June 2023 Summer Begins

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We can do gusty outflow just fine with marginal shear profiles. HRRR has been spitting out 50 knot gusts at times since yesterday.

Pretty textbook inverted-v tectbook profiles. Even crazier off to our Southwest. Pretty crazy to see a critical fire risk in the Northeast/mid-Atlantic due to dry thunderstorms and concerns for lightning strikes outside of convection to potentially spark fires. 

[TalcottWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Severe is already hard to do around SNE. Now throw in some smoke, and *poof*. 

It really does have that orangey glow of a mid-summer late evening. 

S/w might deliver far w but it looks like I'm driving home through a wildfire right now. I'm skeptical of svr. 

Marginal (a) limited in extent, significance, or stature close to the lower limit of qualification, acceptability, or function : barely exceeding the minimum requirements

[Great Snow 1717]

A strong odor of smoke in Methuen ....perhaps coming from Fenway Park???

[Ginx snewx]

30 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

I couldn't remember a day with AQI this high so I traveled to the CT.gov site, and looked up historical AQI data. 

I reviewed last 20 years, AQI above 100, using 8hr AQI highs. 

The data suggests an over performing, and highly anomalous event. Already nearing 160 AQI in Cornwall, where 112 AQI was predicted by DEEP. 

It has been very dry over past few weeks. The mix of that alongside dry conditions gives this day a post apocalyptic feel. 

don’t see a reading over 100 AQI at any site since 2016. According to the CT Gov site, the AQI max for today will vary between 126 AQI and 114 AQI.

 

This would make it quite the day in terms of air pollution compared to historical data if this is accurate.

 

2003, JUNE 25TH, STRATFORD, 125 AQI

2003, JUNE 25TH, MADISON, 124 AQI

2003, JUNE 26TH, GREENWICH, 124 AQI

2006, JUNE 18TH, WESTPORT, 117 AQI

2003, JUNE 27TH, MADISON, 117 AQI

2003, JUNE 26TH, MADISON, 115 AQI

2003, JUNE 26TH, STRATFORD, 114 AQI

2003, JUNE 26TH, GROTON, 113 AQI

2003, JUNE 26TH, WESTPORT, 113 AQI

2003, JUNE 27TH, GROTON, 112 AQI

2003, JUNE 25TH, WESTPORT, 112 AQI

2006, JUNE 18TH, EAST HARTFORD, 111 AQI

2004, JUNE 9TH, MADISON, 111 AQI

2006, JUNE 18TH, MIDDLETOWN, 110 AQI

2005, JUNE 26TH, DANBURY, 110 AQI

2005, JUNE 26TH, MIDDLETOWN, 110 AQI

2003, JUNE 25TH, GREENWICH, 106 AQI

2005, JUNE 26TH, MIDDLETOWN, 106 AQI

2005, JUNE 26TH, STAFFORD, 106 AQI

2003, JUNE 25TH, DANBURY, 106 AQI

2008, JUNE 10TH, GREENWICH, 105 AQI

2005, MAY 25TH, MADISON, 105 AQI

2006, JUNE 18TH, STAFFORD, 105 AQI

2003, JUNE 24TH, GREENWICH, 105 AQI

2012, JUNE 29TH, GROTON, 104 AQI

2003, JUNE 25TH, GROTON, 104 AQI

2003, JUNE 25TH, DANBURY, 103 AQI

2007, JUNE 27TH, STRATFORD, 101 AQI

2010, SEPT 2ND, STRATFORD, 101 AQI

2011, JUNE 8TH, WESTPORT, 101 AQI

2018, JULY 22ND, MIDDLETOWN, 100 AQI

 

Imagine living in India with a million others in a city.

[Ginx snewx]

[Sey-Mour Snow]

There goes TIP’s big heat wave on 12z gfs kicks in later next week. GFS has been waffling on that idea. 

[ineedsnow]

Just went up Wachusett this smoke is wild!

No viewing anything today

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

There goes TIP’s big heat wave on 12z gfs kicks in later next week. GFS has been waffling on that idea. 

Yeah it's been back and forth for several days on this. I am really hoping we can get some decent convective threats my last week of vacation. 

[TalcottWx]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Imagine living in India with a million others in a city.

No thank you. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

There goes TIP’s big heat wave on 12z gfs kicks in later next week. GFS has been waffling on that idea. 

Along with the tropical in the Gulf of Mexico in a big trough diving into the plains. GFS thinks it’s September.

[CoastalWx]

Should be some isolated strong maybe a severe cell or two in parts of SNE this afternoon.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be some isolated strong maybe a severe cell or two in parts of SNE this afternoon.

this isolated crap makes it difficult to figure out where to go. That SVR looks decent, but is likely to fizzle once it becomes outflow dominant. 

[mreaves]

3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That guy must be behind bars by now 

I think he’s dead. 

[BrianW]

57 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

I couldn't remember a day with AQI this high so I traveled to the CT.gov site, and looked up historical AQI data. 

I reviewed last 20 years, AQI above 100, using 8hr AQI highs. 

The data suggests an over performing, and highly anomalous event. Already nearing 160 AQI in Cornwall, where 112 AQI was predicted by DEEP. 

It has been very dry over past few weeks. The mix of that alongside dry conditions gives this day a post apocalyptic feel. 

don’t see a reading over 100 AQI at any site since 2016. According to the CT Gov site, the AQI max for today will vary between 126 AQI and 114 AQI.

 

This would make it quite the day in terms of air pollution compared to historical data if this is accurate.

 

2003, JUNE 25TH, STRATFORD, 125 AQI

2003, JUNE 25TH, MADISON, 124 AQI

2003, JUNE 26TH, GREENWICH, 124 AQI

2006, JUNE 18TH, WESTPORT, 117 AQI

2003, JUNE 27TH, MADISON, 117 AQI

2003, JUNE 26TH, MADISON, 115 AQI

2003, JUNE 26TH, STRATFORD, 114 AQI

2003, JUNE 26TH, GROTON, 113 AQI

2003, JUNE 26TH, WESTPORT, 113 AQI

2003, JUNE 27TH, GROTON, 112 AQI

2003, JUNE 25TH, WESTPORT, 112 AQI

2006, JUNE 18TH, EAST HARTFORD, 111 AQI

2004, JUNE 9TH, MADISON, 111 AQI

2006, JUNE 18TH, MIDDLETOWN, 110 AQI

2005, JUNE 26TH, DANBURY, 110 AQI

2005, JUNE 26TH, MIDDLETOWN, 110 AQI

2003, JUNE 25TH, GREENWICH, 106 AQI

2005, JUNE 26TH, MIDDLETOWN, 106 AQI

2005, JUNE 26TH, STAFFORD, 106 AQI

2003, JUNE 25TH, DANBURY, 106 AQI

2008, JUNE 10TH, GREENWICH, 105 AQI

2005, MAY 25TH, MADISON, 105 AQI

2006, JUNE 18TH, STAFFORD, 105 AQI

2003, JUNE 24TH, GREENWICH, 105 AQI

2012, JUNE 29TH, GROTON, 104 AQI

2003, JUNE 25TH, GROTON, 104 AQI

2003, JUNE 25TH, DANBURY, 103 AQI

2007, JUNE 27TH, STRATFORD, 101 AQI

2010, SEPT 2ND, STRATFORD, 101 AQI

2011, JUNE 8TH, WESTPORT, 101 AQI

2018, JULY 22ND, MIDDLETOWN, 100 AQI

 

https://fire.airnow.gov/#

[weatherwiz]

Maybe Lee is a good spot 

[TalcottWx]

Now we've got storms firing down the valley north of us, I haven't looked at the severe parameters at all compared to here. They have geographic enhanced stuff to help it along up there, one is severe warned. 

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Now we've got storms firing down the valley north of us, I haven't looked at the severe parameters at all compared to here. They have geographic enhanced stuff to help it along up there, one is severe warned. 

Severe risk is definitely higher than I expected, but smoke hurting daytime heating is the type of thing that could completely negate the risk. 7.5 C/km ML Rates is quite high. 

[weatherwiz]

I don't think the smoke is a huge hinder. At least per mesoanalysis, there doesn't appear to be any CIN and our instability is the result of the steep lapse rates. Surface temperatures are into the 70's which is enough to have MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/KG. If anything, the lower dewpoints are the bigger hinder, at least for more scattered-to-numerous development. 

[weatherwiz]

Lee is about a 50-minute drive from here so going to head there in a few and just see what happens. 

[weatherwiz]

Gotta remember...setups which contain steep mid-level lapse rates need to be treated differently. If we didn't have steep lapse rates, the smoke negating any convection would certainly become a larger factor as we would need to be much more reliant of strong sfc heating to help boost CAPE. 

[TalcottWx]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think the smoke is a huge hinder. At least per mesoanalysis, there doesn't appear to be any CIN and our instability is the result of the steep lapse rates. Surface temperatures are into the 70's which is enough to have MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/KG. If anything, the lower dewpoints are the bigger hinder, at least for more scattered-to-numerous development. 

That storm near Saratoga Springs just intensified rapidly. Can see wind increasing on upper tilts. Looks healthy. Good sign for later. 

[TalcottWx]

..A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Tolland,

southwestern Worcester, east central Hampshire and east central

Hampden Counties through 315 PM EDT...

 

At 226 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near

Ware, or 15 miles east of Amherst, moving southeast at 25 mph.

 

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

 

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

 

IMPACT...Little to no impact from hail is expected.

 

Locations impacted include...

Southbridge, Auburn, Oxford, Charlton, Palmer, Spencer, Leicester,

Ware, Sturbridge, Warren, North Brookfield, West Brookfield,

Brimfield, Brookfield, Hardwick, Holland, East Brookfield, Wales, New

Braintree and Union.

[weathafella]

I’m surprised we reached the mid 70s today with this smoke.  That’s a solid +20 diurnal.

[TalcottWx]

Bridgeport, Stratford, Westport 161 AQI. Torrington 160 AQI. 

 

[FXWX]

Here's a comparison of today's (top) smoke density to the plume in late May (bottom)...

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Lee is about a 50-minute drive from here so going to head there in a few and just see what happens. 

Good luck 

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 hours ago, tamarack said:

The Chicago fire was spread by howling winds.  220 miles to the north, those same winds brought a firestorm down on the lumber mill town of Peshtigo, killing about 1,500.

I read about that fire when I was a youth... loved reading about natural and manmade disasters.  I cannot even fathom how people dealt with that in the 1870s.  No real communication or way to fight fire.

 

The Maine fires in the 1940s always intrigued me

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I read about that fire when I was a youth... loved reading about natural and manmade disasters.  I cannot even fathom how people dealt with that in the 1870s.  No real communication or way to fight fire.

 

The Maine fires in the 1940s always intrigued me

Ever hear about the big Chelsea MA fire?

[Cyclone-68]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I read about that fire when I was a youth... loved reading about natural and manmade disasters.  I cannot even fathom how people dealt with that in the 1870s.  No real communication or way to fight fire.

 

The Maine fires in the 1940s always intrigued me

I heard another theory recently that sparks from that tragedy in Wisconsin may have started the Chicago fire?

[Typhoon Tip]

58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Along with the tropical in the Gulf of Mexico in a big trough diving into the plains. GFS thinks it’s September.

Yeah... we may get heat in that time range ...don't know about "big" per se. But sure, the indices give room for that. However, I don't know if we get there by way of this GFS

It doesn't seem to matter what time of year, the GFS defaults to too much geopotential gradient. I've yammered about this for years - since around 2015 really. Since NCEP began churning new versions every 15 months, that these next gen global forecast system products have a problem with cumulatively gaining too much negative heights on the polar side of the westerlies.  If you compare any other guidance on D10 ish ... some 60 ... 80 percent of the times, the GFS will have a colder medium N of the westerlies' core.

That's why it has a progressive bias ... however subtle and/or improving it is ... It ends up with too much gradient = too much balanced geostrophic wind = unsafe wave propagation and bigger R-wave structures.  

That run at 12z looks like all this to me.