taken a very conservative approach until the very last minute. 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

lee goldberg calling for a measured approach for 4-8 for the city 8-12 for eastern long island.

wins going 3-6, 6-12....

[njwx7]

It's settled. Locking in the 18z NAM at 66 hours. Let's do this.

[Snowman92]

Closer to midnight we will have the big picture of track and qpf with little adjustments being made tomorrow for exact snow amounts and small 25mile shifts 

[Santa Claus]

no reason to hurry things, bump the totals Saturday if model consensus continues coalescing 

this was a difficult pregnancy and when the GFS is the one delivering the baby you don’t rush it out of the NICU

[nycwinter]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

wins going 3-6, 6-12....

wins has always been bad with accuweather..forecasts..

[SnoSki14]

22 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

About 40-48 hrs away from this beginning and the gfs and nam are porn worthy! What could go wrong?

I know we always worry about could go wrong but what if the storm is still trending towards a bullseye. 

[Mr. T.]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I can honestly say, nobody here cares about what a TV met has to say. He can't go out and start talking about feet of snow at this range. Ever since they got burned so badly with January 2015, just about every public met has taken a very conservative approach until the very last minute. 

I remember that well when the GFS was the ONLY model that showed it missing us in 2015. I know people say shit about the GFS, but it still can nail a few storms every once in a while.

[Snowpsycho]

I'm sure most mets are snow lovers just like us. Would love to hear Lee's unedited version of his forecast. 

[psv88]

Congrats everyone. I’ll be watching this one from Miami Beach. My wife will have to learn how to use a snowblower…she’s not happy 

[wthrmn654]

24 minutes ago, TriPol said:

NWS should upgrade Long Island to Blizzard Watches/Warnings imho.

Watches are eliminated years ago

[nycwinter]

a lot of weather forecasters will have egg on the face did anyone mention the worst euro humper in dt who called the gfs bonkers prediction bs just yesterday..

[Brian5671]

Just now, nycwinter said:

a lot of weather forecasters will have egg on the face did anyone mention the worst euro humper in dt who called the gfs bonkers prediction bs just yesterday..

normally he's right when the GFS is on it's own like that.

[wthrmn654]

This well close schools for days possibly

[SACRUS]

 

2/20 18z ICN Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24

 

[Juturna]

1 minute ago, Snowpsycho said:

I'm sure most mets are snow lovers just like us. Would love to hear Lee's unedited version of his forecast. 

I actually dated the niece of a prominent LI met. He hates inclement weather, legitimately told me so. I lost respect for him at that dinner.

[mob1]

RGEM was kind of meh (relative to my new expectations )

[TriPol]

Let's beat January 2016!

[SACRUS]

 

18z ICON snow 10:1

 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, Snowpsycho said:

I'm sure most mets are snow lovers just like us. Would love to hear Lee's unedited version of his forecast. 

there was a guy at nws years ago who clearly didn't like snow and would write things like, some rain could mix in and save the day.....