Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[weatherpruf]

38 minutes ago, Islandersguy said:

It’s ridiculous, all about money these days for which most of the time is spent on nonsense. That being said let it snow!!


.

schools are where peoples' taxes and children come together. it is among the most important beats a reporter can have. 

[TJW014]

WS Watch issued
"Heavy Snow with total snow accumulations exceeding 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 MPH"

Conservative call for now. 

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The scale of impact of that storm probably makes it 3 or higher. 

The preliminary RSI value for the Northeast was Category 2.

[Metasequoia]

3 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

Agree, geographic area and sporadic maximum snow areas across a large portion of the country. Wondering what NESIS will come in at.

Well... the storm is certainly impactful enough to be ranked on the NESIS scale... and likely at least 3... I agree. If that's the definition of a KU... sure. I have never thought there was a hard and fast standard for KU delineation... it's kind of a you know it when you see it. Am I wrong?

[njwx7]

SREF looking good!

 

[Freezing Drizzle]

36 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This is still playing it pretty conservative for our area. I told my Wife "12 to 18 inches" and she said, "In your dreams" LOL

I think our wives are twin sisters separated at birth.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, TJW014 said:

WS Watch issued
"Heavy Snow with total snow accumulations exceeding 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 MPH"

Conservative call for now. 

No reason to get more specific yet. This is still over 48 hours away. 

[CentralNJSnowman]

38 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This is still playing it pretty conservative for our area. I told my Wife "12 to 18 inches" and she said, "In your dreams" LOL

And then she added "And by the way...I doubt the snowstorm will be that big either"

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 minutes ago, njwx7 said:

SREF looking good!

 

A little too right leaning for my liking, but I'm nitpicking now. 

[wthrmn654]

Plenty of snow pack left too add onto as well! Since  still haven't hit 40°F lol

 

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

28 minutes ago, Islandersguy said:

The overall reason NYC doesn’t have wiggle room is because they now give a holiday for everything because they feel remote learning is sufficient enough.


.

It isn't. I'll leave it at that. 

[dmillz25]

14 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

NYC got about a foot... granted with about 1.8 qpf... just feels not quite enough.  Do others classify this storm as a KU? I would be interested to know. 

Boston got close to 2ft so it would be considered a ku

[Metasequoia]

1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

Boston got close to 2ft so it would be considered a ku

For Boston. Agreed. 

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Well... the storm is certainly impactful enough to be ranked on the NESIS scale... and likely at least 3... I agree. If that's the definition of a KU... sure. I have never thought there was a hard and fast standard for KU delineation... it's kind of a you know it when you see it. Am I wrong?

the impact of the heavy sleet on top of the snow makes it as impactful as a deeper snow; it was a very hard cleanup with crews still working locally even last week. i've never seen cleanup efforts take so long, not even march 93, which was even icier...but it warmed up after a few days. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Wxbear25 said:

The issue is how the models are handling that initial piece of energy to hit the coastline, which is the energy that spawns that “eastern low”

The models have continuously trended towards this being more meridionally oriented, and thus more closely involved with the main s/w energy, with the GFS leading the way to this point in that regard

There won’t be an “eastern low” or a “western low”, at least for any extended time there’s going to be one low, and the question is how well the big chunk of energy can rein in that front running stuff

The GFS is the only model going negative tilt so fast so the low tucks in more near the coast. All the other guidance has the low consolidating a little further east and a slower negative tilt.

The GFS is usually incorrect when its coastal low is the furthest west of all the other guidance. Sometimes the Euro does the same thing.

I would probably shade toward the other guidance at this point and just broad brush the forecast to indicate that the chances for a 6”+ event near the coast are increasing and issue winter storm watches and wait until tomorrow to refine the warnings and higher end potential areas.

[hooralph]

There's no definition of a KU if/until they publish another edition. It was a curated list. It's like a HOF debate in sports.

[TriPol]

I'm nervous about this storm. 50 miles East and NYC gets advisory level snow. 50 miles west and it's a major KU. There's almost no room for error.

[TJW014]

Hold on and love your significant other and kids like Mt Holly does to the NBM

[WeatherGeek2025]

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS is the only model going negative tilt so fast so the low tucks in more near the coast. All the other guidance has the low consolidating a little further east.

The GFS is usually incorrect when its coastal low is the furthest west of all the other guidance. Sometimes the Euro does the same thing.

I would probably shade toward the other guidance at this point and just broad brush the forecast to indicate that the chances for a 6”+ event near the coast are increasing and issue winter storm watches and wait until tomorrow to refine the warnings and higher end potential areas.

considering that the GFS has absolutely owned literally every other piece of guidance so far, I might give it a bit more credence

[golfer67]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I'm nervous about this storm. 50 miles East and NYC gets advisory level snow. 50 miles west and it's a major KU. There's almost no room for error.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

considering that the GFS has absolutely owned literally every other piece of guidance so far, I might give it a bit more credence

Plus there's ensemble support. It's a bit early but the GFS has done really well with this, shockingly so. Very consistent too.

Broken clock type scenario 

[TriPol]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Who is saying this???

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

A little too right leaning for my liking, but I'm nitpicking now. 

Its probably moving a little towards EURO and EURO AI 

[SACRUS]

 

2/20 18z SREF Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23 

 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

considering that the GFS has absolutely owned literally every other piece of guidance so far, I might give it a bit more credence

It’s the always last 12 to 48 hrs of the forecast which really counts. We won’t be there until tomorrow into the Sunday 0z runs. But it’s certainly possible that we get a meet in the middle scenario between the most westerly GFS and the other guidance. 

[NEG NAO]

22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Mt holly issued watches 

They really covered themselves - no upper limit of snow amounts and it extends all the way into Eastern PA

WSW from KPHI

[SACRUS]

 

2/20 18z Summary

 

Total QPF NYC 2/22 - 2/23-24

 

SFRE F: 1.0
NAM: 2.3
RGEM: 0.6
ICON: 1.2
GFS AI AIGFS:  1.5
GFS: 2.2

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I'm nervous about this storm. 50 miles East and NYC gets advisory level snow. 50 miles west and it's a major KU. There's almost no room for error.

There’s very rarely room for error in any major snowstorm we get and the trends are in our favor. I’ll gladly take it. 

[Rmine1]

Upton has rain/snow mix for Sunday?