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Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations


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17 hours ago, Powerball said:

This weekend will hopefully be the last freeze of the season, and we can transition into Spring mode.

I noticed during Spring Break (all years but one I was working in Austin, but it applied to South Party Island as well) there was usually one final 2 or 4 day break of 40s at night and 50s day, and more seasons than not that was the final really depressing cool (but not cold enough to snow) snap of winter.  I remember the Central Texas Easter weekend snow of 2007 (I had to check Google for the year).

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On 2/11/2024 at 7:30 AM, cstrunk said:

Southern Tyler had up to 2 inch hail about 30 mins ago. It's headed towards Longview now but should focus on the central/southern part of town and the worst should miss me.

Apparently baseball size hail (2.75 in. diameter) was reported a little further southwest of Tyler on superbowl Sunday morning:

262BEC54-4E8C-4B8D-8EA8-6595043D4447.thumb.jpeg.7dc87b3645d70fb87bfe0d0e8caa20ae.jpeg


It turned out to be more severe wx active than I thought it was going to be in ETX. Especially being early in the morning.

I was a little under the weather, so I wasn’t aware of how potent the environment aloft actually was for large hail. But I definitely see why it happened around there (despite the very limited CAPE in the region), looking at the 12 Z DFW/Fort Worth sounding from that morning:

0CA53E00-7083-4042-AA7D-5A35AFE5FF11.thumb.jpeg.a87f96035a680956fcea8e4227be61d9.jpeg
 

- I circled the parameters of note. But particularly the FZL (freezing level), and WBZ (wet-bulb zero height) ones were definitely both in that SIG hail range. WBZ height wasn’t any higher further east/southeast on SHV & LCH soundings (Shreveport & Lake Charles LA). But anything between 7000’ - 10500’ means a heightened large hail risk. Also have to note that fairly impressive BRN (Bulk Richardson number) shear value @ 200 concerning supercell risk.

F6F11F92-E887-44DC-A48A-B0D83D9547B9.jpeg.a2d61fdd3725b726b83656078889e657.jpeg

E131EBD8-36A5-44CD-8604-1053603ECB85.jpeg.4f4e4b332694c2c9c5b361ddd1526d2a.jpeg
(from NWS glossary: https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php)

*  Shreveport LA observed sounding:
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805948DD-B233-4B56-A04E-50071C6594FC.jpeg.1e66328aec6ab80679afd77a9d0c4c2a.jpeg

- Pretty deep, well-defined 500Mb Low out west over NM on 12Z observed sounding compiled data that morning also.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Looks like Laredo is going to reach & potentially exceed its first 100 F mark of 2024 tomorrow (before end of February), looking at those latest GFS/Euro runs today. And seeing the actual high of 98 F today (even mid 90s in DFW) out there with all this ridging/subtropical high influence that’s been going on aloft since earlier last week.

It’s not extremely unusual on record in February for Laredo to reach 100 F, but there may be a 50+ degree difference further behind Wednesday’s incoming Polar or Canadian front, on Thursday.

Overrunning precip activity in the state late this week not looking impressive on models, but both GFS/Euro showing mid-level LRs will be steep Thursday night with rising PW ahead of some incoming mid-upper level southern stream shortwave energy. So can’t rule some thunder activity over the southern half/coastal region. But any severe storms with the front itself entering the state Tuesday night should stay east/northeast, this time. But, things could get more convectively active again with more severe potential starting early next week as it looks like the more active subtropical jet pattern from Jan - early Feb looks to be coming back at least to an extent in March.

 

On 2/17/2024 at 12:07 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I noticed during Spring Break (all years but one I was working in Austin, but it applied to South Party Island as well) there was usually one final 2 or 4 day break of 40s at night and 50s day, and more seasons than not that was the final really depressing cool (but not cold enough to snow) snap of winter.  I remember the Central Texas Easter weekend snow of 2007 (I had to check Google for the year).

 

Polar air mass intrusions aren’t really uncommon in the whole state during March and even somewhat in April, at least during the past 2 decades. I also recall the 2007 Easter weekend cold snap (which was more unusual as it got into the 30s in STX that Saturday night going into Easter Sunday). There was another notable one in 2004 Easter weekend and it was interesting both had decent elevated thunder events down here at night going into Easter Sunday.

Though I can definitely recall a number of March cold snaps during the 2010s. But most notably in 2014 (March 3rd to be exact), where that was an actual Arctic origin airmass that came into the whole state. It only managed around 40 F during daytime down here in STX (and solid overrunning low-level cloudiness), so the airmass was obviously very shallow. Though I do remember looking at the 0Z March 4, 2014 BRO & CRP observed soundings.

Not only that and even more interesting and awesome this time, there were actual (still elevated) thunderstorms (some fairly strong near the lower Rio Grande on VIL) going on around here in the abnormally cold overrunning environment. And north-northeast from San Antonio - SE/ETX (all sub-severe in the state as far as I can remember even though SPC was monitoring when they got going in the state that evening). As a stout mid-level southern stream shortwave was coming in from Mex. It was definitely cold enough aloft in ETX for all winter precip types (thunder sleet/graupel, snow, and freezing rain).

But seeing actual CG lightning bolts going on a couple miles just behind my backyard and 38 F actual temp outside down here…, man that was just crazy awesome.

There was also ample MUCAPE with that activity back then (around 1000 j/kg), to note as well. Not like these Low/very low CAPE severe events that have been happening in the state recently earlier this month and in January. Which could be concerning going into spring this year.

- - - - -

Here’s a snapshot of the archived mesoscale discussion SPC had put up for freezing rain that evening back in March 2014:

6BF03737-210B-4D99-87EA-0DA6AF7A3154.thumb.jpeg.a564e47d51cb813b9c236fb4c5dd036d.jpeg

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On 2/17/2024 at 12:07 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I noticed during Spring Break (all years but one I was working in Austin, but it applied to South Party Island as well) there was usually one final 2 or 4 day break of 40s at night and 50s day, and more seasons than not that was the final really depressing cool (but not cold enough to snow) snap of winter.


By the way, I’m assuming that was a typo for ‘South Padre Island’.

But the way you wrote it is legit pretty much what it is anyway there in deep STX  lol

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On 2/26/2024 at 8:34 PM, Stx_Thunder said:

Looks like Laredo is going to reach & potentially exceed its first 100 F mark of 2024 tomorrow (before end of February), looking at those latest GFS/Euro runs today. And seeing the actual high of 98 F today (even mid 90s in DFW) out there with all this ridging/subtropical high influence that’s been going on aloft since earlier last week.

It’s not extremely unusual on record in February for Laredo to reach 100 F, but there may be a 50+ degree difference further behind Wednesday’s incoming Polar or Canadian front, on Thursday.

Overrunning precip activity in the state late this week not looking impressive on models, but both GFS/Euro showing mid-level LRs will be steep Thursday night with rising PW ahead of some incoming mid-upper level southern stream shortwave energy. So can’t rule some thunder activity over the southern half/coastal region. But any severe storms with the front itself entering the state Tuesday night should stay east/northeast, this time. But, things could get more convectively active again with more severe potential starting early next week as it looks like the more active subtropical jet pattern from Jan - early Feb looks to be coming back at least to an extent in March.

 

 

Polar air mass intrusions aren’t really uncommon in the whole state during March and even somewhat in April, at least during the past 2 decades. I also recall the 2007 Easter weekend cold snap (which was more unusual as it got into the 30s in STX that Saturday night going into Easter Sunday). There was another notable one in 2004 Easter weekend and it was interesting both had decent elevated thunder events down here at night going into Easter Sunday.

Though I can definitely recall a number of March cold snaps during the 2010s. But most notably in 2014 (March 3rd to be exact), where that was an actual Arctic origin airmass that came into the whole state. It only managed around 40 F during daytime down here in STX (and solid overrunning low-level cloudiness), so the airmass was obviously very shallow. Though I do remember looking at the 0Z March 4, 2014 BRO & CRP observed soundings.

Not only that and even more interesting and awesome this time, there were actual (still elevated) thunderstorms (some fairly strong near the lower Rio Grande on VIL) going on around here in the abnormally cold overrunning environment. And north-northeast from San Antonio - SE/ETX (all sub-severe in the state as far as I can remember even though SPC was monitoring when they got going in the state that evening). As a stout mid-level southern stream shortwave was coming in from Mex. It was definitely cold enough aloft in ETX for all winter precip types (thunder sleet/graupel, snow, and freezing rain).

But seeing actual CG lightning bolts going on a couple miles just behind my backyard and 38 F actual temp outside down here…, man that was just crazy awesome.

There was also ample MUCAPE with that activity back then (around 1000 j/kg), to note as well. Not like these Low/very low CAPE severe events that have been happening in the state recently earlier this month and in January. Which could be concerning going into spring this year.

- - - - -

Here’s a snapshot of the archived mesoscale discussion SPC had put up for freezing rain that evening back in March 2014:

 

That early March 2014 In Tyler featured a night of heavy thundersleet followed by a day with highs around 20 and lake effect flurries.

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The fire situation NE of Amarillo is horrible. The main complex consisting of Windy Deuce Fire, near Lake Meredith, and Smokehouse Creek Fire, started near Stinnett and now crossing into Oklahoma, has officially burned over 500k acres. If you measure the the perimeter of hot spots this morning from this complex you get something closer to 1.5m acres. There are other large fires scattered around the Panhandle also.

image.thumb.png.a14f4c57f18f3715563bfce1a8469ca5.png

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Been seeing some persistent thunder clustering (likely elevated, seeing tops no more than about 30 Kft on ET radar) going on around DFW the past couple hours.

Things seem to be winding down for now, (especially with not much CAPE in place on 12 Z observed sounding this morning). But there was some pretty powerful CG strikes around the area on lightning data earlier this afternoon with this one being the strongest I saw on analysis:

5C87310C-A3C3-4FA3-8469-AB8DAB1F5093.thumb.jpeg.027251925ec00cbfd5ebc2e6291ada62.jpeg

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3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Winter returns in a week.  Not cold enough for anything fun, just cold.  I'd expect to have warm stretches in March w/ daytime highs AOA 80F, and after this week, I don't see it.  May see some severe N of here Thursday and Friday, but I don't see enough warmth for anything after that.

gfs_T2ma_us_37_Brrr.png

Using a 200+ hour gfs run doesn’t convince me it will happen. What is the gefs showing

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On 3/10/2024 at 10:44 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

GFS and Euro ensembles are singing the same song.  Not like I was calling for a snow storm 8 days out.

eps_T2ma_us_36.png

Coming down for some R&R at the end of the month. Hopefully we’ll see an 80…

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Seeing a few high-based thunder cells popping up from an incoming ML shortwave across deep south since before sunrise this morning. BRO/CRP NWS offices did not forecast anything for today until they saw it now but already had somewhat steep ML lapse rates on Brownsville 0Z sounding yesterday evening.

Already a good sign a more convectively active pattern is starting to return as later this week/weekend should be pretty fun with a parade of shortwaves coming in a more active southern stream. Potentially even part of next week seeing latest Euro runs as it got this morning’s sporadic high-based thunder activity around here right. Euro has been doing pretty well thunder-wise over TX since the beginning of the year.

‘Was not seeing very good reasoning with SPC’s D 4-8 severe risk highlights over the northeastern half (DFW region) as shear values were already projected to be modest there (consistently around 40 kts on both GFS & Euro the past couple days). And trending even more modest now on very latest runs on both models last night, for Thursday afternoon/evening. Though not too surprising on SPC’s part as they’ve been overforecasting the risks in the state lately. There may be a couple of supercells initially, but not seeing any kind of sustained/significant severe risk. Except for frequent lightning, smaller hail & heavier rainfall/flash flooding moreover. Might be a better severe risk in the southern half this weekend with higher shear values.

 

CC6DB633-5310-4C6C-80B7-3B3CFF99BA01.jpeg.3624e78b32c657df05b6a1644ff18f4f.jpeg

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2 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Seeing a few high-based thunder cells popping up from an incoming ML shortwave across deep south since before sunrise this morning. BRO/CRP NWS offices did not forecast anything for today until they saw it now but already had somewhat steep ML lapse rates on Brownsville 0Z sounding yesterday evening.

Already a good sign a more convectively active pattern is starting to return as later this week/weekend should be pretty fun with a parade of shortwaves coming in a more active southern stream. Potentially even part of next week seeing latest Euro runs as it got this morning’s high-based thunder activity around here right. And it’s been doing pretty well since the beginning of the year.

‘Was not seeing very good reasoning with SPC’s D 4-8 severe risk highlights over the northeastern half (DFW region) as shear values were already projected to be modest there (consistently around 40 kts on both GFS & Euro the past couple days). And trending even more modest now on very latest runs on both models last night, for Thursday afternoon/evening. Though not too surprising on SPC’s part as they’ve been overforecasting the risks in the state lately. There may be a couple of supercells initially, but not seeing any kind of sustained/significant severe risk. Except for frequent lightning, smaller hail & heavier rainfall/flash flooding moreover. Might be a better severe risk in the southern half this weekend with higher shear values.

 

CC6DB633-5310-4C6C-80B7-3B3CFF99BA01.jpeg.3624e78b32c657df05b6a1644ff18f4f.jpeg

Good instability, the NAMs show a pretty stout cap.

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Good multi early season MCS/MCC with lots-o-lightning potential (cutoff Low out west & projected steep mid-level lapse rates esp. on Euro), eastern to southern half Thursday nite - Sunday:

4DF05F27-9973-485E-ACFC-9A1BE2093D2B.thumb.png.b12332c74fd9073ba1a25feb8c5342c7.png
 

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8B71FBB7-0FC7-47FB-8226-B7509C3AED0E.thumb.png.45534285126b2e88829c83fa5254deeb.png

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Seeing new, fairly strong thunder development with the dry line/front closer to Abilene area right now with one embedded supercell near Coleman that was apparently producing 2” hail just a short time ago.

The more reliable ARW2 and NSSL convective models are showing things organizing into some sort of linear MCS around DFW area (seeing some cells trying to initiate just north of there now also), and propagating south through ETX and toward Houston this morning (Friday) like the globals had been indicating the past days. Models are also insistent on some actual thunder cells (possible supercell or two) firing along the Rio Grande near Laredo overnite and moving east/northeast but that seems to be very conditional for tonight. Though I’m seeing one little thunder cell popping up not too far southwest of Brownsville right now also.

There’ll likely be a significant outflow generated with N/ETX activity if it does organize and that would serve for renewed convective development later in the afternoon or evening closer to Del Rio - San Antonio - Houston area. Which still looks interesting for some severe potential into this evening. Then again Saturday and into STX also.

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Looks like another decent thunder show for the mid-upper coastal region with building elevated instability later tonight/Thursday morning (cap/MUCIN strongly forecast by globals & CAMs to erode overnight with a fairly strong ML shortwave coming in from the west). Could have a couple of supercells near or just off the coast also with sufficient DL shear in place again around or just under 50 kts, but looks like strongest stuff will be offshore (sfc-based instability out there).

SPC also has marginal & slight risk outlined for the mid-coast region tonight - through Thursday night.

Despite more limited moisture further north, there looks to be another convective round & severe hailers Thursday evening/night in the Eastern half and towards Houston as that same cutoff parked Low over the desert southwest for about a week now (that caused last weekend’s storms & severe) begins to open up and move off to the east through NTX/OK, bringing stronger lift & colder mid-level temps over the eastern half of state tomorrow afternoon/evening.

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Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for the mid-upper coastal region this morninghttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0057.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0274.html

- - - - -

Almost thought the typical BL capping was going to win out on the lower-mid coast because it took all night, but had a nice little multicell cluster pop up close by and fast an hour ago. Fairly frequent lightning, 2 very close CGs, and heard a few pieces of small hail on the roof just before the core moved off.

60446BE6-563F-4301-B722-B04DF8F570C8.gif.0b7ae391766e2dc47ea14eebefde44c9.gif

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2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

In a severe warning at 6:30, fair amount of lightning but no hail or strong winds.  No warnings but impressive line segment NW of San Antonio currently.


Supercell got going there in San Antonio a short while ago and dropped tennis ball hailstones in the northwest area. A good ways bigger than what the radar was indicating in the cell (1.25”). A couple of other reports around 2.00” in that same area of the city also.

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B50645D7-DE48-4EC1-84EA-F390397761C2.jpeg.92bd74f17bfe3753045cd070cb75ca01.jpeg

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  • 3 weeks later...

2 inch PW is more common in August.  Severe signal is muted Monday in East Texas on NAM, long skinny CAPE from a near saturated sounding although impressive hodo, closer to I-35, nice EML and better CAPE, but hodos not good.  6Z Euro has widespread 4 inch 48 hour rainfall with near 7 inch bullseyes in Piney Woods.  GFS not as dramatic and a smidge N, but a signal for excessive rainfall in N and E Texas.  WPC has N and E Texas in a SLIGHT RISK area Monday and Tuesday for excessive rain.  WPC 5 day QPF over 5 inches extreme E Texas to the ArkLaMiss.

ExcessiveRain.png

2inchPW.png

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A little surprised nothing still hasn’t been mentioned at all about it on here (only being 2 days away now), but 2023 - 24 winter, is not actually done completely for TX just yet..

GFS has been consistent on it for a week now, and now that the AO has apparently entered a new negative phase, a very late season Polar front looks to edge through most, if not entire state by Sunday night (even though airmass duration is obviously going to be brief being next to May now).

Canadian now showing lows Monday morning (22nd), in the 30s near DFW (I’m sure this is still significantly below normal for later April standards up there). 40s, San Antonio & Houston.

Other models not as cold at that timeframe which explains why NWS is still being very conservative in state forecasts, but 12z NAM this morning (which always does best with these shallow polar and arctic air masses), at the end of run does show air temp at 50 F by Saturday evening in NTX. More likely 40s with forecast elevated thunder activity ongoing behind front Saturday afternoon, causing stronger evaporative cooling effects.

Potential MCS (may be a few supercells/iso severe with 40kt DL shear on Euro) further south moving through the central/southern half ahead of front into the evening Saturday.

-

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