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June/July 2023 Severe Discussion


Quincy
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There’s been a lot of speculation, but it appears increasingly probable that an uptick, quite possibly to above average levels, of severe thunderstorm activity occurs across the central United States next week. It may, perhaps, continue into late June, but that remains to be seen as ensemble data fluctuates.

FACA038D-384C-4ADB-B2CE-D7A536FD3D7C.gif.031f30f47e907e2ed33aa654861896d5.gif

It starts with a gradual breakdown a persistent Plains upper level ridge. While Great Lakes/Northeast troughing may persist, we’re moving into a time of year where it doesn’t take much troughing off the Rockies/High Plains to set off a series of severe thunderstorm threats. It should be stressed that just because there’s troughing with enhanced deep layer wind fields and favorable moisture, doesn’t mean we’re going to see a series of tornado outbreaks. For all we know, it could be a lot of heavy rain associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), but after a quiet start to June, any way you slice it, severe threats should increase. 

It starts with an anomalously far south (given time of year) trough ejection across the southern Plains around the Tuesday-Thursday (June 13-15 time frame). The result looks a lot like a May-type pattern, only to occur unusually late in the season. 

At this stage, Oklahoma, Texas and eastward toward the mid-South could see a late season, final hurrah to their severe season. 

I dug up some analog data, based on the day 6-10 progs. The top 3 analogs all produced at least one late season (June) significant tornado in Oklahoma. (1963, 1972 and 1998). The 4th analog (1979) produced significant tornadoes in Arkansas, very late in their climatological season, on June 28th. 

Several dates in June 1998 match the medium and long range progs. This was a month that featured above average tornado activity across the U.S., most notably across Oklahoma, Iowa and even Indiana and eastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. 

CFS progs have consistently zeroed in on next week for the potential increase in supercell favorable environments. You will notice that the late June signal has been a bit more inconsistent. 
9DAED0C2-CF51-4220-850C-A8E562657C28.thumb.jpeg.34c1e610cefeeb294642415e2f771b55.jpeg

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  • Quincy changed the title to Mid-June: Severe Potential Increasing

Maybe seeing a smidgen of consistency on the last few GFS runs that somewhere in southeastern Kansas could be interesting next Tuesday, with a potentially significant threat in the mid-South on Wednesday (Rather than haul @$$ for this I might chase lesser potential portrayed over portions of KS/NE for that day). Still far out but some eyebrow-raising EHI values being shown over the NE/IA/KS/MO confluence region on multiple consective runs for next Friday with a system that comes in behind the first one. Consistency falls apart pretty quickly for Father's Day weekend with wild run-to-run differences in how that second system is handled beyond Friday 6/16.

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Model consistency continues to grow for the middle of next week, with respect to severe potential from the Southern Plains toward the Mid-South. EPS mean 500mb winds of 50-60 knots at such southern latitudes is impressive for Mid-June. You have to imagine some members are showing 60+ knots, which is high-end, given climatology.

FWIW, today’s CFS has shown its hottest run for late June, to-date, but long range progs will continue to vary…

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Appetizer for next week's show, SPC increased size of tornado and sig severe hail on the late morning SWODY2.  Airmass just SW of DFW Metro at late afternoon tomorrow with a lot of CAPE, including 1500 J/Kg of down cape.  STP of 4, don't see that (or 40 knot deep shear) often in mid June, but there you go.

CAMS mixed, as they yesterday, for what turned out to be a pretty decent severe weather (hail, impressive wind, and a lot of lightning damage), and were a bit slow on the arrival.  W/NW flow event storms that survive to Houston often arrive earlier than predicted on models.  

2023060912_NAMNST_034_32.16,-95.92_severe_ml.png

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I wish I could see any raindrops.

As per the 12z convection-allowing models, there should be a few storms in E Texas at 18z that will fall apart and leave behind some form of an outflow boundary. Then, there will probably be several cells forming into an MCS south of Dallas. It seems like there may be a corridor of over 200 m2/s2 of storm relative helicity and 30kt to possibly 40kt of shear powering up these cells. Also, as you may have seen in Ed's post (the previous post,) the forecast sounding has high SHIP (sig hail parameter) and so forth. So, hail of 1"-2" should be quite likely, with maximum hail over 2" possible. As per Ed (previous post) I wouldn't be surprised if the MCS continues more eastward or southward towards Houston than today's 12z models are showing.

 

refcmp_uh001h.us_sc.png

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  • Quincy changed the title to Mid-June Severe Threats: 6/11-??
1 hour ago, andyhb said:

Lol Tues/Wed look done at this point, ULL over the Great Lakes is crushing/suppressing anything that tries to eject those two days.

Maybe done from a Southern Plains chasing standpoint, but a 50+ knot jet is still (most likely) going to streak across the south-central states. 

Current progs show a target around the Arklatex, maybe back toward DFW. Messy terrain and sloppy HP storms, maybe, but 50-60 knot deep shear vectors out of the W/WNW overspreading 70s dew points and remnant EML could spell trouble. Even if it’s far from a chaser-friendly setup.

Wednesday is comical as the target may be suppressed down to near I-10 in Louisiana. More of a March/April setup than mid-June. It wouldn’t surprise me to see an HP slopfest in southern Louisiana. Then the death ridge builds a few days later. You go from brief summer to suppressed flow to deep sumner in Oklahoma in June. Welcome to jet weirding.

I am cautiously optimistic that week 2 lights up across the north-central U.S., assuming we don’t get a retrograding Great Lakes cutoff or a rogue western GOM hurricane. 

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DFW looks to get a few more shots at severe weather tomorrow through  Tuesday, although again highly conditional depending on both frontal placement and the timing of subtle MCVs riding the ridge.

So the odds of a complete shut out this entire period seems low, but nothing shocks me about the weather any more.

Temps could also get tricky as well on Monday with a potential late-season CAD setup.

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Looks like several several threats through this work week across the Southern Plains as an active southern tier jet pattern establishes.

Was woken up by an elevated supercell this morning around 4:45 AM. Other supercells continue as I type this.

Oklahoma/Texas, enjoy this week, because a building ridge means deep summer will soon lock in.

I’m eyeing the central/northern Plains around the d7-10 window for severe potential, hoping it’s not lost in the models like previous long range fantasy setups. 

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  • Quincy changed the title to Mid-Late June Severe Discussion: 6/11-??

Houston is only forecast to reach 97F today.  Low 100s all week, but HGX disco holds hope, dry mid-levels will allow low level humidity to mix out.  But Summer is locked in here.  DFW has 3 more days of spring before summer locks in.

 12Z 3 and 12 km NAMs have nothing.  Latest HRRR seems to show little except a splitting supercell, with the left split making it to the Metroplex

 

HRRR_DFWLeftSplit.png

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The fun never stops. SPC already throwing cold water on Father's Day weekend into the following week.

  Late this weekend through early next week, latest medium-range
   guidance appears to be trending toward the evolution of another
   prominent high in the southern Hudson Bay to upper Great Lakes
   vicinity, subsequent to mid/upper trough amplification over the
   interior West.  This may be accompanied by generally weakening flow
   across much of the U.S., and a return to sparser, less organized
   daily severe weather potential.

   ..Kerr.. 06/13/2023
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there was a tornado confirmed at Conlen, TX. This large supercell/squall combination has been producing large hail, and there have been other unconfirmed tornado warnings

Quote

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southern Sherman County in the Panhandle of Texas...
  East central Dallam County in the Panhandle of Texas...

* Until 615 PM CDT.

* At 531 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles east of
  Conlen, or 8 miles south of Stratford, moving southeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado at 522 pm.

 

possible tornado cactus tx.jpg

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25 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Looks like today was a dud for much of NTX

It's been a dud for Addison the entire period, probably one of the few areas in the entire Metroplex to not get any severe weather what so ever the past 1-2 weeks (or even a t'storm). I suppose it's a good thing in that we've avoided the hail damage...

I'm sure Mansfield, DeSoto and Cedar Hill will get some more monster hail late tonight / early tomorrow morning with the next round looming.

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  • Quincy changed the title to June/July 2023 Severe Discussion

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