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Brian5671
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48 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Perfect. Just in time for my kids baseball game 

My son’s game is at 3pm. I’m sure they’ll call the games for tomorrow early in the morning. SLL already postponed the all star game that was scheduled for tomorrow.

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15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

RGEM West and a drencher for many

1684666800-7NG3mHGmotI.png

That would be brutal with the heavy rain missing most of NJ just to the east. Hopefully the HRRR and 3km NAM will be correct about the heavy rain making it back into NJ. Obviously an extremely difficult forecast right now. 

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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

That would be brutal with the heavy rain missing most of NJ just to the east. Hopefully the HRRR and 3km NAM will be correct about the heavy rain making it back into NJ. Obviously an extremely difficult forecast right now. 

may see some more ticks to the west...3K NAM seems to be leading the way on this....

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9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Would be hysterical if this goes west enough to shaft much of LI after models 12 hours ago were mostly east. 

reminds of this winter when every storm trended west and ended up over Buffalo.    WAR has been undermodeled forever

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13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

reminds of this winter when every storm trended west and ended up over Buffalo.    WAR has been undermodeled forever

Somehow NJ always finds their way into these significant rain events. Can’t think of many LI/CT special rain events over the last 10 years (big exception the 2014 record soaker for ISP). 

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Looking at the latest WV loop a potent kicker over the western Lakes and southern stream S/W progressing steadily along should serve to keep moisture plume over eastern NC and offshore waters moving more eastward than northward.  No real sign of western edge of mid and high level moisture making it more westward since this morning.  Sharp western edge and has not made any progress to the left.   I'm in the model camps that are featuring drier west and wetter east.  Generally favoring .25" to .50" for most of NJ with the .25" closer to the Delaware and the .50" closer to GSP....as a rough guide.

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18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It's going to be horrible if the Euro ends up being right. No rain in sight after saturday ... we'd be looking at a whole month of no rain. 

Yup. Once the ridge takes over the country it’s over for rain chances the rest of the month 

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