2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
This should be an active season. The NOAA has issued a La Nina watch. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml That gives 55% of La Nina conditions developing by the Summer.
ENSO subsurface often precedes surface conditions, and can indicate developing ENSO events. Latest TAO/Triton maps have an ENSO subsurface cold anomalies that are -3c in the central-region, which supports La Nina development. Here is a time sensitive map:
Janu
I just did an analysis of CONUS landfalls for RONI ASO -0.50 to -1.00 vs sub -1.00. E = east coast and G = Gulf coast including FL Keys; if storm landfalled on both as a H, I counted it as 1/2 E and 1/2 G (1995’s Erin and 2022’s Ian)
ASO RONI -0.50 to -1.00: every season at least 1
1954: 3 (3E)
1955: 2 (2E)
1964: 4 (2E, 2G)
1970: 1 (1G)
1983: 1 (1G)
1995: 2 (0.5E, 1.5G)
1999: 3 (1E, 2G)
2011: 1 (1E)
2017: 3 (3G)
2021: 2 (2G) AVG: 2.20 (0.95E, 1.25G)
ASO RONI sub -1
