Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[donsutherland1]

Although the 15z NBM shows highs of 38° on Sunday and 37° on Monday, I suspect that the temperature will be near or just below freezing during the height of the storm. The 38° high on Sunday will occur before the onset of the storm. The 37° high on Monday will likely occur late in the day after the snow has moved away. Based on the standard deviation band, a reading in the upper 20s cannot be ruled out. We'll have to see where things are in the soundings for ratios, but this doesn't look like a low snow-liquid ratio event.

[wthrmn654]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

From here: https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/

Thank you! 

[Freezing Drizzle]

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I'm sure Lee Goldberg will have higher amounts when he comes on later this afternoon. 

Dollars to doughnuts he's waiting for more consensus, based on the next Euro run(s).

[weatherpruf]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

TV is always going to be conservative this far out-by tomorrow different story

viewers do not like hearing snow. they want to hear no snow.....i have friends right now saying it won't snow, it can't snow...not because of facts, but because they do not want it to snow....and those are the ones who are willing to even say the word...i know people who won't even say it.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

viewers do not like hearing snow. they want to hear no snow.....i have friends right now saying it won't snow, it can't snow...not because of facts, but because they do not want it to snow....and those are the ones who are willing to even say the word...i know people who won't even say it.

They definitely don't especially the closer we get towards spring. We're the crazy ones 

[RCNYILWX]

Although the 15z NBM shows highs of 38° on Sunday and 37° on Monday, I suspect that the temperature will be near or just below freezing during the height of the storm. The 38° high on Sunday will occur before the onset of the storm. The 37° high on Monday will likely occur late in the day after the snow has moved away. Based on the standard deviation band, a reading in the upper 20s cannot be ruled out. We'll have to see where things are in the soundings for ratios, but this doesn't look like a low snow-liquid ratio event.

Also the NBM is gonna be incorrect bc there's a lot of time lagging involved in that dataset. If you have a way to view the percentile MaxT data, the 10th or 25th will probably be more representative.

Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

i'm 63 and haven't watched in decades. 60 is young enough to have seen the rise of phones and social media.....

yeah-newcasts are mostly people reading back the news you already saw on the internet earlier in the day-kind of obsolete really-even the sportscast segment is a relic

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Dollars to doughnuts he's waiting for more consensus, based on the next Euro run(s).

i tell people if nothing else, follow him or nj 12. forget the guy's name at nj 12 as i don't have cable, but he is pretty good. or there's the kid at wegman's with the met degree from rutgers, or my neighbor with his met degree who works the window at micky d's....its' tough out there....i've known that kid since he was in grade school with my daughter. he's actually doing alright at mcdonalds, been there a decade.....of course he'd like to take lee goldberg's job....

[MJO812]

Ai west

[TriPol]

Another 50 miles NW and we're locked in.

[hooralph]

Crowd is gathering in Bryant Park for the most important Euro run in the history of humanity.

[TriPol]

19 minutes ago, David-LI said:

ABC 7 going with 1-3" for the city , 3-6" eastern Long Island with their noon update.

They've always been conservative.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah-newcasts are mostly people reading back the news you already saw on the internet earlier in the day-kind of obsolete really-even the sportscast segment is a relic

Believe it or not this forum may actually be the most accurate when it comes to the weather. 

TV news usually lags behind and the stuff on social media & YouTube is mostly an overhyped joke. 

[MJO812]

Euro is already better so far. This will be coming west. 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ai west

Post a qpf map bc it's better than this snow map

[TriPol]

This isn't a terrible place to be 48 hours out.

[Snowpsycho]

15 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I stopped watching them when I started following online forums going back to the AccuWeather/Eastern forums days in the early 2000s a few years before PDII. I always found the weather forums to be more accurate and informative than TV meterologists.

I think I started with Bill Evans weather chat then drifted towards those forums.

[wthrmn654]

First watch gone up

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA

1215 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

 

MAZ020>024-RIZ006>008-210900-

/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0004.260223T0500Z-260224T0000Z/

Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-

Nantucket MA-Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-

Including the cities of Narragansett, Vineyard Haven,

Mattapoisett, Chatham, New Bedford, New Shoreham, Newport,

Falmouth, Fall River, Nantucket, Provincetown, and Westerly

1215 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH

MONDAY EVENING...

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of more than

  6 inches possible.

 

* WHERE...South coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island, including

  Cape Cod and the Islands.

 

* WHEN...From late Sunday night through Monday evening.

 

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are possible at times and may make

  travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

&&

[Nibor]

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Post a qpf map bc it's better than this snow map

 

[David-LI]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

First watch gone up

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA

1215 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

 

MAZ020>024-RIZ006>008-210900-

/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0004.260223T0500Z-260224T0000Z/

Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-

Nantucket MA-Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-

Including the cities of Narragansett, Vineyard Haven,

Mattapoisett, Chatham, New Bedford, New Shoreham, Newport,

Falmouth, Fall River, Nantucket, Provincetown, and Westerly

1215 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH

MONDAY EVENING...

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of more than

  6 inches possible.

 

* WHERE...South coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island, including

  Cape Cod and the Islands.

 

* WHEN...From late Sunday night through Monday evening.

 

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are possible at times and may make

  travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

&&

Wrong sub forum !

[East of the Parkway]

3 minutes ago, Snowpsycho said:

I think I started with Bill Evans weather chat then drifted towards those forums.

Same

[Nibor]

Out to hr 39 on the euro. Ridge is higher, more phasing at the bottom of the trough. Heights out east rising more. Let's see where and how quickly it goes negative tilt.

[mikem81]

[SACRUS]

 

 

2/20 12z EURO AI AIFS Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24

 

[BoulderWX]

34 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

You have it backwards. As a low begins to occlude, it unwinds and the bands spread away from the low

thanks for the correction! still like the areas I outlined for the highest totals but really appreciate the correction! 

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

i tell people if nothing else, follow him or nj 12. forget the guy's name at nj 12 as i don't have cable, but he is pretty good. or there's the kid at wegman's with the met degree from rutgers, or my neighbor with his met degree who works the window at micky d's....its' tough out there....i've known that kid since he was in grade school with my daughter. he's actually doing alright at mcdonalds, been there a decade.....of course he'd like to take lee goldberg's job....

why doesn't your friend try to work for himself online ?? - Steve D. and DT etc. etc. seem to be doing ok.......

[Nibor]

[Eduardo]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Forky thinks a major snowstorm is on the way. We listen when he is bold.

This has actually become the ultimate signal for me over the past decade and a half lol.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

I said start with winter storm watch today at 4pm, upgrade to blizzard warnings tomorrow at 4pm update.

 

I don't do drugs sir. Haha

4 PM tomorrow is very unlikely for Blizzard Warnings especially on a lower than usual travel weekend