Winter cancelled/uncancelled banter 25/26

[donsutherland1]

The Washington Post has a feature story concerning prediction markets. Far from this form of betting providing insight into the future, the Post's article suggests manipulation through massive numbers of automated transactions of 1 million or more transactions (roughly one every 3 seconds). If so, the prediction value is limited, as perceptions are created to back a given narrative disconnected from actual probabilities (an issue that is much less present in large, deep markets where handfuls of accounts lack the capacity to manipulate prices in most cases). As transactions in any buying-selling decision influence prices, these automated trades almost certainly have a price impact and, in the process, give their users a qualitative advantage by creating a skewed perception about the future.

Not mentioned, but also a consideration, is the possession and use of inside information. Examples where such information might have been involved range from large trades shortly before President made tariff-related announcements e.g., postponing their implementation, and the recent military operation to remove President Maduro from Venezuela (one special forces soldier involved in the operation had placed large bets). 

One image from the piece:

The full story can be found here: https://wapo.st/49o6Jxc

[Santa Claus]

whole country is a scam

[MJO812]

[JerseyWx]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not sure what losing sunlight has to do with anything, when our warmest days aren't until after the solstice.

Make that same post on 12/21 about gaining sunlight then lol.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Not sure what losing sunlight has to do with anything, when our warmest days aren't until after the solstice.

Make that same post on 12/21 about gaining sunlight then lol.

yep there's a lag for sure-even in in the winter the saying goes "As the days lengthen the cold strengthens"

[forkyfork]

getting a few brood ii stragglers

[BxEngine]

18 hours ago, forkyfork said:

getting a few brood ii stragglers

Me too

[forkyfork]

12 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Me too

starting a collection 

[IrishRob17]

7 hours ago, forkyfork said:

starting a collection 

For dinner?

[Stormlover74]

[forkyfork]

every time we get a heat wave the left side of the bell curve has to get all weird about it because they secretly admit our climate is getting warmer from co2 emissions 

[qg_omega]

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

every time we get a heat wave the left side of the bell curve has to get all weird about it because they secretly admit our climate is getting warmer from co2 emissions 

Shocking 

[Nibor]

Not sure if anyone else is in the midst of celebrating but BOC albums are often my snowstorm jebwalk soundtracks.

[Santa Claus]

20 hours ago, Nibor said:

Not sure if anyone else is in the midst of celebrating but BOC albums are often my snowstorm jebwalk soundtracks.

depends on the weather but they’re a solid choice

[NEG NAO]

Looking ahead to 26/27 winter here is more evidence of a Modoki El Nino developing similar to 2009-2010 - time will tell...

 

[rclab]

On 5/22/2026 at 5:48 AM, IrishRob17 said:

For dinner?

Jewelry! ….. As always ……

 

 

[Brian5671]

JB thinks this winter will be like 97-98 so that's it it's canceled this year.

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

JB thinks this winter will be like 97-98 so that's it it's canceled this year.

Means absolutely nothing just like every other long range forecast.  Accuracy on those, no matter how they grade themselves, is similar to pin the tail on the donkey

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Means absolutely nothing just like every other long range forecast.  Accuracy on those, no matter how they grade themselves, is similar to pin the tail on the donkey

Totally agree but he's usually looking for cold/snow so interesting he thinks warm and snowless

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Totally agree but he's usually looking for cold/snow so interesting he thinks warm and snowless

I mean it’s a pretty easy forecast. This is a close the blinds winter for snow lovers. Not every super times a big storm with cold like 82/83 and 15/16. Without that it’s warm pac air with a few modified continental polar cool shots.


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