Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[SnoSki14]

Just now, eduggs said:

The AIGFS continued a multi-run improving trend and the GFS was another excellent run... but it was actually slightly east of 6z with mid-level and surface lows. Reading the descriptions before checking the model, I expected an improvement. I think unfortunately people mostly just look at the QPF for their backyard when interpreting a model run. Anyway, a minor wobble in an OP run is just noise. The consistency of the GFS, especially considering other model trends, is very encouraging.

Will be looking at GEFS to see if they stay the same or improve

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

After the 12z suite it will probably be ok to bump totals. 

can we do a contest for snow totals?

[MJO812]

Cmc further west but not fully 

[NJwx85]

Canadian moving towards the GFS.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

can we do a contest for snow totals?

You're what's commonly referred to as a jinx.

[WeatherGeek2025]

we just need euro now.

[EasternLI]

This is much better looking than 00z was on the Canadian. 

[SleetStormNJ]

Just now, EasternLI said:

This is much better looking than 00z was on the Canadian. 

That is a great look - I don't need to look at precip or snowmaps.

[mikem81]

FWIW

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma&region=eus&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2026022012&fh=72

[David-LI]

54 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

OmG just admit you were wrong! 

Lol just saw this yes you're right. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You're what's commonly referred to as a jinx.

ok nevermind

[kat5hurricane]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc further west but not fully 

It's a big improvement though. I can't believe I'm saying this but every model is following the GFS. What world are we living in?

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Okay, I'm officially excited. Almost 2" liquid into NYC and 1"+ back into PA and Upstate NY.

Excitement is definitely warranted IMO. But just a little bit of caution to keep the discussion grounded. That 2" liquid to NYC includes about 0.3" from today. And the 6z GFS had more QPF a little further west into PA than 12z.

[Freezing Drizzle]

For the record, January 7-8, 1996 started late on Sunday morning.

Carry on.

ps - If the GFS verifies, I would love a post-mortem read from you guys on what the GFS detected, that the others missed.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Nice

The 12z Canadian also had a nice run showing 6”+ potential closer to the coast.

 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Canadian moving towards the GFS.

Depending on Euro we could see watches late today. All models trending towards a significant (6"+) storm.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just now, Freezing Drizzle said:

For the record, January 7-8, 1996 started late on Sunday morning.

Carry on.

ps - If the GFS verifies, I would love a post-mortem read from you guys on what the GFS detected, that the others missed.

But it also started with temperatures around 13° in the city. Not the same thing here.

[MJO812]

Jma

[SACRUS]

 

2/20 12z GGEM Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24

[Brasiluvsnow]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You're what's commonly referred to as a jinx.

THE MUSH 

 

[nycsnow]

GEFS already leaning more west wow

[MJO812]

Just now, nycsnow said:

GEFS already leaning more west wow

 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'd go with Blizzard warnings for NYC and east!

Include the Eastern most counties of NJ all the way down to Ocean County - BUT just start with a Winter Storm Watch IMO

[SACRUS]

56 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/20 12z Summary
 

Total QPF NYC

SREF: 1.2
NAM: 0.9
RGEM: 0.7
ICON: 1.0
GFS: 1.6
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.7
GGEM: 0.6

Updated 12z Suite total QPF 2/22-2/23-24

 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Include the Eastern most counties of NJ all the way down to Ocean County - BUT just start with a Winter Storm Watch IMO

yeah they don't have blizzard watches anymore so figure they'll do winter storm watches, mention possibility of blizzard conditions than upgrade to blizzard warnings saturday at 4pm update

[Nibor]

[MJO812]

Insane for a mean on gefs

[NEG NAO]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

yeah they don't have blizzard watches anymore so figure they'll do winter storm watches, mention possibility of blizzard conditions than upgrade to blizzard warnings saturday at 4pm update

Can wait till Sunday if they are needed - remember all the requirements have to be met - winds etc. etc.

[Snowlover11]

Omg we get naked for that gfs run, please happen. Lol

[SACRUS]

 

2/20 12z GFS GEFS 24H mean total QPG 18z Monday 2/23