Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[weatherpruf]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This system has more latitude to come farther north than the 2/6/2010 blizzard had, though there's a limit to how far north it will come. It will depend on the timing and location of phasing and the timing when the trough goes neutral/negative. I suspect 50 miles is within the realm of possibility, as underscored by spreads between the 25th/75th percentile outcomes. In 2010, there was an overwhelming block that precluded the storm's gaining latitude (AO: -5.205; NAO: -0.985) and locked strong confluence into place. In any case, the area of heaviest snows will probably be focused somewhere from the northern Delmarva across central/southern New Jersey barring some large changes. But it is plausible that warning-level snows could extend into northwest New Jersey/adjacent northeast Pennsylvania, NYC's northern/western suburbs, and the southern half of Connecticut.

thanks don

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Earlier phase coming on the GFS

Explosive run coming 

[weatherpruf]

14 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Let's not forget with temps expected to be in the 30s this will be more of a heavy/wet snow with ratios of 10:1 or slightly less.

 

i was wondering about that

[ILoveWinter]

Man, things looking positive for something decent. I’m in the Berkshires right now (snowing quite hard right now btw) and considering heading home earlier on Sunday. 

[TJW014]

MJO and WxGeek are going to blow their load

[NJwx85]

I'm honestly a little shocked. I thought for sure that this would be the cycle that the GFS trended worse but it's already better early on.

 

[Freezing Drizzle]

35 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

yes you can buddy yes you can as long as the visibility is 1/4 of a mile and sustained winds of 35 mph for 4 hours or longer! The warning would come from the snow blowing around and causing low visibility! 

I believe you are technically correct.  After a fluffy snow, if sustained winds occur at blizzard level, but the sun comes out, it's likely still a blizzard, by definition.
In a recent discussion we discussed the "one inch blizzard," don't recall fully, but the sun may have indeed come out after that snowfall ended.

[nycsnow]

She’s a beaut

[Blizzardo]

1 minute ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

I believe you are technically correct.  After a fluffy snow, if sustained winds occur at blizzard level, but the sun comes out, it's likely still a blizzard, by definition.
In a recent discussion we discussed the "one inch blizzard," don't recall fully, but the sun may have indeed come out after that snowfall ended.

He is correct. They happen in the Midwest more than you think. 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

MJO and WxGeek are going to blow their load

ewww

[mikem81]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

She’s a beaut

Surfce LP is slightly east though to start at Hr 48 off the NC coast

[MJO812]

Ai gfs wow

[kat5hurricane]

3 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

MJO and WxGeek are going to blow their load

kat5hurricane as well

[nycsnow]

AIGFS COMING IN MORE TUCKED 

[NJwx85]

It's actually just a tick South so far.

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm honestly a little shocked. I thought for sure that this would be the cycle that the GFS trended worse but it's already better early on.

 

when i see you getting serious, and i believe you used to do the play by plays back in the day, before you had kids and mine were still little, i tend to check on the condition of my snow removal equipment. i need a tire on one of them....

[Santa Claus]

virgin sacrificing WeatherGeek to guarantee a bountiful graupel harvest

[nycsnow]

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Surfce LP is slightly east though to start at Hr 48 off the NC coast

noise

[NJwx85]

990mb to 976mb six hours later lol.

[MJO812]

Gfs more north 

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Ai gfs wow

How did you get it to assimilate your hopes and dreams into its forecast? On a more serious note, it looks terrific. The evolution of the guidance overnight and into 12z so far has been very encouraging.

[brooklynwx99]

game set. KU

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Does it have the dual low or one consolidated low? 

[nycsnow]

Gfs gonna be big for a lot more than 6z imo

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

990mb to 976mb six hours later lol.

BOMBOGENESIS!!!

[nycsnow]

GFS OMG

[jm1220]

Just now, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Does it have the dual low or one consolidated low? 

Looks like the phase happens in a good spot and the 500mb low consolidates so we have a good enough mid level setup to generate lots of precip for most of us. 

[MJO812]

Gfs has blizzard conditions

[NJwx85]

I don't care what the clown maps show, 2-4" per hour under this banding.