Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[WestBabylonWeather]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ai gfs wow

 

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

AIGFS COMING IN MORE TUCKED 

 

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's actually just a tick South so far.

 

2 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

virgin sacrificing WeatherGeek to guarantee a bountiful graupel harvest

 

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs more north 

 

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

game set. KU

 

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

GFS OMG

[nycsnow]

God 

[WeatherGeek2025]

best run of the year! maybe decade!

[nycsnow]

This runs gonna 15-30 Maryland to Boston my god

[MJO812]

More on Kuchera

[kat5hurricane]

That's a historic depiction on the GFS, kind of speechless looking at that tbh.

Getting some January 1996 vibes with these late north bumps.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like the phase happens in a good spot and the 500mb low consolidates so we have a good enough mid level setup to generate lots of precip for most of us. 

one consolidated low it wobbles a little but it drops a lot QPF SO WHO CARES! wow

[JonClaw]

If I could I'd take this GFS, run with it, protect it, nurture it...

Here's hoping the Euro agrees.

[SACRUS]

2/20 12z GFS Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

[Blizzardo]

Classic KU event! Please Please Happen! Lol

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

More on Kuchera

do kuchera bro

[SleetStormNJ]

Tip of the cap to Forky - called for a possible pattern ending/breaking Archambeault Event with KU potential.

[jm1220]

Just now, MJO812 said:

More on Kuchera

Yep that would be a crushing, shut it down run. 

[TJW014]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

More on Kuchera

Kuchie shows less

[David-LI]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

GFS OMG

[EasternLI]

Chefs kiss on that one 

[NJwx85]

This run occludes about 6 hours later so the deformation banding is able to get further North and West. So just about everyone here would be looking at 12-18" with locally up to 30" possible under the heaviest banding, most likely Suffolk County.

[Blizzardo]

Just now, David-LI said:

I was waiting for this! 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

[Santa Claus]

GFS coup is like watching a dog win an olympic gold medal

[nycsnow]

Gfs is 40-60mph winds for the coast for hours 

[NJwx85]

Since it will be asked, looks like start time would be Sunday early afternoon, from Southwest to Northeast. Heaviest snow would be Sunday evening/night with most of it over by this time on Monday with some residual bands possible as the storm starts to rot just East of the benchmark. 

[SACRUS]

 

2/20 GFS AI AIGFS  Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24 06z

 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I don't care what the clown maps show, 2-4" per hour under this banding.

 

Agreed the surface depiction doesn't capture this as well. Amounts would be higher 

[NJwx85]

Okay, I'm officially excited. Almost 2" liquid into NYC and 1"+ back into PA and Upstate NY.

[nycsnow]

CMC looks better 

[Rjay]

11 hours ago, Rjay said:

It's much closer than you think to something larger.  But as of right now I wouldn't forecast anything more than what you said. 

After the 12z suite it will probably be ok to bump totals. 

[Nibor]

8 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

GFS coup is like watching a dog win an olympic gold medal

Ain't no rules says a dog can't play basketball.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Agreed the surface depiction doesn't capture this as well. Amounts would be higher 

If the GFS is correct, it will be puking snow for about an 8-12hr period on Sunday night.

[eduggs]

The AIGFS continued a multi-run improving trend and the GFS was another excellent run... but it was actually slightly east of 6z with mid-level and surface lows. Reading the descriptions before checking the model, I expected an improvement. I think unfortunately people mostly just look at the QPF for their backyard when interpreting a model run. Anyway, a minor wobble in an OP run is just noise. The consistency of the GFS, especially considering other model trends, is very encouraging.