Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Rjay]

9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah nowhere near the GFS. We still don't know if it's going to be a moderate snowstorm or a very big one, but I'm glad all the models agree on at least a moderate snowstorm now. Getting brushed by a light event looks very unlikely now. 

The writing seems to be on the wall

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/20 12z Summary
 

Total QPF NYC

SREF: 1.2
NAM: 0.9
RGEM: 0.7
ICON: 1.0
GFS: 1.6
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.7
GGEM: 0.6
GEFS: 1.5
UMET: 0.9-1.0
EURO AI AIFS:  0.9
EURO: 0.8
 

 

Updated 12z Sweet (suite

 

1.08 avg qpf mean

[weathermedic]

Bernie Rayno likes the Euro AI the best and says it's about a halfway point between the GFS and the regular Euro.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, weathermedic said:

Bernie Rayno likes the Euro AI the best and says it's about a halfway point between the GFS and the regular Euro.

Bernie always try to play the in between scenario so he doesn't look foolish

[Islandersguy]

remote learning during a snowstorm is a waste of time IMO - here we have 3 snow days each school year built into the Calendar for the school year - used 1 so far

100% non teachers don’t understand what a comical waste it is, especially for the younger grades


.

[Brian5671]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Bernie always try to play the in between scenario so he doesn't look foolish

not a bad idea

[Monty]

I would never subject my kids to remote "learning." It's a snow day in my household. Sled trajectory and shoveling entrepreneurship are much more valuable than whatever teach has ready on Zoom. 

[brooklynwx99]

yeah we're in for it. don't need to see much more than that

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

not a bad idea

true - what is Bastardi saying ?

[Freezing Drizzle]

38 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

i tell people if nothing else, follow him or nj 12. forget the guy's name at nj 12 as i don't have cable, but he is pretty good. or there's the kid at wegman's with the met degree from rutgers, or my neighbor with his met degree who works the window at micky d's....its' tough out there....i've known that kid since he was in grade school with my daughter. he's actually doing alright at mcdonalds, been there a decade.....of course he'd like to take lee goldberg's job....

Dave Curran?  He's been a sole "keeper" with them.  Others from years ago, including Jim Gregorio and Michelle Powers are long gone.

An annoying thing about News 12 weather -- they broadcast old weather spots without indicating so, for years now.  It's really irresponsible.  You'll see what you think is current radar, for example, and realize, "that's from hours ago."

[nycwinter]

kids deserve at least one snow day off without remote learning this may be the last chance they get monday until next winter..

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The writing seems to be on the wall

I think we get very good consensus at 0z tonigh

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Bernie always try to play the in between scenario so he doesn't look foolish

Its a smart forecast at the moment. Riding the gfs would be more foolish

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its a smart forecast at the moment. Riding the gfs would be more foolish

Why is it foolish ? Every model is trending west. 

[weathermedic]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its a smart forecast at the moment. Riding the gfs would be more foolish

He is saying 1-3 in NYC but can see it being bumped up to 3-6.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

true - what is Bastardi saying ?

he's 6-12 DC to BOS locally 18

[weathermedic]

Fox Weather Channel going for 5-8 in NYC

[NEG NAO]

Whats Henry M. predicting ?

[Monty]

What's Larry Cosgrove saying? 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why is it foolish ? Every model is trending west. 

Sure but none are showing close to what the gfs has. The consensus is 6 to 10

[EastCoastKU]

NYC no longer gives traditional snow days because of the NYS 180 day requirement. Snow days are no longer built into our calendar. We cannot dip below 180 days or we lose a percentage of State funding that we rely on. Suburban schools are fed with school taxes so they do not care if funding is lost… that’s why they make their own calendars and rules. It sucks for us to have remote instruction because it’s a lot of work in the upper grades. However, it’s much safer than to have to use our own days or brave the conditions.


.

[SleetStormNJ]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its a smart forecast at the moment. Riding the gfs would be more foolish

As would riding the Euro so hard like Lee Goldberg did earlier this week when he said "not coming".

[WeatherGeek2025]

Mike Masco just followed my weather page lol he wants to take some lessons

[jm1220]

Doesn’t really matter to me what TV met X is forecasting right now, it’ll go up by this evening. 6-12” in the city is probably a good call at the moment, chance highest for 12”+ in Suffolk and coastal NJ. 

[Jt17]

Its a smart forecast at the moment. Riding the gfs would be more foolish

The lowest output is the Euro OP with 7 inches lol


.

[Freezing Drizzle]

24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

he is dedicated he is online live for an entire storm on youtube and other venues 

Maybe Steve tried playing the anti-weenie and got burnt? It happens.

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why is it foolish ? Every model is trending west. 

That doesn't mean they'll trend all the way to the extreme GFS solution. I think the most likely scenario is the GFS backs off somewhat as these other models trends towards it to find a middle ground. A middle ground (6 to 12 inches) would still be a very nice solution. 

[Metasequoia]

NYC has had KUs in 1996, 2006, and 2016. What are the odds we add 2026 to the list...

[WestBabylonWeather]

Well the bad news is that we will have to see monkeys flying out of DTs ass

[Islandersguy]

NYC no longer gives traditional snow days because of the NYS 180 day requirement. Snow days are no longer built into our calendar. We cannot dip below 180 days or we lose a percentage of State funding that we rely on. Suburban schools are fed with school taxes so they do not care if funding is lost… that’s why they make their own calendars and rules. It sucks for us to have remote instruction because it’s a lot of work in the upper grades. However, it’s much safer than to have to use our own days or brave the conditions.


.

It’s ridiculous, all about money these days for which most of the time is spent on nonsense. That being said let it snow!!


.