ERIN (40 KTS)

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: further W than the 0Z’s recurve at 63.3W with a threat to Bermuda as it ends the run moving NNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 17.8N 35.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2025 24 17.8N 35.1W 1008 30
0000UTC 13.08.2025 36 17.3N 39.1W 1007 30
1200UTC 13.08.2025 48 17.1N 42.2W 1006 28
0000UTC 14.08.2025 60 17.8N 44.6W 1007 29
1200UTC 14.08.2025 72 19.4N 48.1W 1007 32
0000UTC 15.08.2025 84 20.8N 51.7W 1008 31
1200UTC 15.08.2025 96 21.4N 55.0W 1007 30
0000UTC 16.08.2025 108 22.0N 57.9W 1006 34
1200UTC 16.08.2025 120 22.3N 60.2W 1003 43
0000UTC 17.08.2025 132 23.4N 62.8W 1002 44
1200UTC 17.08.2025 144 25.0N 64.3W 1001 47
0000UTC 18.08.2025 156 26.0N 65.4W 999 45
1200UTC 18.08.2025 168 27.5N 66.0W 998 50

[MJO812]

Cmc very close to the coast

[GaWx]

12Z Euro: best of both worlds with it well away from US and also~250 miles W of Bermuda:

[WxWatcher007]

I think a direct U.S. impact is increasingly unlikely, but not fully closed. Worth a closer in Bermuda and Atlantic Canada imo.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro: best of both worlds with it well away from US and also~250 miles W of Bermuda:

Pretty much a perfect track for maximum wave impacts. The storm will be far enough offshore to not directly effect local weather (busy beaches) but close enough that swell decay is negated. Next week will be an interesting one at the beach.

[GaWx]

 I counted 6 of 30 (20%) 12Z GEFS members hitting the Conus. I’m not worried about it and am pretty optimistic the U.S. will not be hit, especially considering the climo related to the current 17.4N latitude so far E in the MDR. But though still small, 20% is the highest since at least 6Z of yesterday fwiw. Likely will go back down later runs today.

[Alfoman]

While I do not anticipate the storm getting to the US coastline, how close she can get is dependent on a few different variables around timing, strength, and steering.

Most of the ensemble spreads that favor a more west outcome keep the storm weaker for a longer period of time during the next 4-5 days. If Erin struggles to intensify, she could drift closer to the islands as the lifting effects of the EC trough won't be felt as much as it would with a deeper storm. How deep that trough dips as it exits the US also could impact the strength of the steering currents underneath. CMC for example keeps Erin weak and at a lower lat accordingly, so you don't see that NNE track component really kick in until Hispanola.  

[GaWx]

The 12Z JMA hits Bermuda directly.