Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[BooneWX]

Climatology aside, this is the best possible MJO progression we’ve seen in a very long time.


.

[Daniel Boone]

38 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Climatology aside, this is the best possible MJO progression we’ve seen in a very long time.


.

If only we can get the AO and NAO Negative. A weak South displaced PV ala 2015 might still work for Northern Area's. If you want great Odds for SE Snowstorms you want a Negative AO and NAO.  Very rarely we see all these line up anymore. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Early December can work like 2018/2017 but we need that cold entrenched or strong CAD which im just not seing. 

Early December worked last year for the Triad

[wncsnow]

27 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Early December worked last year for the Triad

For what an inch or 2 in a small area? 

[BornAgain13]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

For what an inch or 2 in a small area? 

Come on man.. quit being a KillJoy

[BornAgain13]

2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Early December worked last year for the Triad

That December 2018 storm was amazing. We got 17" up here out of that. 

[wncsnow]

10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Come on man.. quit being a KillJoy

Call it what you want but let's not pretend this was a big storm 

[wncsnow]

Euro is close to something a few times the next couple weeks but there's just enough ridging in tne SE to keep it a cold rain for most. 

[wncsnow]

So close yet so far 

[NorthHillsWx]

16 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

So close yet so far 

Laying the ground for deep snowpack north of us as we enter prime climo. I’m not mad 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

26 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Call it what you want but let's not pretend this was a big storm 

It was festive and whitened the fro in d. It counts!

[NorthHillsWx]

26 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Call it what you want but let's not pretend this was a big storm 

I’d forgotten about this. Last year was a wall to wall winter for the state 

[BooneWX]

I wouldn’t get too caught up in what the models do or don’t show as far as snowfall rn. We’re 2 days in to the pattern change - one that 4 days ago was supposed to last 3 days according to the models and have us near 80° next week. If we keep getting shots of cold air, laying down snowpack to the north, and have an active storm track, we’ll eventually nail one. We havent even entered the optimal phase of the MJO. 

[wncsnow]

10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’d forgotten about this. Last year was a wall to wall winter for the state 

Wall to Wall winter with all of the state west of I95 at or below average snowfall?  The last Wall to Wall winter was 2009/10

[BooneWX]

Point being, if you value any of the outputs on the models beyond roughly 3 days rn, I have some waterfront property in Murphy that I’d like to sell you. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Wall to Wall winter with all of the state west of I95 at or below average snowfall?  The last Wall to Wall winter was 2009/10

I think we were BN December through February with temps and central N.C. saw snow all three months. In these parts it doesn’t get much more wall to wall than that 

[wncsnow]

18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think we were BN December through February with temps and central N.C. saw snow all three months. In these parts it doesn’t get much more wall to wall than that 

It does get a lot more than that but we have settled for "average" or slightly below being a great winter 

[wncsnow]

20 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Point being, if you value any of the outputs on the models beyond roughly 3 days rn, I have some waterfront property in Murphy that I’d like to sell you. 

You have to look at trends. Trends show the SE Ridge being muted but there enough to keep the storm track west. 

[wncsnow]

I urge all of you to look at climatology on webber weather to see how winters used to be. 

https://www.webberweather.com/nc-winter-weather-climatology.html

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It does get a lot more than that but we have settled for "average" or slightly below being a great winter 

From a snow accumulation perspective last winter left much to be desired for a lot west of US1 but we had 3 WSW and 3 events that stayed below freezing throughout the event IMBY. Growing up here that didn’t happen all the time. I’ve lived here long enough to know that doesn’t happen every year. Think we can all agree we are missing that big coastal storm, and 2018 was the last time we got one. That being said central and eastern NC would take last years winter almost any year. Foothills folks are in purgatory 

[wncsnow]

The foothills have averaged between 8-12 (sometimes more) inches of snow per decade generally until recently. For this decade so far we are averaging 3.5. 

[wncsnow]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

From a snow accumulation perspective last winter left much to be desired for a lot west of US1 but we had 3 WSW and 3 events that stayed below freezing throughout the event IMBY. Growing up here that didn’t happen all the time. I’ve lived here long enough to know that doesn’t happen every year. Think we can all agree we are missing that big coastal storm, and 2018 was the last time we got one. That being said central and eastern NC would take last years winter almost any year. Foothills folks are in purgatory 

Yes it's all in where you are located. I just think a true snowy winter is overdue

[BooneWX]

12z was cold. I won’t be surprised if we get the NAO in our court here soon. There seems to be a lot of noise and the models still are processing the MJO progression. If we can score some blocking with this cold, I think we’ll pull  off pre-Christmas for someone. 

[Daniel Boone]

32 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

12z was cold. I won’t be surprised if we get the NAO in our court here soon. There seems to be a lot of noise and the models still are processing the MJO progression. If we can score some blocking with this cold, I think we’ll pull  off pre-Christmas for someone. 

Yeah, just after posting about indexs showing positive AO and NAO just like that the Model's flip to showing them going negative and the very Pattern that's needed.

[metalicwx367]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

Point being, if you value any of the outputs on the models beyond roughly 3 days rn, I have some waterfront property in Murphy that I’d like to sell you. 

You should see the weather models up here in Alaska. They will literally back off on a winter storm the day of the event. 

The amount of microscale effects and terrain up here in Anchorage make this place extremely challenging to forecast for. On November 17th, NWS was forecasting 4-8 inches of snow for the majority of the Anchorage area and we got 0.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

5 hours ago, wncsnow said:

It does get a lot more than that but we have settled for "average" or slightly below being a great winter 

We rarely miss a storm to the south. However, last winter it was suppression city around here. I don't think anyone realized the magnitude of last year's big gulf coast storm. Some locations along the gulf coast got more snow in that one storm than the last 100 years of snowfall combined. Think about all those snowless winters before 2025. That's more impressive than folks want to admit. It set all-time records for cold and snow in many places. I would not call last winter average when looking at the south/southeast as a whole. If we would have had just a little SE ridging... western NC would have been buried instead of coastal areas. Then everybody around here would have talked about it being an A+ winter. Guess it all about perspective.

[BooneWX]

One thing to watch are the consistent pulses of southern stream energy popping up in the long range. That’s been another fly in the ointment the past few years. Last year was a parade of northern stream pieces of energy squashing the southern stream. That’s fine for a novelty event but if you want a big dog, we need less of that this winter.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

52 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

We rarely miss a storm to the south. However, last winter it was suppression city around here. I don't think anyone realized the magnitude of last year's big gulf coast storm. Some locations along the gulf coast got more snow in that one storm than the last 100 years of snowfall combined. Think about all those snowless winters before 2025. That's more impressive than folks want to admit. It set all-time records for cold and snow in many places. I would not call last winter average when looking at the south/southeast as a whole. If we would have had just a little SE ridging... western NC would have been buried instead of coastal areas. Then everybody around here would have talked about it being an A+ winter. Guess it all about perspective.

The last time before last year the Gulf Coast witnessed that type of snow event was 1899 and somewhat 1895. That tells you just how historic last year was!

[NorthHillsWx]

Euro with a big storm around December 9 and looks to be setting up for another at end of run