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Severe Threats 5/10 thru 5/12


Quincy
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It looks like a robust severe threat may evolve Wednesday and Thursday, focused on the Central Plains, as a trough ejects from the Four Corners region toward the central states.

Given the forecast surface evolution, the favored region for severe activity focuses on northeastern Colorado and vicinity on Wednesday. Lee cyclogenesis, mesoscale forcing, upslope flow, sufficient destabilization and favorable wind fields suggest there may be a threat of large to very large hail and isolated tornadoes. 

As the surface low pivots toward South Dakota, additional severe storms are possible on Thursday around the north-central Plains. Isolated activity farther south along the dryline could also develop.

It’s a few days out, so details are still TBD, but at this point it looks like a noteworthy setup. Considering the pattern turns ugly this weekend into next week, this may be one of the last bigger events until we get into late May. 

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  • Quincy changed the title to Severe Threats 5/10 thru 5/12

Quick update:

Added Friday to this thread, as parts of the region may be impacted by additional severe thunderstorms.

Thursday has also trended a bit farther south, much of the severe threat may remain over Kansas.

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Day 1 Enhanced Risk from northeastern Colorado toward the CO/KS/NE border area. Driven by significant hail potential and 10% tornado risk via SPC. 
day1otlk_1630.gif

I tend to think the tornado risk may not be as apparent, at least not with westward extent across Colorado, but we’ll see. CAMs have not showed much of a consistent signal out that way and right now there’s high pressure and cloudiness lingering.

My gut says northwestern Kansas has a somewhat better shot at tornadoes, given higher quality moisture, proximity to a frontal boundary (likely nudging north as a warm front later today). The caveat is that storm modes may be quite messy. 

Will follow up in a bit for tomorrow with the upcoming Day 2 Outlook from SPC.

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SPC has upgraded parts of Kansas and Oklahoma to an Enhanced Risk tomorrow. This includes a significant tornado delineation from south-central Kansas into central Oklahoma.

day2otlk_1730.gif

The greatest risk for scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms appears to be across the western half of Kansas. A more isolated risk is anticipated farther south, but any storms that can initiate could be quite intense. Particularly across the western half of Oklahoma. 
 

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36 minutes ago, Quincy said:

SPC has upgraded parts of Kansas and Oklahoma to an Enhanced Risk tomorrow. This includes a significant tornado delineation from south-central Kansas into central Oklahoma.

day2otlk_1730.gif

The greatest risk for scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms appears to be across the western half of Kansas. A more isolated risk is anticipated farther south, but any storms that can initiate could be quite intense. Particularly across the western half of Oklahoma. 
 

Seems to be plenty of these this season that escalate pretty quickly over a 1-2 day period.  

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A complex setup today across Oklahoma. Arcs/bands of severe storms seem most probable across western to central Kansas today. Threat becomes more conditional to the south. Some additional thoughts in this thread:

 

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Will be interesting to watch convective trends for DFW the next few hours.

The cap has completely eroded and pretty aggressive moisture advection is underway, but the better forcing is well to the NW. That said, some fairly modest convergence exists along the dry line and it's beginning to trigger some convection right now around Stephenville (not projected by the CAMS).

Will also have to see what happens with the outflow boundaries from convection upstram across Southern OK, which could also act as triggers.

I did notice the marginal risk area was expanded pretty far SE in the last update.

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